Creighton vs Tennessee Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Sweet 16 Matchup

The No. 3 seeded Creighton Bluejays face the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16 tonight. The March Madness bracket has been chalky so far, but these teams were tested in the previous round with Creighton beating Oregon in overtime while Tennessee fought off a comeback attempt from Texas.

The Volunteers are a popular college basketball pick to win the national title boasting the sixth-best futures odds at +1,300 while the Bluejays are 10th at +2,500. March Madness odds have the Vols as 3-point favorites with the Over/Under at 143.5 for this Midwest region clash. Here are my best free March Madness picks and predictions for Creighton vs. Tennessee on March 29.

Creighton vs Tennessee best odds

Creighton vs Tennessee picks and predictions

The Creighton Bluejays are fresh off an 86-73 win against Oregon but were fortunate to cover as 3.5-point favorites since they went into double OT. 

One of their biggest issues in that contest was that they couldn't stop N'Faly Dante and Jermaine Couisnard even though they were Oregon's only scoring threats. Couisnard was coming off a career-high 40-point performance but Creighton was unable to game-plan against him and gave up 32 points to the Ducks shooting guard.  

That doesn't bode well for their chances of slowing down Tennessee Volunteers swingman Dalton Knecht. Knecht was named SEC Player of the Year and averaged 25.5 points per game on 48/42/73 shooting splits during conference play.

Knecht struggled to find his rhythm against Texas in the second round, going just 1-8 from deep and 4-10 from inside the arc. Despite that off-night, he still finished with 18 points and has scored 22+ points in 15 of his last 20 games. 

The Bluejays do an excellent job of defending the rim thanks to center Ryan Kalkbrenner, but they're vulnerable on the perimeter where they don't apply much pressure and sit outside the Top 200 at allowing high-quality three-pointers per ShotQualityBets. 

They force opponents into a ton of looks from midrange but are below average at defending those shots and Knecht thrives from that area. He ranks in the top 15th percentile of all players in midrange frequency while sitting in the top 10th percentile in midrange efficiency. Expect a bounce-back performance from Knecht and take the Over on his points.

My best bet: Dalton Knecht Over 20.5 points (-114 at Pinnacle)

Creighton vs Tennessee same-game parlay

 

Dalton Knecht Over 20.5 points

Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 16.5 points

Creighton Alt spread +5.5

+425 at bet365

Creighton didn't get Ryan Kalbrenner involved on offense enough against the Ducks and he still finished with 19 points on 7-10 shooting. Kalbrenner averages 17.4 ppg on 65.1 FG% and Jonas Aidoo can be attacked in the paint with bigger centers. That issue was exposed in Tennessee's non-conference slate when they lost games to Purdue, Kansas, and UNC and were unable to contain Zach Edey, Armando Bacot, and Hunter Dickinson.

Although I like Knecht to have a productive game that doesn't necessarily mean that Tennessee will cover. Keep in mind that he dropped 28+ points this season in losses to UNC, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Kentucky. 

In terms of analytics there isn't much separating these schools with the Vols rated slightly higher on defense and the Bluejays a bit better on offense. When you also factor in Creighton's experience and Tennessee coach Rick Barnes' history of underachieving in March, this should be a close contest. I'll buy a few points in this SGP and count on Creighton to keep this within two possessions.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Creighton vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

• This line opened with Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite and early money has shifted the spread to -3.
• The Over/Under opened at 143.5 and has remained unchanged as of Tuesday night.
• The Bluejays are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games while the Vols are 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS in their previous 14.
• With the third-best defense in the country per KenPom, the Under is 8-2 in Tennessee's last 10 games.

Creighton vs Tennessee betting trend to know

Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes is 4-16 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2009. Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Tennessee.

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