Heat vs 76ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Known Commodity Prevails in Philly

If the postseason started today, the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers would be heading for a play-in showdown — and that just cranks up the pressure as the teams collide tonight at Wells Fargo Center.

The Heat enter this matchup on the heels of a pair of victories over the Pistons, but they made hard work of it. Without Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, Miami was rescued by a Bam Adebayo buzzer-beater in Detroit yesterday. 

With a matching 37-30 record, the 76ers only trail the Heat based on head-to-head record. Philadelphia is still waiting on Joel Embiid’s return but landed a much-needed win over the Hornets on Saturday behind 30 points from Tyrese Maxey.

These teams get the national TV spotlight here and I’m breaking down these high-stakes NBA odds in my free Heat vs 76ers NBA picks.

Heat vs 76ers odds

Heat vs 76ers predictions

No one does a better job of extracting the most from a patchwork rotation than Erik Spoelstra, and he’s proving that again lately with key players sidelined. Whether Butler is available or not, the Miami Heat are going to bring the fight.

Embiid’s absence looms large — but, in fairness, the Heat have enjoyed the upper hand in this matchup even when the reigning MVP has been on the floor. Miami has won both clashes this season and six of the last seven meetings, including the last four trips to Wells Fargo Center.

Despite those trends, the visitors are underdogs here on the second night of a back-to-back set, and I’m jumping on the plus-money odds for a team that’s capable of rising to the big moments.

It’s not just about Butler and Adebayo either. Duncan Robinson knocked down seven 3-pointers yesterday and the Heat are getting quality minutes from Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Terry Rozier, who’s had 16+ points in three of his last four. Of course, Butler becoming active would only raise my confidence.

The Heat have won more games on the road than at home this season, which speaks to their toughness and preparation. We could be in for a grimy, scrappy game here and that works in Miami's favor. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have injury concerns of their own, with Tobias Harris questionable and DeAnthony Melton ruled out, and their offense has been stuck in the mud over the last two weeks.

I see the Heat doing enough defensively to grind out a precious victory in the playoff race.

My best bet: Heat moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)

Heat vs 76ers same-game parlay

Heat moneyline

Bam Adebayo Over 11.5 rebounds

Tyrese Maxey Under 27.5 points

+442 at FanDuel

Even before his game-winning 3-pointer, Adebayo’s fingerprints were all over yesterday’s victory against the lowly Pistons. He finished with 20 points and 17 rebounds, keeping the Heat afloat on both ends of the floor.

I’m expecting more of the same tonight. All of the Bam props look enticing, but he should have the biggest edge on the boards, where he’s averaging 13 rpg over his last five contests. The 76ers are papering over Embiid’s absence with Mo Bamba and Paul Reed sharing the center minutes. 

Meanwhile, Maxey is doing his best to give the Philadelphia offense some juice, with back-to-back 30-point efforts, but I’m predicting a slight dip in scoring tonight against a well-drilled Miami defense.

The Heat held Maxey to 4-for-20 shooting in their Christmas Day showdown and he’s been kept under 25 points in five of his last 10 outings overall. The visitors have long, versatile defenders to throw at the 76ers’ star man.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis

Butler’s health hangs over tonight’s contest, with the 76ers pegged as favorites given the uncertainty, but there’s not much to get excited about in the hosts’ recent form — Philadelphia has lost five of its last seven games and hasn’t scored more than 109 points since March 3.

The Heat haven’t fared much better, with a 5-5 mark in their last 10 contests. That stretch includes three wins over Detroit and a loss to the Wizards.

Still, I’m trusting the visitors to show up in this primetime spot and improve their chances of avoiding the play-in.

This feels like a low-scoring slugfest and a line of 209.5 delivers that message loud and clear. The Under is 8-2 in Miami’s past 10 outings, and the visitors have been held below 110 points in each of their last six games.

Even when the offense is in a rut, the Miami defense shows up — and that’s a trend we’ve seen all year, with the Heat hitting the Under in 51 of their last 76 games.

That’s ominous for a Philadelphia offense that’s short on shot creators and will need a lot from Kyle Lowry and Buddy Hield if Harris is out again.

Heat vs 76ers betting trend to know

Look for the game to slow down in the fourth quarter, with Miami especially comfortable in a rockfight. The visitors have hit the fourth-quarter Under in 29 of their last 37 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. 76ers.

Heat vs 76ers game info

Heat vs 76ers latest injuries

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