The Baltimore Orioles face off against the Kansas City Royals in MLB action on Saturday night. This should be a fun matchup between a couple of young franchises moving in the right direction. The O's are coming off a 101-win season, while the Royals currently have the third-best record in the AL at 13-7.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest today, with MLB odds installing the Orioles as -125 road favorites with the O/U at 7.5. Here are my best free Orioles vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks for April 20.
Orioles vs Royals prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 3.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
There is only half a game separating these clubs in the standings, with the Kansas City Royals boasting a 13-7 record and the Baltimore Orioles at 12-7. These teams have already faced each other four times this season and won two games apiece, with the Royals taking Game 1 of this series with a 9-4 victory last night.
The pitcher duel today between Corbin Burnes and Cole Ragans is a rematch from April 3 when the Orioles won 4-3 at Camden Yards. Only two runs were plated through the first six innings of that contest, and with how terrific both starters have been, I'm expecting another low-scoring start tonight.
Burnes is a three-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner who Baltimore traded for in the offseason. The hard-throwing righthander has pitched to a 2.28 ERA with an expected ERA of 2.64 in four starts with his new team. The 26-year-old Ragans doesn't have Burnes' resume, but he has also flashed dominance with his new club.
After the Royals traded for Ragans last year and moved him from the bullpen to the rotation, he pitched to a 2.64 ERA across 12 starts while averaging 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He's continued to throw at a high level this season, posting a 1.93 ERA with a 2.97 xERA through four starts. One of his best performances came in that previous contest in Baltimore when he allowed just one hit through 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball.
Both of these teams have excellent batting analytics but their raw stats have been less impressive. The Orioles are a modest 14th in the majors in OPS (.717) against southpaws like Ragans, while the Royals are batting .235 against righties.
Kauffman Stadium also tends to suppress home runs and while hits can still be sprayed to the large outfield, pitchers that don't allow much contact are less affected by that. Take the Under 3.5 on the first five innings.
Orioles vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
First five innings Under 3.5
Maikel Garcia Under 0.5 runs
Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ hits
Garcia put together a solid rookie season last year but he still finished with a modest .323 on-base percentage with 59 runs in 123 games. He plated a run in just 11 of his final 36 games last year, and he's been mired in a slump to begin this season.
Garcia is batting just .167 with a .212 OBP this season, and his expected batting average of .233 isn't much better. He also hasn't scored in his last six games, and he's just 1-for-25 at the dish during that span.
Sometimes a prop number simply looks mispriced and I can't look at the Under 0.5 runs for Maikel Garcia at -125 today without scratching my head. That makes it a no-brainer to add to this SGP, which is based around both teams struggling to score.
While Garcia has struggled at the plate, Bobby Witt Jr. has been Kansas City's best hitter. After having a breakout season last year, Witt is playing even better this year, batting .309 with that number bumping up to .357 at home. Witt also went 2-3 at the plate with a double against Burnes in that previous meeting.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Royals odds
Orioles vs Royals live odds
Orioles vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+135) | Kansas City +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -130 | Kansas City +110
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Orioles vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The ML slimmed from the O's at -130 to -125, while the total has ticked down from 8 to 7.5.
- When these same starters faced off in Baltimore on April 3, the O's won 4-3 as -167 home faves with the O/U pushing at 7.
- The Royals are 11-3 in their last 14 games, but five of those victories came against the last-place White Sox.
- KC is first in the majors in barrel rate and eighth in hard-hit rate, while Baltimore is third in barrel rate and second in hard-hit rate.
Orioles vs Royals trend
The Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Royals
Orioles vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Bally Kansas City |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (2-0, 2.28 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (0-1, 1.93 ERA) |
Orioles vs Royals latest injuries
Orioles vs Royals weather
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