Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Just Not That Into Yu Against Dodgers

Prop bet #1: No thank Yu

Yu Darvish is set to face the best offense in baseball in a dome environment and his Over 2.5 earned runs is looking like a great buy at -110.

The right-hander didn’t finish the year in 2023 thanks to bone spurs in his elbow but he has gotten on track and finished four innings in his last spring start, which is key as getting five innings of Darvish for this prop goes a long way. 

THE BAT is projecting over 16 outs for the San Diego Padres pitcher, who will have to face a lineup that goes Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Outman, Jason Heyward, and Gavin Lux. The best projection in baseball is also expecting 3.01 earned runs for Darvish, who had just a single strikeout in his last start vs. Seattle across 16 batters.

Even if Darvish sees this order twice, the Los Angeles Dodgers can plate runs in a very hitter-friendly environment. It’s an indoor setting and if you know anything about the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), run production is encouraged. I doubt the league is using any humidors in this showcase game.

The Gocheok Sky Dome is 325 feet down the lines and 400 to center. The walls are also short with no real pitcher-friendly segments like some MLB ballparks. 

Darvish looks to have a decent leash and this L.A. offense is going to be exciting. The time change and 6 a.m. ET start are likely not great for pitchers’ unique routines.   

Yu Darvish prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Frozen-rope Freddy

The middle of this Dodgers lineup will have plenty of opportunities to plate runs when Betts, Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman are setting the table. That is giving value to a great prop that doesn’t get enough attention in player RBI totals.

It’s a market that sees little money, which makes it less efficient and better for bettors. The No. 3 to No. 6 L.A. batters all have great value but if I had to choose one when considering price and projections, it’s Freeman at +140.

He’s raking in the spring with a .949 OPS and 14 runs batted in across 13 games and just 32 at-bats. He has a .926 OPS vs. Darvish over 28 at-bats and is very familiar with him. He also hits left-handed, which is great because Darvish has a career OPS 70 points higher vs. left-handed hitters. The left-hand hitting Ohtani is also in front of him. 

Freeman might also see some great pitches hitting between Ohtani and Smith. I wouldn’t be surprised if Freeman goes first-pitch hunting in his first at-bat considering how much attention will be on the Ohtani vs. Darvish matchup.

Freeman has a great opportunity to plate some runs Wednesday morning and +140 is an excellent price considering some books are as low +123. 

Freddie Freeman prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Betting on pinch-hit risk

Here is a play that would make Derek Carty proud: Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 batter strikeouts at +200 at BetMGM.

It takes some digging to find these wagers, but lesser-bet props hold the best value. Merrill is projected to hit ninth in the order for the Padres and seeing four at-bats is unlikely. THE BAT is projecting 0.73 hitter Ks, which is the third-lowest projection for the game. Considering this a SS-turned-CF, he likely won’t finish the contest. This being a unique opener, San Diego manager Mike Schildt will want to get more players into the game. 

He’s never played in a Major League tilt, but the 20-year-old hitter might just see two PAs before ceding at-bats to someone else. Volume of at-bats is more important to this prop than K% but Merrill does have a low K% in the minors. I’ll take some lazy groundouts and a two-and-done day for great plus money. 

He might not start, but if that’s the case, this bet is void. DraftKings also has this market but they’re at +185. 

Jackson Merrill  prop: Under 0.5 hitter Ks (+200 at BetMGM)