The Tampa Bay Rays head to the Windy City for Game 1 of a three-game series with the struggling Chicago White Sox.
Tampa Bay righty Zach Eflin and the Rays are the MLB odds favorite to win on April 26 when they face right-hander Chris Flexen and the White Sox.
Can Flexen and the White Sox end their seven-game losing streak? Join me as I break this one down with my MLB picks and Rays vs White Sox predictions for tonight.
Rays vs White Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-120 at Caesars)
My analysis
Tampa Bay Rays righty Zach Eflin hasn’t allowed an earned run across his previous 12 ⅓ frames for the Rays and has a good matchup against the light-hitting Chicago White Sox.
His curveball and sinker have been getting high whiff rates on both pitches and the results have been outstanding: He’s struck out 11 batters without a walk and shut out the Yankees on three hits in his last start at New York.
Eflin will face an anemic White Sox offense. The Pale Hose have scored 20 runs across 370 plate appearances against righties, with a high strikeout (27%) and low walk rate (7.3%) alongside their MLB-worst .237 wOBA.
White Sox starter Chris Flexen has been off to a disappointing start to his 2024 campaign. He’s getting decent movement on his pitches, but his sinker is sitting. He’s served up four bombs already this season with a high walk rate and the lowest strikeouts per nine over his seven-year career.
Flexen might catch a break on Friday. The Rays have scored 14 runs in their past five games, and they strike out just enough (24%) with the second-lowest walk rate in baseball. The .279 wOBA also indicates that Flexen can pitch well enough to keep his team competitive.
Finally, Eflin has been spitting seeds and has a tasty matchup he can and will exploit; the White Sox strike out too much and chase far too many pitches to hurt Eflin. The Rays bats haven’t set the world on fire against righties, and they, too, whiff far too much and chase too many pitches, which aids Flexen. The weather will play a role; the respective starters have an edge over the opposing lumber, and this game ends Under the total.
Rays vs White Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5 runs
Zach Eflin Over 5.5 strikeouts
Rays moneyline
Our pitchers having a big night is why I chose the Under as my best bet and part of the reason is Eflin; he’s cleared his 5.5 strikeout just once this season, but the White Sox have struck out 100 times in 370 plate appearances at home against righties.
Eflin stymies the White Sox bats, and the Rays win this game. The Rays' lumber hasn’t been much better than Chicago’s, but they’ll notch a couple of runs off Flexen and coast to a closely-contested victory.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs White Sox odds
Rays vs White Sox live odds
Rays vs White Sox opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (-125) | Chicago +1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -220 | Chicago +180
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Rays vs White Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- 79% of the money is on the Rays to win this game, with Rays ML markets from -225 to -250.
- Total markets opening 7.0 were bet up to 8.0 (-105) while the best Under market reports 8.5 (-120) with Under 8.0 offering vig from -102 to -115.
- Tampa Bay has hit the moneyline in 20 of their last 30 away games.
Rays vs White Sox trend
The Under is 10-2-1 in White Sox’s last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. White Sox
Rays vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (1-2, 3.68 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Chris Flexen (0-3, 6.41 ERA) |
Rays vs White Sox latest injuries
Rays vs White Sox weather
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