Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Glasnow Stellar in Debut

The crack of the bat. The pop of a glove. Yes, baseball is back, and Opening Day is here! Well, kind of.

The first game of the 2024 MLB season will see the Los Angeles Dodgers take on the San Diego Padres at Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul, South Korea. Unless you're at the ballpark, a pot of coffee will be needed for this 6:05 a.m. ET start. 

Shohei Ohtani is set to make his Dodgers debut and is a big reason why they have the best World Series odds heading into the season and are heavy favorites in the MLB odds to get off to a winning start. 

Join me as I break down this game and offer my best free MLB picks for Dodgers vs. Padres on Wednesday, March 20. 

Dodgers vs Padres odds

Dodgers vs Padres predictions

It seems hard to imagine that the year-in, year-out expectations of the Los Angeles Dodgers could be much higher. 

When your offseason includes adding the oft-injured yet uber-talented Tyler Glasnow, Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and oh you know, maybe the greatest baseball player of all time Shohei Ohtani, that’s exactly what happens

The Dodgers enter the 2024 season with a stunningly high win total sitting at 103.5 and have the shortest World Series odds at +350. Despite not having Ohtani on the bump this season, anything short of a trip to the Fall Classic should feel like an underachievement.

So, the Dodgers open the 2024 campaign in South Korea against National West rivals, the San Diego Padres. 

The Padres would have been considered the biggest disappointment of 2023 if the New York Mets didn’t exist. San Diego finished the season 82-80 and missed the postseason. To make matters worse, they no longer have the services of perennial MVP contender Juan Soto (traded to the New York Yankees), reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell (signed with the San Francisco Giants), and closer Josh Hader (signed with the Houston Astros).

Now, they mitigated the loss of Snell by going out and making a big trade for right-hander Dylan Cease, but it’s the lineup that concerns me heading into this matchup.

Despite a lineup that featured Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts the Padres ranked 27th in batting average, 19th in OPS, and 14th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching last season. And when healthy, Glasnow can be one of the most unhittable pitchers in the majors.

Everyone knows Glasnow has incredible stuff and that his issue was staying on the field, but he is coming off a season where he made a career-high 21 starts. He pitched to a 3.55 expected ERA in those starts and ranked in the Top 3% in the league in strikeout rate.

Glasnow will also have the advantage that not many Padres players have faced him yet. With the exception of Bogaerts who is 2-12 with three strikeouts against him.

Meanwhile, the Padres counter Glasnow with Yu Darvish. The veteran right-hander is coming off an injury-shortened campaign that probably wasn’t as bad as the 4.55 ERA indicates, (His xERA was a respectable 3.82) but this Dodgers’ lineup is just so daunting.

Having to face three MVP-caliber players in Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman just feels unfair but it's not just that. It’s the addition of someone like Teoscar Hernandez to hit sixth and guys like Max Muncy and Will Smith still kicking around. Like I said, daunting.

Now, because it’s so early in the season and the Dodgers want Glasnow for the long haul I wouldn’t expect him to pitch too deep into this matchup. I believe the Under on a lot of his props will be the right side but five innings is certainly on the table.

I think the Dodgers win this matchup but the -205 price tag is not something I would recommend. It’s early-season baseball after all. So, instead, let’s take Glasnow to record a win in his first start with the Dodgers at solid plus money.

The Dodgers can get a lead to Glasnow early before he hands it off to the superior bullpen in this matchup and earn the first victory of the 2024 MLB season as the march to Over 103.5 wins begins.

My best bet: Tyler Glasnow to record the win (+140 at bet365)

Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay

Tyler Glasnow to record the win

Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs

Max Muncy Under 0.5 hits

30% boost available

+1,200 +1,560 at bet365

Freddie Freeman will contribute to that first win of the season. Freeman is coming off another fantastic season where he hit .331 with a .976 OPS, 29 home runs and 102 RBIs. This season he gets to hit behind Shohei Ohtani.

It’s crazy to think Freeman could get even more pitches to hit now. Freeman also has had the most success of the Dodgers hitters when it comes to facing Darvish, hitting .290 with two doubles and three homers in 31 at-bats vs. him. Add Over 0.5 Freeman RBIs to this same-game parlay.

However, not everyone in this Dodgers lineup has had the same success against Darvish. Infielder Max Muncy is coming off a year where he hit .212 and is just 7-31 with 12 strikeouts in his career vs. Darvish which includes an ugly .182 expected batting average. Close this SGP out with Muncy Under 0.5 hits. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dodgers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Dodgers opened this National League West matchup as hefty -185 “road” favorites for this game being played in Seoul, South Korea, but that expensive price tag hasn’t stopped eager MLB bettors from backing L.A. as the Dodgers are as high as -205 at some sportsbooks.

As noted above, I don’t like laying this sort of juice, particularly early in the season and while the Padres aren’t the Dodgers, they aren’t exactly the A’s either. Many teams would be happy to fill out a lineup card that featured Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts. 

Because of the Padres’ subtractions from the rosters and struggles against right-handers I do like the Dodgers here. So, get creative with ways to back them, like Glasnow to record a win at +140. I don’t hate the Dodgers on the runline either. That is around even money and the Dodgers are guaranteed all nine at-bats as the road team.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 8.5 and that’s where it sits as of Tuesday afternoon. Now, generally, I believe pitchers can ramp up quicker for a season than hitters can. They have their throw schedules and stick to them. 

Hitters need at-bats against major league quality pitching to find their rhythm and I believe hitters just don’t get enough of those matchups in Spring Training anymore. So, I tend to lean Under in matchups with solid starters early in the season.

For what it’s worth, these teams played Under this number in seven of last year’s 13 meetings.

Trend to know

The Dodgers went 9-4 vs. the Padres in 2023, outscoring them by 22 runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres

Dodgers vs Padres game info

Starting pitchers

Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Another player making his Dodgers debut, Glasnow has been among the leaders in strikeout rate over the last five seasons when he’s actually been on the mound. His 120 innings pitched last season was the most of any season in his career.

Yu Darvish (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Darvish isn’t the pitcher he once was but he was a little unlucky last season and still pitched to a sub-4.00 xERA before an elbow injury cut his 2023 short. But his velocity and stuff has looked good this spring and appears ready to get back on track this season.

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