Best NBA Player Props Today: McConnell Makes His Mark in Game 1

Prop bet #1: Herro ball?

The Miami Heat are drawing dead against the Boston Celtics. While they’ve made many who made similar proclamations eat crow in the past, the Heat are going to struggle to find good shots without Jimmy Butler. 

As the team’s lone reliable shot creator with both Butler and Terry Rozier out of the lineup, a huge amount of the offensive burden will fall to Tyler Herro. I’m skeptical he can produce with the Celtics all honed in on stopping him.

The Celtics were the NBA’s third-best defense this season and it starts on the perimeter. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White both have strong cases for being members of the All-Defensive teams this season, and Jaylen Brown has quietly had the best defensive year of his career.

With so few offensive engines worth worrying about on this version of Miami, taking away Herro’s preferred shots will be first and last on the scouting report. Holiday and Brown can also beat Herro up on the other side of the ball to wear him down.

These Tyler Herro odds would be a bit rich even if this was slated to be a competitive game, as Herro's averaging just 21.8 points over his last 10 games, but with the spread approaching -14 or even larger, a blowout is beyond a possibility, it’s the expectation. 

I don’t think Herro will do enough in the competitive portion of this game to seriously threaten this number.

Tyler Herro prop: Under 23.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Harden's system malfunction

James Harden is a confounding player. An all-time NBA talent who in his prime was a scoring system unto himself, but whose otherworldly production has never translated to lasting playoff success.

He’s far from that prime now, and even in his heyday, he tended to come up short in moments when his team needed him most. With Kawhi Leonard limited or unavailable on Sunday, the Los Angeles Clippers will desperately need Harden to score in addition to his usual playmaking.

But they’ve also needed that from Harden for weeks now, and he has mostly failed to deliver. The Beard is averaging just 12.1 points over his last 10 games on below 50% true shooting. He’s failed to eclipse 20 points in 14 of his last 16 games. 

Harden has been dealing with a variety of nagging injuries, including a shoulder problem that's hurt the touch on his outside jumper. He’s shooting just 25.7% on long balls over his last five outings.

The main problem, however, is just his general athletic decline. Once a master of driving the paint and drawing fouls or scoring at the basket, his drives and shots in the restricted area are at career lows. He took just 19% of his shots at the rim this season, per Cleaning the Glass, a bottom-third mark among all guards.

These James Harden odds suggest he should be a near-even money bet to score 20+ points on Sunday against a locked-in playoff defense. I beg to differ.

James Harden prop: Under 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: T.J. the pest

Even at the highest levels of professional basketball, energy is a skill. And there's perhaps nobody in the NBA more practiced at using their relentless energy to impact a game than Indiana Pacers guard T.J. McConnell.

T.J. is a player that every coach loves because he always gives maximum effort, but limiting praise for his offensive game to effort would be seriously selling him short. He’s a highly effective and efficient player in his own right.

McConnell isn’t a volume outside shooter, but he’s shooting 40.9% from downtown. He’s also shooting 55.6% from the field and is scoring on 50% of his midrange shots and 69% of his looks around the basket. 

That level of efficiency should be impossible for a 6-foot-2 guard, but McConnell has become a master of picking his spots and dissecting opponent weaknesses.

T.J. has been asked by Indiana to do more this season than in any before. In turn, he’s sharpened his game and massively increased his usage. His 28.7% usage rate is by far the highest of his career. He truly is the engine of the offense when Tyrese Haliburton is out of the game.

He isn’t always strictly a backup to Haliburton either. In fact, the lineups when the two have played together are among the most potent two-way alignments the Pacers have.

Given the Milwaukee Bucks play a trio of small guards in Damian Lillard, Patrick Beverley, and Malik Beasley, I don’t see them using size to play T.J. off the court.

McConnell is averaging 14.9 points over his last 10 games and has had at least 12 in eight of those 10. I think these T.J. McConnell odds are underselling his scoring talent.

T.J. McConnell prop: Over 11.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)