Tonight's matchup between the Washington Mystics and the New York Liberty should produce a predictable outcome as it pits a team with real championship aspirations against a reeling opponent heading nowhere fast.
The Mystics are at the top of the Eastern Conference, with a stellar defense leading the way. The Liberty, meanwhile, are seriously struggling this season, only having secured two victories this as injuries have piled up.
If you're looking forward to a close contest, you likely won't get it in this matchup. Find out more by reading our free WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Mystics on Friday, June 3.
Liberty vs Mystics odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Liberty vs Mystics predictions
Predictions made on 6/03/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Liberty vs Mystics info
• Location: St. Elizabeth's East Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Friday, June 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-DC, YES
Liberty vs Mystics betting preview
Key injuries
Liberty: Betnijah Laney SG (Out), Jocelyn Willoughby SF (Out), DiDi Richards SG (Out), Nyara Sabally C (Out).
Mystics: Alysha Clark SF (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Liberty are 5-19-2 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Liberty. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mystics.
Liberty vs Mystics picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
These two teams couldn't be on further sides of the championship conversation right now. On one hand, the Mystics are 7-3, and tied for the best record in the Eastern Conference with the Connecticut Sun. The Liberty? They're 2-7, and sitting at the bottom of the East.
While picking the Liberty against such a large spread may be tempting, I'd caution bettors with this approach as things just haven't panned out smoothly this season. The Mystics are an impressive 8-2 ATS in 2022, and that has shown little signs of slowing down. Already a well-balanced team with many weapons, they became nothing short of a title contender with the return of future Hall of Fame forward Elena Delle Donne.
Donne's return adds an explosive weapon as she's posting an impressive stat line of 17.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 48% shooting. While playing slightly better, as evidenced by winning a recent victory against the Fever, the Liberty are still overmatched. They've scored under 80 points in five out of their last six games.
The offensive struggles are due to a stagnant offense, ranked last in the entire league in points per game (72.2) and second to last in assists to turnover ratio (1.3). Combining the Liberty's woeful offense with the Mystics' exceptional defense is a bad combination for New York.
The Mystics have a reputation for swarming on defense and forcing teams into poor shots. Opponents average just 73.3 points per game against Washington, which shouldn't change much in this matchup.
While Liberty's marquee player, Sabrina Ionescu, is still trying to navigate her young career, I wouldn't expect Friday night's matchup to be the moment she blossoms. Take the Mystics against the spread.
Prediction: Mystics -12 (-110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
The Mystics are one of the more formidable teams in the league, but they don't score as much as other top contenders. The Mystics score 80 points per game, which is just the seventh-best out of 12 teams. The backbone is the defense, and this figures to be a low-scoring contest when you put all the factors into perspective.
The Liberty are the worst offensive team in the WNBA today. They are currently last in points per game, plus field goal and 3-point percentage. Points are tough to come by for the Liberty, and it won't be any easier against the Mystics.
Natasha Cloud, Shakira Austin, and Ariel Atkins are all ranked in the Top 10 for defensive win shares in the WNBA. It's tough to figure out where points will come from for the Liberty, who don't have a single player averaging more than 14 points per game. To date, the Liberty possesses a 4-5 record to the Over, while the Mystics are just 1-9.
When you look at the Liberty's failing offensive combined with an elite Mystics defense, the Under is a strong play.
Prediction: Under 155 (-110 at BetMGM)
Best bet
The Mystics aren't just an excellent basketball team; they are an impressive team against the spread, posting a stellar 8-2 mark. There are very few reasons to believe the streak will end tonight, as the two teams are far apart in terms of talent and execution.
The Liberty don't have enough on their roster, with no reliable offensive firepower. Look for this matchup to get out of hand quickly, making the Mystics ATS an ideal bet for this game.
Pick: Mystics -12 (-110 at Caesars)
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