At the risk of sounding like a gambling peasant....
I have never bought in to the Kelly Criterion for the great majority of gamblers. The fatal flaw to me is that you have to accurately calculate the probability of winning that wager. This alone is a skill that even the best of the best have trouble doing - even at a high level. But to assign an actual number to it - and then have your odds of overall success rely on this calculation almost as much as whether you win or lose in the first place usually spells doom to the great majority.
There is no debating the validity on a theoretical level, but in real practice - my opinion is that you are better off with something else for MM.
I know I will have heated opinions come at me - keep in mind this is my opinion about the practice not the theory.
At the risk of sounding like a gambling peasant....
I have never bought in to the Kelly Criterion for the great majority of gamblers. The fatal flaw to me is that you have to accurately calculate the probability of winning that wager. This alone is a skill that even the best of the best have trouble doing - even at a high level. But to assign an actual number to it - and then have your odds of overall success rely on this calculation almost as much as whether you win or lose in the first place usually spells doom to the great majority.
There is no debating the validity on a theoretical level, but in real practice - my opinion is that you are better off with something else for MM.
I know I will have heated opinions come at me - keep in mind this is my opinion about the practice not the theory.
At the risk of sounding like a gambling peasant....
I have never bought in to the Kelly Criterion for the great majority of gamblers. The fatal flaw to me is that you have to accurately calculate the probability of winning that wager. This alone is a skill that even the best of the best have trouble doing - even at a high level. But to assign an actual number to it - and then have your odds of overall success rely on this calculation almost as much as whether you win or lose in the first place usually spells doom to the great majority.
There is no debating the validity on a theoretical level, but in real practice - my opinion is that you are better off with something else for MM.
I know I will have heated opinions come at me - keep in mind this is my opinion about the practice not the theory.
Also meant to add....
The stakes a true Kelly will suggest are WAY too high for a typical gambler - and that is exponentially affected when you are unable to assign a win percentage that is fairly accurate.
Maybe a 1/4 Kelly staking size or even less would be much more appropriate.
At the risk of sounding like a gambling peasant....
I have never bought in to the Kelly Criterion for the great majority of gamblers. The fatal flaw to me is that you have to accurately calculate the probability of winning that wager. This alone is a skill that even the best of the best have trouble doing - even at a high level. But to assign an actual number to it - and then have your odds of overall success rely on this calculation almost as much as whether you win or lose in the first place usually spells doom to the great majority.
There is no debating the validity on a theoretical level, but in real practice - my opinion is that you are better off with something else for MM.
I know I will have heated opinions come at me - keep in mind this is my opinion about the practice not the theory.
Also meant to add....
The stakes a true Kelly will suggest are WAY too high for a typical gambler - and that is exponentially affected when you are unable to assign a win percentage that is fairly accurate.
Maybe a 1/4 Kelly staking size or even less would be much more appropriate.
Nice to see he treats his enemies the same way as his friends when it comes to offering him capping advice.
Nice to see he treats his enemies the same way as his friends when it comes to offering him capping advice.
Once you are parlaying the last morsels of your bankroll, you are finished.
Where is the bomb play? The guy has to go all in if he only has 4K left.
Once you are parlaying the last morsels of your bankroll, you are finished.
Where is the bomb play? The guy has to go all in if he only has 4K left.
Oh my God, I can’t believe this thread is still alive! Better yet, I can’t believe CG is still alive.
I haven’t checked-in since shortly after his
account “allegedly” got hacked by a racist maniac. I thought he would have definitely
got into the 401K or moved back to Jersey by now.
I am really having a hard time believing he’s still working on the original roll. If this is true, I would say CG has - at the very least, provided himself with a long vacation.
Oh my God, I can’t believe this thread is still alive! Better yet, I can’t believe CG is still alive.
I haven’t checked-in since shortly after his
account “allegedly” got hacked by a racist maniac. I thought he would have definitely
got into the 401K or moved back to Jersey by now.
I am really having a hard time believing he’s still working on the original roll. If this is true, I would say CG has - at the very least, provided himself with a long vacation.
Van - thanks for the comments on the Kelly Criterion. I've read it - understand the theory/concept - I think the issue is one's own belief in the probability of success for an upcoming event as you pointed out. If you have had success and truly believe you have an edge - bet it up. No edge don't bet. The problem is - as you stated what is the true probability of the upcoming event vice what your mind is telling you. If you believe in your data and can truly come up with something quantifiable and your able to answer the question - Based on ____(whatever one believes)_____ results in _____(Team A winning)______ 95% of the time - then I'm taking Team A for a chunk of my bankroll. Until you come up with what you believe are the key drivers in a game and then collect, organize and base your decisions on previous results so you can answer the question above - you probably are not going to be able to have success with the Kelly Criterion - just my thoughts.
Goose - thanks for being a liason between CG and this thread. Regarding your Boston Redsox advice - I've found many of us bet on sports because we have big egos and believe in our methods- at the end of the day many think - if i'm going down it's on my terms - thus it's hard for someone to take advice or even consider someone elses thoughts - anyways - I do hope CG figures it out.
Good luck all.
Van - thanks for the comments on the Kelly Criterion. I've read it - understand the theory/concept - I think the issue is one's own belief in the probability of success for an upcoming event as you pointed out. If you have had success and truly believe you have an edge - bet it up. No edge don't bet. The problem is - as you stated what is the true probability of the upcoming event vice what your mind is telling you. If you believe in your data and can truly come up with something quantifiable and your able to answer the question - Based on ____(whatever one believes)_____ results in _____(Team A winning)______ 95% of the time - then I'm taking Team A for a chunk of my bankroll. Until you come up with what you believe are the key drivers in a game and then collect, organize and base your decisions on previous results so you can answer the question above - you probably are not going to be able to have success with the Kelly Criterion - just my thoughts.
Goose - thanks for being a liason between CG and this thread. Regarding your Boston Redsox advice - I've found many of us bet on sports because we have big egos and believe in our methods- at the end of the day many think - if i'm going down it's on my terms - thus it's hard for someone to take advice or even consider someone elses thoughts - anyways - I do hope CG figures it out.
Good luck all.
You must have seen CGs videos.
But that's not a Groucho mask, that is his real nose and glasses.
You must have seen CGs videos.
But that's not a Groucho mask, that is his real nose and glasses.
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