The Tampa Bay Rays and Tyler Alexander flirted with perfection vs. the Blue Jays last night but settled for the 4-3 win in the series opener. Now the AL East rivals will face off in the afternoon at Rogers Center as Kevin Gausman sits as a -135 home favorite vs. Tampa’s Zach Eflin.
In my Rays vs. Jays predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 18, I look into why bettors should continue to fade this Toronto offense at plus-money today after it took the Jays' 23 batters to get its first baserunner yesterday.
Rays vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Jays team total Under 3.5 (+105 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays went into the eighth inning last night having sent 21 batters to the plate as lefty Tyler Alexander was perfect through seven innings before giving up a single in the eighth. I really thought that people would be losing their jobs on the Jays if they got perfect-gamed, as that’s how bad this offense has been this year.
On the season, their 155 runs scored is the second-lowest mark in the American League behind only the pathetic White Sox. In May alone, the Jays rank 26th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, and 29th in home runs with just nine over 12 games.
Their 3.6 runs per game are the second-worst mark in baseball and they’re one of five teams averaging under 0.85 home runs per game. This offense is broken, brutal, and hard to watch. The Under 3.5 team total at +105 is a strong play here, especially with an afternoon game which can dilute the lineup.
Because of Alexander’s great run yesterday, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has been reset, so all arms will be available for today’s underdogs. Zach Eflin is also a good name to back on this bet as he's a competent starter and can throw up donuts with one or fewer earned runs allowed in four of his nine starts. The biggest issue with Eflin is the long ball, which helps when that is Toronto’s biggest weakness.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may be hitting well of late, but there is still a long list of guys hitting under .200 this month, which includes Justin Turner (.083 AVG), Cavan Biggio (.133 AVG), Alejandro Kirk (.154 AVG). George Springer (.154 AVG), and Dalton Varsho (.163 AVG). There are too many cold bats in this lineup to string together hits.
There’s a chance the roof could be open this afternoon in Toronto, which also suppresses the home-run ball. The Jays have hit the Under in 22 of their last 34 games and have a +24% ROI on their team total Under across their last 42 games.
It’s been a profitable ride on this prop and the plus-money is making it an easy 'yes' on the Under again today.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Justin Turner Under 0.5 hits (+190 at PROLINE+)
It's been an ugly month for the veteran Justin Turner, who is hitting just .083 in May. He's been battling an illness of late and is hitless in his last five games, going 0-for-20 over that stretch. He's batting fifth in the lineup today and is hitting just .222 lifetime off of Eflin over 18 at-bats. Getting him at +190 to continue to struggle is one of the better +EV props in today's game.
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Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Rays vs Blue Jays live odds
Rays vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-180) | Toronto -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +115 | Toronto -135
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Rays vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Jays have stayed firm at -135 on the moneyline but there has been a little Over money coming in as the total has touched 8 in some places. The afternoon lineup and the roof being opened or closed will play a big factor in the closing number. If the roof is closed and both teams play their 'A' lineups, this could close at 8.
- Covers' prop projections have Kevin Gausman's strikeouts at 6.7, which makes his Over 5.5 at -155 a +EV play. Eflin projects for 4.3 Ks with a 4.5 total. Both pitchers project for just over 17 outs recorded.
- The Rays have taken six of the last 10 matchups with the Over going 8-2 over those 10 games. This is the sixth meeting this year and Tampa has won three of the five with the Over going 3-2.
- Both teams should have all arms available in the bullpen today as Alexander went deep yesterday for the Rays while Toronto had Thursday off. Toronto's bullpen ranks 28th in baseball with a 4.90 ERA on the season.
Rays vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, Sportsnet |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (3-4, 3.91 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (2-3, 4.95 ERA) |
Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rays vs Blue Jays weather
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