Las Vegas @ Golden State picks

Golden State has been consistently outperforming expectations as an expansion team this year. The Valkyries rank fifth in the league in defensive rating, something they’ve relied on even as they lost their best scorer in Kayla Thornton for the year to a knee injury. Golden State is 4-2 since Thornton went down. The Las Vegas Aces continue to have an up-and-down season, going 3-3 in their last six without a single game being decided by less than 10 points. With Tiffany Hayes likely back in the lineup for Golden State tonight, I like the Valkyries to bounce back at home and cover as an underdog in a game they might win outright.

Jewell Loyd’s move to the bench has proven highly beneficial for her production. Across her last four games, she’s averaged 16.8 points and 3.5 triples while shooting 51.2% from the field and 43.8% from beyond the arc. Loyd has knocked down at least two triples in three of those, including seven against the Golden State Valkyries in her last outing.

Las Vegas superstar A'ja Wilson is averaging 21.3 points and 9.2 boards this season, and she’s got 12 double-doubles to her credit across 25 appearances. Two of those have come against Golden State, and she’s averaged 21.7 points and 12 rebounds in three matchups with the Valkyries.

Veronica Burton continues to pile up counting stats, but her combo line remains appealingly low at just 19.5. On the season, she’s averaging 20.2 points + rebounds + assists, including a 21.1 PRA average at home compared to a 19.6 on the road.