Jalen Brunson Odds and Props: Nesmith's Range Gives Knicks Star Fits

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks can close out the Indiana Pacers on Friday in Game 6 and punch their tickets to the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you our best Brunson player prop bet.

It was another Jalen Brunson masterclass performance in Game 5, as Brunson scored 44 points and led the Knicks to a 30-point victory and, more importantly, a 3-2 series lead. However, I'm fading Brunson on Friday in my free NBA picks and predictions for Friday, May 17.

Don't miss our full-game Knicks vs. Pacers predictions as well as our Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks.  

Jalen Brunson prop picks for May 17

• Under 34.5 points (+100 at Pinnacle)
• Under 34.5 points/Over 3.5 turnovers/Over 3.5 rebounds (+625 at bet365)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jalen Brunson best bet

Jalen Brunson pick: Under 34.5 points

The best Jalen Brunson odds for Friday really come down to your ability to price shop and what number you can grab on a certain prop when you are looking at his odds. With that being said, there is a rogue Under 34.5 points (+100) at Pinnacle for his points prop, and at this number, you have a slight edge.

So why do I lean towards the Under at 34.5 points for Brunson? Well, with Brunson, you're never going to completely shut him down in a game; his role within this New York Knicks offense doesn't allow for that. He will always be a high minutes and usage player, but that's also why his total is so high at 34.5.

The Indiana Pacers have a defender who can be just disruptive enough to Brunson that he can hold him Under this total, and that is Aaron Nesmith. Rick Carlisle has to commit to playing Nesmith as the primary defender on Brunson for as many minutes as Nesmith can handle. Andrew Nembhard and Ben Sheppard are not the answer, and the wingspan of Nesmith does bother Brunson.

Carlisle faded Nesmith's minutes in the first half of Game 5 because he believed he had three fouls, and during the minutes when Nembhard and Sheppard filled in as the primary defenders, Brunson torched the Pacers. The speed of T.J. McConnell and the wingspan of Nesmith are both disruptive to Brunson. There's nothing Nembhard can do that bothers Brunson, and it's not a knock on his defense; it's just not a good matchup. If that isn't obvious to the Pacers coaching staff by now, I don't know what to say.

Not only do I think we will see a commitment from the Pacers to leave Nesmith on Brunson permanently for extended minutes, but I also think we will see them blitz and send doubles a lot sooner in the game. The Pacers consistently wait too long to bring these coverages, but at this point, they are desperate and out of options. If they start bringing them in the first quarter, it will force the ball out of Brunson's hands, and he can't score if he doesn't have the ball.

Brunson is projected to score 34.2 points on Friday against the Pacers, which allows us to price the Under at 34.5 points at -115, but it is available at Pinnacle at +100.

Prop: Jalen Brunson Under 34.5 points (+100 at Pinnacle)

Jalen Brunson same-game parlay

Jalen Brunson Under 34.5 points

Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 turnovers

Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 rebounds

+625 at bet365

On top of Nesmith being the primary defender the entire game, our path to Brunson going Under the total of 34.5 is dependent on the Pacers sending double teams and blitzes all game. We've seen from Brunson in the past that when this happens, he can be prone to some turnovers because he isn't the biggest guard who can see over the top of the double team.

Also, a blitz is much different for Brunson when it is Nesmith with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and Myles Turner, rather than, say, McConnell and Turner, as McConnell has a 6-foot-2 wingspan. If you expect these types of coverages from the Pacers and Nesmith to spend the entire night shadowing Brunson, then Over 3.5 turnovers is definitely in play.

Another Brunson prop you can look to play is Brunson Over 3.5 rebounds. The Knicks are playing small with Miles McBride in the starting lineup so they can apply more defensive pressure to the Pacers' backcourt. This lineup construction for Thibodeau could result in more rebounding chances for Brunson.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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