Tonight’s loaded slate features 15 games with dozens of MLB player props betting opportunities.
I’ve scoured the MLB odds board and found three pitching prop bets that should provide terrific value for today’s MLB action. Check out my three favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, April 9.
MLB props for April 9
- Wheeler to win (+120 at Caesars)
- Glasnow Under 7.5 Ks (+120 at DraftKings)
- Gray Under 4.5 Ks (+105 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 4/9 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Prop bet #1: This Wheeler's on fire
Philadelphia Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has allowed just one earned run over a dozen innings yet has a 0-1 record this season.
The veteran righty has excellent command — Wheeler is striking out 11.70 with fewer than one free pass per nine frames and hasn't been taken deep. The problem is the Phillies have scored only four runs of support for their ace.
Tonight, he has an excellent opportunity to record his first victory this season against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup he has owned over his 10-year MLB career. This current lineup of Cards has slashed .204/.267/.215 over 93 career at-bats against the veteran right-hander and has scored three runs or fewer in four of their past five games.
Cardinals starter Sonny Gray had an injury-plagued spring with just 3 2/3 innings on the bump — he’s coming off a strong 2023, but he’ll likely be on some sort of pitch count while he’s shaking off the rust in his St. Louis debut.
The Phillies’ sticks have begun heating up and should be able to ride the momentum from their extra-innings victory against a pitcher coming back from an extended absence that delayed his regular season. That should give Wheeler all the runs he needs to register the win tonight.
Zack Wheeler prop: To record the win - Yes (+120 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Breaking Glas
Los Angeles Dodgers righty Tyler Glasnow is off to a fantastic start in his first season out West.
The former Tampa Bay Rays ace is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA. And while his record is spotless, one thing that’s been missing since joining the Dodgers is strikeouts.
For his career, Glasnow owns an 11.41 K/9 and 30.6% strikeout rate, but those numbers have dipped to 7.94 and 22.7% since joining the Dodgers. His walks are also up, and while he's registering victories, the veteran righty has failed to clear 7.5 strikeouts across his three starts and will have a tough time clearing this number tonight.
The Dodgers righty has a good history against this Minnesota Twins lineup. And while the Twinkies boast one of the highest team strikeout rates to open the season, they're also adept at drawing walks, which has been a problem for Glasnow so far. So even if the Twins are struggling to find their offensive stroke on the whole, Glasnow's erratic play to start his Dodgers tenure will play to their advantage.
Glasnow's reputation as a strikeout pitcher precedes him and is likely why his K prop is so high with the Under drawing plus money. As a result, it's a fantastic value play until he can effectively re-establish the punch out.
Tyler Glasnow prop: Under 7.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Gray matter
Editor's Note: Pick made before Josiah Gray was placed on the IL.
Washington Nationals righty Josiah Gray hasn’t had the best start to his 2024 campaign, and he is a large underdog tonight when he meets the San Francisco Giants.
Gray has scattered 15 hits and 13 earned runs through 8 1/3 frames, and his struggles should continue tonight. The 26-year-old has issued five walks and served up a pair of home runs already, and with the wind blowing out to center tonight, he may not pitch long enough to clear his 4.5 strikeout prop.
Finally, the Giants will be hungry for a win after getting embarrassed 8-1 last night. They’ve had some success against tonight’s starter, and this San Francisco lineup has only five strikeouts across 45 at-bats against a pitcher with command issues.
The Giants may have a relatively high strikeout rate against righties but it's still a fairly small sample size and they also boast an above-average walk rate. Gray serves up a 50% fly-ball rate with a 50% hard-hit rate, and with the wind blowing out combined with Gray’s control issues, he won’t clear 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
Josiah Gray prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at BetMGM)
Not intended for use in MA.
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