The Texas Rangers begin the defense of their first-ever World Series championship when they welcome the up-and-coming Chicago Cubs to Globe Life Field on Thursday night.
Postseason hero Nathan Eovaldi gets the ball on Opening Day for the Rangers, while the Cubs counter with ace-in-the-making Justin Steele.
The MLB odds like the Rangers to start their title defense off on the right foot, listing them as slight home favorites. I break down this interleague matchup and bring you the best bet in my MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Rangers on March 28.
Make sure to also check our Cubs vs. Rangers prop bets ahead of first pitch!
Cubs vs Rangers odds
Cubs vs Rangers predictions
The Texas Rangers got some impressive pitching performances from guys like Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery en route to their first World Series title in team history.
But make no mistake, it's the Rangers lineup that powered them to this championship, and all the key figures are back, including All-Stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.
Today, I want to focus on Seager, who finished second in the American League MVP voting despite playing just 119 games. For what it’s worth, Seager is +1,000 in AL MVP odds this season, and I like him to start the 2024 campaign off with a bang.
Seager finished 2023 hitting .327 with a 1.013 OPS while smacking 33 dingers and driving in 96 runs. The superstar shortstop ranked in the 96th percentile or better in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and hard hit percentage. He also doesn’t strike out a ton, having finished 2023 in the 84th percentile in strikeout rate.
But what makes Seager really dangerous is that pitcher splits don’t bother him, as he is nearly as effective against left-handers as he is against righties. Against southpaws last season, Seager boasted a .314 batting average and an .882 OPS.
Tonight, he’ll face off against Chicago Cubs southpaw Justin Steele. While the Cubs lefty does a lot of things well, he pitches to a lot of contacts, and that resulted in him giving up an opponent xBA of .250.
That may not be a recipe for success against Seager, and while it may be a small sample size, Seager has two hits in just three career at-bats vs. Steele, including one for a double. At plus odds, Seager is a good value to go Over 1.5 total bases tonight.
My best bet: Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)
Cubs vs Rangers same-game parlay
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases
Justin Steele Under 5.5 strikeouts
Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 hits
Let’s give this Rangers lineup some more props, both literally and figuratively. Texas was a very patient team last season and was very good at limiting the strikeouts. In fact, the defending champs ranked 11th when it came to K-rate when facing left-handed pitching.
It’s not like Justin Steele was a big strikeout guy last season, striking out 176 batters in 173 1/3 innings pitched last season. That had him in the 58th percentile when it comes to strikeout rate. Mix in the fact it’s the first game of the season, and managers generally don’t push their starters too hard.
Meanwhile, Cody Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a pretty club-friendly deal following his comeback season, but I’m not sure 2024 will start out strong for the former NL MVP. Bellinger is just 1-5 with two strikeouts in his career vs. Eovaldi, good (or bad enough) for a .220 xBA.
Take Belli to go Under his hits in the Cubbies opener.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cubs vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers opened this interleague matchup as -120 home favorites and have since moved to -125.
- The Cubs and Rangers played one series last season back in April at Wrigley Field, in which Chicago prevailed in two of three.
- The total for this matchup hit the board at 8.5, and that's where it remains as of Thursday afternoon.
- The Rangers were a great Over bet in 2023, going 81-69-11, while the Cubs went 79-81-1.
Trend to know
The Cubs hit the game total Under in 21 of their last 32 games last season (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rangers
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Cubs vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Justin Steele (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Steele’s first full big league season was a resounding success as the left-hander finished the year fifth in NL Cy Young voting. Steele isn’t overpowering but he sure zaps power. He led the NL in HR allowed per game.
Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The veteran right-hander pitched to a 3.63 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP last season before leading the rotation in the postseason, something he's developed a knack for over the years.
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