Man United vs Liverpool Predictions and Picks: Van Dijk Dictates Possession for the Reds

Two bitter rivals have their eyes on a place at Wembley, and Manchester United and Liverpool will face off Sunday in the FA Cup quarterfinals to see who will make the trip to London. 

Manchester United have never lost an FA Cup match to Liverpool at Old Trafford, and Erik ten Hag will remind his players they pulled off a stunning 2-1 win over their rivals last season in the Premier League. With multiple players returning to the squad this week, they’ll hope to get a second result against the Reds this season.

Jurgen Klopp’s men want to get him as many trophies as possible in his final season in charge, and few things would be sweeter than advancing towards that goal while simultaneously denying their rivals any silverware. Mohamed Salah is back in the side, and Liverpool will hope they can find a way to break down the Red Devils after attempting 34 shots in December without scoring.

Our Manchester United vs. Liverpool picks and predictions for their FA Cup match on March 17 explain how Manchester United’s tactical setup will cause one player in particular to pace much of the play.

Man United vs Liverpool odds

Man City		Liverpool
+300	Moneyline	-125
+320	Draw	+320
Over 2.5 (-225)	Total	Under 2.5 (+170)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on March 16, 2024.

Man United vs Liverpool picks and predictions

I don’t bet on passes very often. It’s a tricky market, and your analysis can quickly go out the window with an injury that changes formation or an early goal that forces a team to play differently than anticipated.

But with Liverpool, there’s always one constant when it comes to passing — Virgil van Dijk’s going to make plenty of them. The Dutch defender has attempted 2,051 passes so far this Premier League season, with only six players attempting more. And he’s very accurate, with only five players completing more on the campaign. 

In case you’re wondering, that’s an average of 78.9 pass attempts per contest and nearly a pass per minute. But when you build out of the back as the Reds do, and you have a player who is as skilled as van Dijk, he’s going to be given lots of chances to start the push forward.

It's also his performances against the Red Devils, and the way ten Hag is likely to set up his team, that has us backing van Dijk to have an even bigger impact on Sunday. He’s averaged 86 passes over their last four matches with him on the pitch, and we’re betting on him to attempt at least 84 passes before the end of regulation on Sunday.

Let’s go back to that aforementioned draw in December. Manchester United players must have walked out of Anfield with welts all over their bodies, as they were throwing their bodies around to block every shot they could. Liverpool managed just eight shots on goal, despite attempting 34 shots on the day, and held Manchester United to just six attempts in total.

And ten Hag was fine with this. He went to Anfield looking to get a point, and that’s exactly what he got. By bunkering inside their own penalty area, the Red Devils forced Liverpool to play at a distance, firing from range and trying to score from one of their 12 corners. Van Dijk even had three shots on the day, putting two of them on goal.

But more importantly, Liverpool had nearly 70% possession that afternoon. Liverpool defender Ibrahim Konate attempted 106 passes, a staggering number. However, van Dijk wasn’t far behind, as he attempted 84 passes — the exact figure we’re betting him to hit again on Sunday.

Go back to last season, though, and you’ll see what happened when Manchester United actually came out of their shell a bit. The Red Devils tried to play with Liverpool at Anfield, and Liverpool humiliated them with a 7-0 win while holding less than 60% possession. Van Dijk wasn’t on the ball much as they were able to run at Man United, thus he had just 47 passes.

But in their 2-1 shocking loss at Old Trafford, van Dijk once again had to face a hunkered-in Man United side. Liverpool had 70% of the ball, and the defender racked up 92 passes on the day. His defensive partner, Joe Gomez, had a whopping 101 to his name.

What makes this bet even better is the fact that Trent Alexander-Arnold won’t be playing on Sunday. In their last two meetings, TAA had 50+ passes and was one of the primary playmakers for Liverpool. He also won't have Alisson behind him, which means he’s typically getting on the ball after goal kicks.

That’s led to van Dijk being more involved lately against big clubs. He had 79 passes against Manchester City last week and totaled 97 in a 3-1 loss to Arsenal in February.

Van Dijk will be instrumental in helping keep possession and break down Man United’s low block as they push numbers into the penalty area. Bank on him having at least 84 passes for the fourth time in his last five matches against the Red Devils.

My best bet: Virgil van Dijk 84+ passes (+100 at TonyBet)

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Man United vs Liverpool same-game parlay

Virgil van Dijk Over 82.5 passes

Mohamed Salah to score or assist

Liverpool Over 7 corners

+1,000 at bet365

Along with backing VVD, we’ll bank on either a goal or an assist from Mo Salah. While he obviously failed to contribute to a goal in the scoreless draw in December, Salah was involved in a goal in his six previous outings against the Red Devils. In total, he’s got 12 goals and four assists in his nine matches against Man United since 2020, and he will be going against Victor Lindelof, who is a center-back playing out of position at left-back.

Only two teams have attempted more corners than Liverpool in the Premier League this season. Earlier this season, they accumulated 12 corners in a goalless draw against Manchester United, a team that ranks second in the league for conceding corners. We’ll back them to get at least eight here, adding plenty of heft to our parlay.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Man United vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis

Liverpool are favored on the 3-way money line to win within regulation, despite history being against them. Not only have the Red never won an FA Cup tie at Old Trafford, but they’ve suffered 10 eliminations from the competition at the hands of the Red Devils.

That said, the Red Devils have only scored in three of their last nine matches with Liverpool, which is why they’re priced as high as +300 to win in regulation. Oddly enough, the draw has the longest odds, with +333 on offer.

Man United were able to hit Manchester City on the counter in their matchup two weeks ago and held City at bay for nearly an hour before finally falling apart. I’ll likely wait to play something live and see how the first 15-20 minutes play out.

I’m doing the same with the total. The 0-0 draw showed that Man United can keep Liverpool out of the goal, even with them managing over 2.0 xG on the day. The total for this match is juiced beyond words for the Over 2.5, with a price of -200 being the best you’ll get. 

Ultimately, I expect this to be a very cagey affair, so you could likely wait a bit and get a much more manageable price live.

Man United vs Liverpool game info

Man United vs Liverpool key injuries

Man United: Luke Shaw D (Out), Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Anthony Martial F (Out), Mason Mount M (Out), Jonny Evans D (Out), Tyrell Malacia D (Out).
Liverpool: Trent Alexander-Arnold D (Out), Joel Matip D (Out), Thiago M (Out), Alisson GK (Out), Curtis Jones M (Out).

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