The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds wrap up a four-game series with Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.
Will the home team be ripe for an upset with an uncertain starting pitcher situation, or will the cream rise to the top? Read on for my MLB picks and Reds vs. Dodgers predictions for Sunday, May 19.
Reds vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers -1.5 (+132 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Despite dealing with a multitude of starting pitcher injuries, the Los Angeles Dodgers still have the league’s best run differential at +84 through their first 48 games.
I’ll bet on them navigating an uncertain starting pitching situation successfully once again on Sunday against a Cincinnati Reds team that is 3-7 in its last 10 games and sports a -6 run differential on the year.
The Reds send Hunter Greene to the mound. He rocks an impressive line with a 3.27 ERA, 2.65 xERA, and 3.22 FIP. That being said, I’m not sold he’s turned things around after finishing with a 4.82 ERA and a grotesque 1.42 WHIP in 2023.
He’s still mostly a two-pitch (fastball-slider) guy who generates a lot of strikeouts and walks. His walk rate is at 10.1%, which is the highest of his career. The main thing that’s changed about his profile this season is that he’s induced more soft contact.
The flamethrower has lowered his BABIP from .339 to .285, his barrel rate from 9% to 3.8%, and his hard-hit rate from 43.4% to 31.6%. I find those moves unsustainable and expect contact quality regression sooner rather than later.
One doesn’t simply lower their home run to fly-ball rate from 14.3% to 5% without making major changes to their pix mitch or offerings, and the luck could start to turn this Sunday against a fearsome Dodgers lineup (123 wRC+ against right-handed pitching) with sustained winds of 10.3 mph blowing out to right field.
On the flip side, Dave Roberts has yet to announce a starter for Game 4. It’s expected we see either youngster Landon Knack (2.81 ERA through 16 innings) called up from Triple-A or a bullpen game.
Either option sets up well for success against a Cincinnati lineup with the worst wRC+ (72) and third-worst wOBA (.276) in May. The Dodgers have been stellar in relief with a 3.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP out of the pen.
Reds vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Hunter Greene Over 2.5 walks
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases
Greene has struggled with his command in the past and this year is no different. He’s walking 3.8 batters per nine innings and faces a patient Dodgers lineup that has the league’s highest walk rate (10.8%) against right-handers.
The 24-year-old’s contact quality is due for regression and I’ll bet on one of the punishers being Freddie Freeman. He has just one hit in his six prior plate appearances against Greene, but the one hit did leave the yard. I can’t pass up the plus money on his total base prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Dodgers odds
Reds vs Dodgers live odds
Reds vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-150) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +145 | Los Angeles -170
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Reds vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cincinnati is just 2-7 in Greene’s nine starts. The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 overall and are 10-13 away from home.
- L.A. has a pretty 16-9 record at home and is 9-1 in its last 10 inside Dodger Stadium.
- L.A. had trended toward the Over at home, going 17-8 O/U.
Reds vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 home games and have covered the run line in eight of those wins. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers
Reds vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Ohio, SportsNet LA |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Hunter Greene (2-2, 3.27 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | TBD |
Reds vs Dodgers latest injuries
Reds vs Dodgers weather
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