The New York Islanders are regrouping after an epic third-period collapse against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 2, and Ilya Sorokin is taking over netminding duties to try and dig his team out of the 0-2 hole.
My Hurricanes vs. Islanders predictions focus on New York's offensive struggles rather than the defensive end, and that plays into my NHL picks for tonight's Game 3.
Hurricanes vs Islanders prediction
My best bet
Islanders team total Under 2.5 (-114 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The New York Islanders have actually been competitive in this series but have nothing but a 0-2 hole to show for it.
The Carolina Hurricanes have always been the best possession team in hockey, and in this series alone, Carolina has a 68% shot attempt differential, which correlates to New York’s playoff-worst 20 scoring chances/60 minutes. This is an offense getting no sustained O-zone time and even the loss of Carolina defenseman Brett Pesce isn't going to help.
New York had just 12 shots on goal in Game 2 and managed just a half-dozen of those at even strength. It also has one of the worstt power plays that ranked 27th over the last 30 days of the regular season.
The Islanders have a team total of 2.5, paying a very generous -114 for the Under at Pinnacle, which is the best price on the board. It’s a low-totaled game, and if this match is a sweat-free Under tonight, that Under price could drop heading into Game 4. Tonight's Under 2.5 at -114 might be the best price bettors see in the series.
Ilya Sorokin could struggle in his first start since the regular season, and if New York is playing from behind, getting high-danger scoring opportunities will be few and far between.
New York could still be competitive and hit this team total Under. I’m projecting a low-volume shooting game from both sides and would be amazed if the home team put up more than 25 shots tonight.
Hurricanes vs Islanders same-game parlay (SGP)
Islanders team total Under 2.5
Brock Nelson Under 0.5 points
Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 shots on goal
The Islanders team total and the Brock Nelson Under obviously correlate, but there is still a decent multiplier. If Carolina blanked the Islanders tonight, would it be a huge shock? Nelson plays on the second line and vs. a deep team like Carolina, even the last change won't help much to get a better matchup.
Svechnikov has the highest shooting rate of all Carolina skaters through two games, and his promotion to the top line should help him play close to 19 minutes a game, which would be about 90 to 120 seconds more than his usual role.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Hurricanes vs Islanders odds
Hurricanes vs Islanders live odds
Hurricanes vs Islanders opening odds
- Puck line: Carolina -1.5 (+176) | New York +1.5 (-202)
- Moneyline: Carolina -150 | New York +132
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-103) | Under 5.5 (-111)
Hurricanes vs Islanders moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Ilya Sorokin will start Game 3 after sitting out the first two games in Carolina. Over his last 10 starts, the former No. 1 goalie went 3-7 SU with a 3.02 GAA and a .903 SV%.
- Andrei Svechnikov has been moved up to the top line with Jake Guentzel and Sebastian Aho. He is still on PP2, but the move to the top line makes his Over 2.5 SOG at -130 or better a solid play. He leads all Carolina skaters in shot attempts/60 in the postseason.
- Winger Jesper Fast will miss his third game of the series, while defenseman Brett Pesce has been ruled out for the rest of the series. He was playing 19 minutes a game and will be replaced by Tony DeAngelo, which isn't a big blow to this elite defensive team.
- The Hurricanes have a huge special teams advantage in this series. Since the All-Star break, the Islanders rank 31st on the penalty kill and 28th on the power play. Carolina had the best PK in hockey over that stretch and the No. 9 power play.
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Hurricanes vs Islanders trend
The Hurricanes have hit the game total Under in 53 of their last 95 games (+10.00 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Islanders.
Hurricanes vs Islanders game info
| Location: | UBS Arena, Belmont Park, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSO, MSGSN |
Hurricanes vs Islanders latest injuries
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