The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder sit tied 2-2 in their Western Conference semifinal, but the series may not be as close as that seems. The Thunder are two-bucket home favorites tonight, having regained momentum in the series with their fourth-quarter comeback in Game 4.
While Oklahoma City may keep that going, my Mavs vs. Thunder prediction has found the best value with a Dallas role player.
Let’s continue to trust Daniel Gafford in our free NBA picks on Wednesday, May 15.
Mavs vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 points (+118 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Daniel Gafford exploded onto the scene just about as soon as the Dallas Mavericks acquired him in February. After he moved into the starting lineup in early March, he averaged 24.3 minutes, 12.7 rebounds, and 7.1 rebounds in 18 genuine games — “genuine” meant to exclude a nominal appearance in the regular season’s penultimate contest against the woeful Detroit Pistons.
After not playing much against the Clippers in the first round, simply a casualty of that specific matchup, Gafford has regained his standing against the Oklahoma City Thunder. This series may strike some as a four-game sample size, and thus a worrying one, but in reality, it is more a continuation of his time as a Dallas starter through March and April.
Viewing the first-round dip as the six-game anomaly in a 28-game stretch underscores the value in Gafford's props right now. More precisely, view them as a five-game anomaly. Gafford averaged 17.4 minutes, 4.8 points, and 3.0 rebounds through five games vs. L.A. Then, Maxi Kleber got hurt five minutes into Game 6.
From that point forward, Gafford has returned to his usual Maverick form, averaging 23.7 minutes, 12.0 points, and 7.4 rebounds. Some of that has been picking up part of Kleber’s production. More of it has been Gafford fitting well against Oklahoma City’s relatively undersized frontcourt. Chet Holmgren’s length does not match well against Gafford’s explosiveness.
Yet, sportsbooks have not completely rallied Gafford’s props as they should have. Again, treat Gafford like the first five games of the Clippers series never happened and he has put up 2.5 months of 12.0 points and 6.9 rebounds. Furthermore, his game tends to be eerily consistent. He grabbed seven or more rebounds in 14 of those 24 games, including seven games of exactly seven rebounds.
He scored 10 or more points in 17 of those 24 games, including five of exactly 10. Both his rebounding prop and his points prop should be considered but given that rate of reaching double digits, which includes four of Gafford’s last five games, betting on 10+ points at plus money is too valuable to ignore.
Mavs vs Thunder same-game parlay (SGP)
Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 points
Daniel Gafford Over 6.5 rebounds
Kyrie Irving Over 5.5 assists
Three of Gafford’s four field goals in Game 4 came off Kyrie Irving assists, the fourth coming from Luka Doncic. Leaning on Gafford in any respect should come with a nod toward one of Dallas’s two lead playmakers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavs vs Thunder odds
Mavs vs Thunder live odds
Get the latest Mavs vs Thunder NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
Mavs vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +4.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +160 | Oklahoma City -190
- Over/Under: Over 215 (-110) | Under 215 (-110)
Mavs vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened as 5.5-point favorites after they won Game 4, a spread that fell to -4.5 by the following morning. It cratered at -4 early on Wednesday before rallying back to -4.5.
- The total opened at 215 and dropped to 213 by Tuesday morning. Notably, three of this series’s four games have gone Under their totals, despite the continual dropdown. Game 1’s total closed at 218.5, while Game 4’s tipped at 215.5.
- Despite the total crashing down to 213, 72% of the betting at handle at BetMGM, as of Wednesday morning, was on the Over, though with only 56% of the tickets.
Mavs vs Thunder trend
Dallas is 30-16 against the spread on the road this season, including 3-2 ATS in the postseason and 3-2 outright. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.
Mavs vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Mavs vs Thunder latest injuries
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