Best NBA Player Props Today: McCollum Makes Hay From Deep

Prop bet #1: Not maxed out

Joel Embiid’s return to action has understandably been the main storyline for the Philadelphia 76ers, but as a result, Tyrese Maxey’s recent play has somewhat gone under the radar.

Maxey had a career-best 52 points just one week ago and he’s averaging 28 points per game over his last five. These Tyrese Maxey odds are projecting a massive drop-off from his recent production, but I'm not buying it.

If Embiid plays, he will obviously soak up some of the usage that's gone to Maxey, but the difference in Maxey’s scoring in games with Embiid (25.6 points per game) to those without (26.4 ppg) is less than one point. While Embiid does take some of the shots that would otherwise go to Tyrese, the pressure he puts on opposing defenses makes the shots that Maxey does take much more efficient. 

The other reason this prop may be low is that it's projecting a blowout, but unlike some other games on the calendar Sunday, this is not a game between a team making a playoff push and another that is actively tanking.

The Brooklyn Nets are unique among the teams already eliminated from the playoffs in that they will not be actively trying to lose. As they don’t control their draft pick, losing this game does nothing for them in the lottery standings.

Indeed, interim head coach Kevin Ollie is treating this recent stretch as an audition for a permanent head coaching gig, and he’s had the team playing hard and to the buzzer on most nights even though they've been formally eliminated.

So Maxey should approach his usual minutes in this one, and he’s the exact kind of quick-twitch guard that the Nets struggle to defend. If Embiid leads the dance from the post, he should also hit Tyese on kickouts for plenty of opportunities from outside as well.

Tyrese Maxey prop: Over 22.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: 3J

There might not be a player on a hotter shooting streak heading into the final day of the regular season than New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum. He's a known sniper from the outside, but his play of late has been truly outrageous.

In his last two games alone, he's 17-25 from deep. Through seven games in April, CJ is taking 11 threes per game and hitting them at a 51.9% clip, or an average of 5.7 makes per game. These CJ McCollum odds seem low given that level of production.

In large part, this hot streak is because CJ is taking on a bigger role as Brandon Ingram continues to miss time due to his bone bruise, and CJ thus becomes the primary off-ball running mate for Zion Williamson. 

While Ingram is a better overall player than McCollum, CJ is a better offensive fit alongside Zion. Ingram and Zion both prefer to attack inside the arc, while CJ is all too happy to take the open outside shots that defenses concede as they try to deny Zion’s forays to the rim.

The Los Angeles Lakers are also one of the teams that allow a ton of opponent threes. With Anthony Davis manning the middle, they feel confident making the tradeoff of denying the paint and allowing a certain amount of open or lightly contested threes. 

They also don’t have strong defensive guard play and Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell are both limited when it comes to screen navigation. CJ should have ample opportunity to find the mark from outside at least four times.

CJ McCollum prop: Over 3.5 threes (-135 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Fade SGA

For my last prop play on Sunday, I’m looking at one of those completely non-competitive games I referred to earlier. The Dallas Mavericks are one of the only teams completely locked into their playoff positioning, as they prepare to face the Clippers for the third time in five years.

As a result, they're playing absolutely nobody on Sunday. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, and every Mavs player from their typical eight-man rotation with a pulse is officially out on Sunday. They'll be reaching deep into the bench to field a team against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder, meanwhile, are in a three-way tie at the top of the Western Conference. With a win and a couple of other games breaking their way, Oklahoma City could very well finish with the top seed. They will be motivated to put this game away early.

That’s why I am shorting these Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds. Shai is a dynamic 1-on-1 scorer, but he’s fundamentally an unselfish player. In recent blowout wins over the Bucks, Raptors, and Spurs, his minutes and scoring production were much lower than his season-long 30.3 points per game mark.

This game should get out of hand early and the Thunder’s role players and bench guys should get the vast majority of the playing time in the second half. As Shai is still nursing a quad injury, Mark Daigneault will be all too happy to use his best player sparingly as they lock up the win over this unrecognizable version of the Mavericks.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Under 26.5 points (-110 at bet365)