Vegas Golden Knights

Picks

The Golden Knights have struggled offensively in this series and it's warranted as Dallas is the best defensive team in the West. The Knights rank 15th of 16 playoff teams in terms of expected goals/60 at 5-on-5 which is a fancy way of saying that aren't creating many quality scoring opportunities. Dallas took both games in Vegas in the series despite being outshot and Jake Oettinger looks locked in. It's an elimination game so likely fewer power-play chances for both sides. Vegas' forwards have not spent a lot of time together with the injuries and Dallas is on a role. I like the Under but I like this plus-money play better. 

Marchessault has been held to a single assistover  the past three games despite being on the ice for the 2nd-most expected goals and 2nd-most ice time among Vegas forwards. The Golden Knights also have an unsustainably low 2.3 team shooting percentage with Marchessault on the ice during the stretch. Additionally, I expect the new-look No. 1 line of Marchessault, Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl to have a strong game after driving possession with a 59.3 CF% at 5-on-5 in Game 5.

Hertl joined Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault on the No. 1 line in Game 5, and Hertl finished the game with three individual high-danger scoring chances and was on the ice for 1.57 expected goals. The trio also finished with a 59.3 CF% at 5-on-5, and I also value Vegas returning to T-Mobile Arena and having the advantage of last change. Additionally, Hertl paces the Golden Knights in individual expected goals (2.21) and individual high-danger scoring chances (eight) during his active four-game point drought.

Pietrangelo registered just a single shot on 11 attempts over the past two games, and for the series he has recorded 3.07 shots and 11.24 attempts per 60 minutes. Pietrangelo posted respective 5.61 and 12.61 marks and converted 44.5% of his attempts into shots during the regular season. He’s only converted 27.3% of attempts into shots in Round 1. I also expect him to log big minutes in this elimination game to help close the gap between his shots and attempts.

Dallas continues to turn this series on its head, winning straight games after dropping the first two at home. Across those three wins, goaltender Jake Oettinger is 3-0 with a commanding .937 SV% and 1.84 GAA. This hot streak is a continuation of a dominating end to the regular season. Oettinger is now 10-3 over his past 13 starts with a .934 SV% and 1.74 GAA. This success is likely to continue against a Vegas Golden Knights offense struggling to generate high-danger scoring chances.