Best NBA Player Props Today: Lowry Finds His Teammates

Prop bet #1: Spida's web

The Orlando Magic opted to guard Donovan Mitchell with Gary Harris instead of Jalen Suggs in Game 1. The goal is clear: Suggs contains Garland, and Orlando will use more of a team-defensive approach against Mitchell. This strategy is why I'm targeting Donovan Mitchell's odds regarding his assists line of 4.5, which is trading at -102 for the Over.

With Harris being the primary defender on Mitchell, it allows the Magic to have a really strong help defense on Mitchell no matter what the Cleveland Cavaliers run. In any screen or pick-and-roll that Mitchell is involved in, Orlando can show help with elite defenders who have positional size.

When you run a P&R and turn the corner and see Jonathan Isaac, it forces a pass or a potential assist, which is what we are after.

The Magic are also funneling Mitchell into their rim protection on the defensive end. This means Spida will be able to drive and get into the lane against Harris, but once he's there, Orlando is going to force him to make the correct read to one of his teammates. This, once again, should create more potential assists for us.

The bottom line is the Magic's defense has multiple defenders who can force a pass by Mitchell and are going to force the other players to beat them. With Over 4.5 paying -102 and Mitchell's projection of 5.4 assists allowing us to price the line at -149, we have to take it. 

Donovan Mitchell prop: Over 4.5 assists (-102 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: It's the Franz

Franz Wagner's three dimes in Game 1 against the Cavs don't give you a ton of confidence when it comes to hitting the button on his Game 2 line of Over 3.5, but wait until you see the potential assists.

Wagner had 13 potential assists against the Cavaliers in Game 1 — 13! That's a massive number for him, and it makes sense as to why this would happen.

Wagner is someone whose offense mainly comes in the paint, whether it's on a cut or euro-stepping through the lane and finishing at the rim with his size. The problem against Cleveland is the lane is clogged, and there is rim protection once he gets in there with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

Once Franz gets in the lane, he might not be able to get his shot off and will be looking for shooters on the perimeter. This should keep the potential assists high for him, and we just need shooters to knock down a shot to win this bet — something we didn't see in Game 1.

There were also a couple of actions we saw from the Magic where Wagner was the screener in the pick-and-roll, and he was able to catch the pocket pass and then find Paolo Banchero in the dunker's spot for an assist.

These actions caught my eye because we don't want to be completely dependent on jump shooting from his teammates for this bet to get Over the total. It'd be nice to also steal some assists at the rim on Wagner's drives, and I'm sure Jamahl Mosley is thinking the same thing.

Wagner is projected to drop 3.8 dimes, which isn't quite the four assists we need for a green checkmark, but it's the juice that has us betting on Franz Wagner's odds. Based on our projection, we can price the Magic forward at -111 to go Over the total of 3.5 assists, but it is available at +130.

Franz Wagner prop: Over 3.5 assists (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Veteran leadership

If you're into ladders, this is one bet you might want to examine closely because I believe there's an opportunity to cash in on Kyle Lowry's odds.

Lowry has gone Under his assists total in both playoff games — causing his total to drop from 3.5 to 2.5 at similar juice — which is a significant move considering the total is already so low. But let's take a look at Lowry's minutes.

He played 29 minutes against Miami and 39 minutes against the Knicks. Do I expect elevated minutes for Lowry on Monday in Game 2? Well, this is the interesting aspect of this bet: we don't necessarily need it to have an edge.

Lowry is projected to have 3.6 assists, but this projection is based on an estimated 24 minutes of play, so we're showing a healthy edge on the Over 2.5 assists (-112). However, that's assuming Lowry doesn't see increased minutes in any capacity, and after witnessing his 39-minute performance in Game 1, that assumption may not hold true.

The fact that Lowry played 39 minutes, still went Under the total in Game 1, and only had two assists is also driving the adjustment in the price we're seeing. This doesn't deter me in the slightest considering he had six potential assists, and if you're telling me I can possibly get 32+ minutes from Lowry at this number, I'm betting on it every time.

I'm sure there will be people out there saying Lowry won't play anywhere near the 39 minutes he played in Game 1, and that's totally fine. We don't need anywhere near that number to establish our edge, and that's why I'm hitting the button. With our projection of 3.6 assists for Lowry, we can price the Over 2.5 assists at -211, but it is available at -112.

Kyle Lowry prop: Over 2.5 assists (-112 at DraftKings)