ATP Shanghai Preview
Novak Djokovic returns to the court as the defending champion in Shanghai. The Serb has won the title at the Shanghai Masters three of the last four years. The top seed is 24-3 all-time at this event. Rounding out the top four seeds are newly crowned China Open champion Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal. Murray has won the title in Shanghai twice in 2010 and 2011. Nadal has only made it as far as the final and that lone trip was back in 2009. Wawrinka has never advanced past the quarterfinals with two trips in 2013 and 2015. The top eight seeds this week also include Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, Tomas Berdych and Marin Cilic.
The top three seeds have controlled the title in Shanghai over the past five stops in China. Just once in the last five years has an unseeded player crashed the final. That came in 2014 when Gilles Simon made it and lost to Roger Federer. Unseeded players have made the semifinals intermittently with two making that round in 2014 and two making it in 2011. Otherwise, seeds have been the norm at the business end of the tournament. Seeds have also been fairly good at avoiding early trouble in Shanghai. Outside of 2014 when a whopping seven seeds lost their opening matches, four or fewer seeds have dropped their openers over the past five seasons. On average, that number has been just two in three of those five years.
With those stats to chew on, let’s take a look at the Seed Report for Shanghai.
Seed Report
1. Novak Djokovic
There are big concerns surrounding Djokovic this week. On top of the alleged elbow issue that left him out of the China Open last week, the Serb has admitted recently that he has lost his passion for the game. That doesn’t sound much like a player you’d look to as a probable winner this week. Djokovic is 24-3 at this tournament and has the added incentive to win this week. A title in Shanghai would assure him of holding off Andy Murray for the year-end #1 ranking. At a time of year when motivation is needed, that could serve Djokovic well. The top seed opens against Fabio Fognini who beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas in early round once action. Djokovic is 8-1 against the Italian in his career.
2. Andy Murray
Murray heads to Shanghai with solid momentum after a great week and win in Beijing on Sunday. Murray’s fifth singles title of the year keeps him within long shot distance of overtaking Djokovic for the year-end top ranking as well. The Scot won’t be too consumed by that, but he should feel good about this chances with Djokovic’s desire still a question mark. Murray is 17-3 in Shanghai during his career and meets either Steve Johnson or Martin Klizan to begin his campaign. Johnson will give everyone a chance to relive their Rio Olympics clash, but Johnson has not been the same player since that point either. Murray should get through his opener reasonably well.