Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Estes Maintains Command in Seattle

Prop bet #1: Fade the Boo Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are a great team to fade because they can lose in so many ways. However, the most consistent has been betting against their consistently disappointing offense and the best market to profit off of that is with Minnesota Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson’s earned run market.

The 23-year-old right-hander has allowed just four earned runs over his four starts this year and although those came against the White Sox (twice), Tigers, and Mariners, the Jays are firmly in that company in terms of offensive production. Woods Richardson is paying +120 for his Under 2.5 earned runs, which is a great price for a prop he is perfect on the Under. 

SWR doesn’t have a long leash, having thrown more than 82 pitches just once this year. He’ll likely see the lineup just three times before giving way to a fresh bullpen that used only two relievers last night. A weak offensive opponent, a short leash, and a great plus-money price are all green lights here. 

The Jays could also throw out an afternoon lineup, which would dilute an already bad offense that has scored the second-fewest runs in the American League this season.

This market should close around +110 as the Jays have hit the team total Under in 40 of their last 67 home games, per Covers’ trends. 

Simeon Woods Richardson  prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (+120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: A Means to an end

Baltimore Orioles lefty John Means threw 85 pitches in his first start of the year last Saturday and despite the time off thanks to a setback with his surgically-repaired throwing elbow, he went 21 scoreless outs and allowed just three hits vs. the Reds.

Mimicking that performance is very unlikely today and this is still a pitcher who will not have a long leash and will be managed cautiously. Because of that, today is a great time to hit his Under 17.5 outs at +110 with his market inflated. 

Covers’ prop projections are sitting at 15.6 outs while THE BAT is projecting a pitch count in the mid-80s. That is not a lot of pitches to record 18 outs vs. an Arizona Diamondbacks offense that isn’t in the Top 10 in most offensive categories but does take the most pitches per plate appearance in baseball at 3.9 per PA. 

Running the pitch count up is the most important part of hitting this plus-money Under. The Orioles will also have every middle reliever available today thanks to a day off on Thursday and low pitch counts last night. 

Means' stellar season debut has inflated this market. With a mid-80s pitch count and facing a team that sees more pitches than anyone, he will need a lot of luck and early-count balls in play to get this Over. 

John Means  prop: Under 17.5 outs (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Tough to price Estes

The walk market is a tough one to live and die by but sometimes the plus money draws me in and that’s where I’m at today with Oakland A's starter Joey Estes, who is paying +140 for his Under 1.5 walks vs. the Seattle Mariners.

Estes was just recalled from Triple-A where he has a 1.46 WHIP and 10 walks over 28 innings. This is mostly where the pricing is coming from. However, he has made two starts for the Athletics this year and has not issued multiple free passes in either. In fact, over his last seven starts spanning both the minors and majors, he is 5-2 to the Under on the 1.5 walk prop. 

Another big angle for the Under is the workload. The fewer innings he pitches the better and THE BAT is projecting a pitch count of 82 and just 1.32 walks. That makes this a better than 50% win probability (based on the projection) for +140. It’s one of the highest +EV plays on the entire Saturday slate. 

Seattle is an average team in terms of BB% at below 9.0% and books always struggle to price players with little to no MLB experience. 

Joey Estes prop: Under 1.5 walks (+140 at bet365)