Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: W is For Webb and Win

Prop bet #1: Fedde Le Grand

It’s mostly pitcher Under props that show value in the projections, which shouldn’t surprise many, but the Twins strike out a ton and Chicago White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde’s Over 4.5 Ks looks great at -115 with Covers prop projections showing 5.41 punchouts.

Fedde has a great matchup on paper as the Twins boast a 26.1% strikeout rate. The matchup is usually priced in, but Fedde might be undervalued in general.

The 6-foot-4 right-hander has gotten at least 15 outs in four straight starts and should see a pitch count around 95. He’s keeping the hits down compared to 2022 (his most recent MLB season) and is punching out about a batter per frame. With a projection of nearly 16 outs, Fedde should get that one K per inning vs. this Minnesota lineup.

The Chicago starter went 5 2/3 scoreless in his last start and had 30 called strikes and whiffs on 94 pitches while striking out five. The two games he’s failed to go Over this number have come against two of the lowest K% teams in baseball in the Guardians and Royals. Some books are as low as -130 on this prop. 

Erick Fedde  prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Webb slinger

Even after finishing second in Cy Young voting last year, San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb continues to be undervalued. He’s allowed just three runs over his last 21 innings and has recorded 21 outs in three straight starts.

The ground-ball machine gets a home matchup vs. the New York Mets tonight and the projections expect just 2.00 earned runs over 19.4 outs. His Under 2.5 earned runs is priced around -150, which is showing +EV, but with the Giants sitting as -135 favorites and Webb expected to pitch deep into this game, picking him to record the win at +150 is the way to go.

Webb pitches very deep into games, which not all starters do, giving him an edge vs. similarly priced pitchers who don’t give their team as much time.

THE BAT has the Giants’ ML at -135 as the best +EV ML play of today's slate and projects it winning 68% of the time. Assuming Webb is getting into the seventh inning, that puts his +150 prop at a coin flip at worst. This prop has hit in back-to-back Webb starts and I’m not getting off the wagon tonight. 

Logan Webb  prop: to record win (+150 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Sir Wicks-a-Lot

Chicago Cubs lefty Jordan Wicks does not have a long leash — even when he pitches well. He lasted just 74 pitches in his last start but struck out five over 13 outs while giving up two runs on five hits. His WHIP has ballooned after a pair of bad command games but only one of his 21 hits allowed has left the yard.

He is also missing bats at a solid rate. His chase percentage ranks in the Top 15% of the league while his Whiff rate is in the Top 22% of baseball. With an earned run market at a lofty 3.5 paying -120 to the Under vs. a Houston lineup inflating the total, his Under looks great with a projection of 2.98.

There is some wind blowing out at Wrigley, which is certainly priced in, but there is also some rain in the forecast that could work in the Under’s favor. Wicks is one of the top prospects in Chicago's system and the Cubs are handling him with care. If there is any stoppage, he almost will certainly not go back out.

His ability to miss bats is also a factor that can negate some of the Wrigley wind. On the season, his 14.4% swinging strike rate ranks between Tarik Skubal and Pablo Lopez.

This is a giant number for a pitcher who will likely not see 80 pitches as the club limits the prospect’s workload.  

Jordan Wicks prop: Under 3.5 earned runs (-120 at bet365)