Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Bam Adebayo will see a ton of touches on the offensive end; he has to. The Heat only have so many options on offense, and with his total for his assists prop trading at 3.5 (+135), I really like the Over in this spot. Most of Adebayo's potential assists will be dependent on role players knocking down jump shots, and in the NBA Playoffs, we always see role players knock down more shots when playing at home. I also like with this prop for Adebayo that in the two games the Heat were blown out by the Celtics, he still played 36 and 38 minutes. This is impactful for me when evaluating this bet because the projection we have for Adebayo is only 35 minutes. Adebayo is projected to have 4 assists for the Heat on Monday. 

Porzingis is a nightmare matchup for the Heat and their plodding frontcourt. He's killing them in the pick-and-roll and getting to the foul line for easy points. The unicorn has scored 18 points in two of the first three games of this quarterfinal and Gsme 4 models range from 16.7 to a ceiling closer to 20 points, with all projections on the other side of 14.5 O/U. This market is as high as 16.5 O/U at some shops, so shop around for the lowest possible total.

With the Pelicans assigning Herb Jones as the primary defender on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and giving a lot of attention to Jalen Williams as well, it really opens the door for Giddey to collect some potential assists. The Thunder are also using Giddey as the screener in the pick-and-roll for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. If the Pelicans blitz either of the Thunder guards, they can then find Giddey, and he can create for his teammates with one less defensive player in the picture. Giddey is projected to have 4.7 assists on Monday against the Pelicans. 

Despite being up 2-1, Vegas has been outplayed for most of the series; with just a shade over seven expected goals — including just 1.5 xGF in Game 3's OT loss. The Golden Knights have also seen their scoring drop each subsequent game of this series, and if you remove a three-goal barrage in the opening period of Game 1... Vegas has just five non-empty net goals in almost nine periods of play.

Robertson has registered three or more shots in five of his past seven games, and he paced the Stars with 231 shots and 477 attempts during the regular season. He's also continued the trend to rank second in shots (nine) and third in attempts (23) through the first three games of Round 1 and sports a rock-solid 59.0 CF% at 5-on-5. I also value that he's regularly traded at a 3.5-shot total over the past two years, and there isn't a crippling vig attached to this 2.5 number.

Hintz is mired in a seven-game point drought dating back to the regular season despite skating on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit. He’s an obvious candidate for statistical correction after finishing third in points per 60 (3.1) for the Stars over the past three years. Hintz also paced Dallas with 24 points across 19 postseason games last spring, and Vegas has an unsustainably high .955 team save percentage at 5-on-5 with him on the ice during Round 1.

While there have been performance and statistical peaks and valleys since Will Zalatoris returned from back surgery in December, his elite ball-striking and Top 10s at The Genesis, Arnold Palmer, and Masters stand out in this watered-down field. He ranks second in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches in this field across his past 30 rounds, and Zalatoris residing in the Dallas area is an added edge. Finally, backing Zalatoris for a Top 20 at +140 through DraftKings is also an advised complementary bet to an outright ticket.

Min Woo Lee hasn’t played competitively since finishing T22 at the Masters, and his distance will play well at TPC Craig Ranch. He’s third in true strokes gained off-the-tee and 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, so the emerging star should have plenty of birdie opportunities this week. Additionally, while impossible to quantify, Aussies have historically had success in Texas. Lee also has eight Top 25s across his past 13 events, including a T2 in the Cognizant Classic at the demanding PGA National. I also recommend backing Lee at +165 through DraftKings to finish Top 20.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had two hits in Sunday's finale vs. the Dodgers after recording a double on Saturday to give him back-to-back games with at least two total bases for the first time since April 19 & 20. It should be advantage Vlad when he faces Royals starter Jonathan Bowlan for the first time. Bowlan isn't overpowering and generally lives in the strike zone, meaning Vlad should make plenty of contact with his swings.

The Blue Jays bats have been struggling this season but the edge in starting pitching here is enough to back them on the F5 runline. The Jays hand the ball to Yuriel Rodriguez who has been solid thorugh three starts with a 3.86 ERA. Meanwhile, it will be a bullpen day for the Royals, which isn't a good thing considering the Kansas City relievers rank next-to-last in the majors when it comes to xFIP.

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are two franchises that have historically produced plenty of strong pitching, and tonight’s matchup is no exception to that rule. While both Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino have enjoyed solid careers, they've pitched especially well to start this season. Taillon has thrown 10 2/3 innings with the Cubs, allowing just two earned runs on 10 hits while striking out eight batters. New York will counter with Severino, who is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA over his first five starts in 2024.