Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Padres Give Yamamoto Rude Welcoming

Prop bet #1: Hello Moto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto would have been the offseason jackpot for most MLB teams. For the Los Angeles Dodgers' it’s just the cherry on top.

Yamamoto comes to the big leagues as the next great Japanese phenom. The 25-year-old is coming off three consecutive seasons pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA while striking out more than a batter an inning and the Dodgers had to pay handsomely for his services. He received a 12-year $325 million contract to be precise.

However, while Yamamoto’s stuff is nasty and should play well in the big leagues, his transition to Major League Baseball might not be as easy as some predicted. 

The right-hander had a bit of a rough Spring Training. Yamamoto made three starts this spring, and he got knocked around. Yamamoto surrendered nine runs on a whopping 15 hits and four walks over 9 2/3 innings of work. That’s a WHIP of nearly 2.00, and he gets a reasonably tough matchup in his MLB debut.

Now, the San Diego Padres aren’t the Dodgers when it comes to their respective lineups, but they aren’t exactly the Oakland A’s either. Led by Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado, the Pads’ batting order is pretty solid 1-though-5.

The Padres were able to scrap together a few runs early in the opener against another tough right-hander with a big breaking ball in the Dodgers' Tyler Glasnow, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they did so once again in Game 2.

Yamamoto’s earned runs allowed prop is sitting at 2.5 for this matchup, which might feel a little high for an early season matchup but five innings of work feels like a reasonable expectation for the Japanese starter in this one. This should mean plenty of opportunities for the Padres to put up some runs. 

The +120 Yoshinobu Yamamoto odds put this bet over the top for me here. I think Yamamoto has all the tools to be an excellent major league starter, I just like him to give up a few runs initially.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (+120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: A walk in the Xand'

Xander Bogaerts is one of the reasons I like the San Diego Padres to score some runs in this one. 

The Padres veteran middle infielder is coming off a weird 2023 campaign. Bogaerts, like most of his teammates, got off to a slow start last season. While his eye was as good as ever, he wasn’t hitting the ball hard with much consistency. That is until the second half of the season.

Bogaerts looked much more like the guy from his last few seasons in Boston following last year’s All-Star break. The San Diego slugger hit .321 with an .875 OPS over the final few months of the baseball season and it looks like he’s carried that momentum over into 2024.

The four-time All-Star and five-time Silver Slugger winner opened his 2024 campaign with two knocks and an RBI in the opener against the Dodgers, and I like him to stay hot in this matchup.

As noted, Yoshinobu Yamamoto struggled this spring, but more than that, he is a hard-throwing right-hander with a beautiful, bending breaking ball. Does that sound like someone else on the Dodgers? Yes, yesterday’s starter, Tyler Glasnow.

So, the look will be similar for Bogaerts in this one, who was locked in yesterday with two line-drive singles and two deep flyball outs. 

In addition to that, Bogaerts' ability to see pitches is a huge edge in this matchup. He just has a great feeling for the strike zone and doesn’t’ chase bad pitches. That allows him to sit on breaking balls. Pitches he had a .311 batting average against last season. 

Despite the early-season struggles, Bogaerts still ended last year with 170 hits, with 52 of them going for extra bases. On top of that, new manager Mike Shildt is slotting Bogaerts at the top of his lineup card for the time being. Which at the very least means more at-bats in this one. 

With Xander Bogaerts' odds at +140, I like the value for Bogaerts to go Over 1.5 total bases in Game 2 of this series.

Xander Bogaerts prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Steady Freddie

I tailed my guy Josh Inglis with his Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs for yesterday’s opener and while the bet didn’t come through, the thinking is on point.

Freeman, who is coming off another fantastic season in which he hit .331 with a .976 OPS and drove in 102 runs, was raking in Spring Training and now gets to hit behind not only Mookie Betts, but Shohei Ohtani as well. He’s going to get so many opportunities to drive in runs this season.

Hell, he already did. Despite going 0-2 with two walks and a hit by pitch in the opener, Freeman came up to bat four times with runners on base. Twice with runners in scoring position. He came oh so close to cashing that RBI prop in the eighth inning, hitting a hard deep fly ball to the wall in right field that was unfortunately caught for an out.

So, I don’t expect a donut in Freeman’s RBI stat column much longer, particularly when you consider tonight’s matchup against San Diego Padres starter Joe Musgrove.

Musgrove is a solid pitcher, but like a lot of guys out there, the top of this Dodgers lineup has given him problems. None more so than Freeman.

Freeman is 13-29 with three doubles, a triple, and a home run in his career against Musgrove. That’s good for a .348 expected batting average and a .532 expected slugging percentage. Not to mention that Freeman crushed right-handed pitching all season long last year, getting to them for a .330 average and a .962 OPS.

It truly is an embarrassment of riches for the Dodgers with Dave Roberts being able to pencil in Freeman behind Betts and Ohtani. This means Freeman should get some pitches to hit and drive in some runs. More often than most, Freeman will cash in on those opportunities, and with Freddie Freeman's odds checking in at +140 I can’t say no.

Freddie Freeman prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+140 at bet365)