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replied to
New for 2010 - College Totals posted on theRX this season - 65% Last 4 Years!
in Website Promotions
Delete this thread - wrong title...
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puffdawg | 3 |
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created a topic
New for 2010 - College Totals posted on theRX this season - 65% Last 4 Years!
in Website Promotions
With the College season starting next week, I wanted to put something on the radar for you.
You may recognize me most for my NFL computer program, whose totals have hit 67% for 4 years now. The worst year I’ve had with my NFL totals was 60%. Well, this offseason I modeled a College totals program based on my NFL totals. I then backtested the results for the last 4 years: 2006-09. The results were phenomenal:
If you are interested in reading detailed results for the computer program, including week by week results from 2006-2009, go here: https://tiny.cc/41zwl You may or may not be aware of a popular CFB handicapper who is selling 8 weeks of plays (2 months) for $750! His claim to fame is hitting 59% for 3 years. My plays have hit 65% for 4 years and I am posting them all on this forum for free! While I don’t directly control the plays selected (my computer generates them) I would like nothing more than to compete with and beat a company who is charging almost $100 per week and hitting 59%. We’ll see how the season plays out, but you’ll get all the plays the computer makes, posted right here. Look back around Week 5 to see the first plays posted. Good luck until then! |
puffdawg | 3 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions
Week 2 Results: 12-8 (60%)
Week 2 Totals: 6-3 (67%) Overall Results: 24-15 (62%) Totals Only: 12-3 (80%) |
puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions
The plays are all found in the article linked on page 1, the first post.
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puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions
Week 1: 13-7 (65%) Overall, Totals 7-0 (100%)
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puffdawg | 39 |
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That's what the Preseason Trend Report which I posted in this thread:
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100798264 Did in Week 1. I'll bump the thread for all to read. The winning plays were: NYJ Over Bal Under Pit Under Houston Over Fade Indy Jac Over Fade KC Oak NYG Over Fade Phi Phi Over (overlapped w/ Jac Over) Was Chi Over Det Under (overlapped w Pit Under) GB Over Here were the losers: NE Buf Air Sea StL And the plays offset in TB/Mia. All predictions combined, they went 16-8 (67%) but removing the overlap and the offset, it was 13-7 (65%). Totals went 7-0 (100%) and 8-0 if you include the overlapping game (Phi/Jac) I strongly recommend using this as a tool. It's not the end-all, be-all, but it is definitely something to consider as a lot of research went into the article. You have to read it and see what it suggests for plays in Week 2, but several of the sides and totals will be the same as Week 1. Here's the LINK to the report itself. |
puffdawg | 4 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox: puffdawg, my point with the "conicidence" comment was that you ARE sharpfootballanalysis.com and you should be posting in the touts section of this forum.... And, to answer your question about hiding records, all I'll say is that you are a little shady with the way you choose to emphasize whatever is doing the best between your "computer plays", your "personal plays", your "totals system plays", etc. I am posting an article on here written by someone not associated with me and never once mentioned anything about me until you brought it up. By not answering the question, you are obviously admitting that I never did anything shady with the recordkeeping. Your comment is pretty unsubstantial in the grand scheme - you say that I admitted when one type of play had a bad week but bolded when the other type won. Pretty petty if you ask me. But, I am unlike other guys and I personally have taken client feedback very much to heart and am bringing what I think is a much better product to the table this year. Plays guaranteed to hit 58% or your money back? Who else would do that? Guaranteed plays for $8.99? Who else sells guaranteed plays for so cheap? The bottom line is that I'm willing to put it out there that if the plays suck, you won't pay for them. But I'm still charging right around $2 per play if you buy a long term package. I am improving what I am offering, and I am so confident that I will have a great year that I am offering those types of guarantees. If you've seen my work the last few years, I think you'd be able to say that when you are talking about win rates, information, and affordable plays, there is no one out there with a package as much "bang for the buck" as what I offer. |
puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox: typical covers' one-and-done wanna-be tout. 1. I tally up and count every loss as a loss. Answer me this - did I ever ignore a loss to hide my record when I had a bad week? The record is legit and speaks for itself. Whereas many touts will follow a losing week with a 50 Dime play to chase and hide the losses, I don't. If I go 1-3 one week and 3-1 the next, I'm right at 50% and that is all I show. I don't make up units to continue to chase and hope by the end of the season, despite hitting 40-45%, I am up 95 units. That type of nonsense goes on all the time but you won't see it from me. 2. If my 56% from the program last season and 54% overall was so absolutely terrible, please tell me what are the single worst season you've seen from other services? I guarantee that their worst season is far worse than 54%. 3. Though I have nothing to prove to you, it still will be very rewarding to prove once again how my computer system is unmatched and produce a season in the 60% range. 4. I love hearing the "its not possible to hit 65% for 4 years" and the "one-and-done" comments (though I hear the former far more than the latter, since I've been sharing plays for 4 years and only last year did I have a subpar 54% year) but it will be nice to see what happens this season and if I have a losing season, you can feel free to call me out on it. And if I have a winning season, I'll definitely be sure to remind you of it. |
puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox: and... taken from sharpfootballanalysis.com, we have the following quote: "Thus I spent a considerable amount of time in the late winter and early spring months of 2010 developing a college football computer system to predict totals. I chose to focus on totals only because, should we have NFL in 2011, I didn't want handicapping college teams in terms of ATS predictions to interfere with my work in the NFL. Running my computer program on a weekly basis is straightforward and I can accomplish it, if totals-only, without diverting myself for too long from the NFL. This was paramount to me and the reason I built a totals-only system. " coincidence? perhaps... likely? no.... What do you mean by this? Coincidence? What are you referring to? |
puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by glyde69: Good to see you, Puff! Wendy, I've been following Puff for a good three or four years, and his computer totals system is top notch. Hands down the best I have ever seen, and I've seen them all. Puffdawg, I hope to see you around this year on the forum! Glyde - thanks for the kind words. It is always nice to talk with you and hopefully we can do more on covers this year than last year. Wanted to toss out 3 things about that NE/NO game tonight that are of interest, especially if you consider a potentially lower scoring game and the game under: 1. Teams have been practicing w/ each other for several days now. Getting accustomed to going against one another's unit. 2. With the umpire spotting the ball and then moving back through the offense to his position behind the QB, this could slow down the games more this season. Only 1 game to judge by but Vegas surely has not fully adjusted for this if it does become somewhat significant in terms of fewer plays per game. 3. NE's QB rotation is not very strong. Truth be told, it might be one of the worst in the league after their starter, especially considering actual game experience. Saints are not far behind, and most of all, their #1 backup (Chase Daniel) was w/ the Skins last year. |
puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox: whatever you do , DO NOT PAY FOR SHARP FOOTBALL ANALYSIS' PICKS!. The guy had like 1 good year on another forum, and used that as a means to go tout. Since then, he has sucked. And, in typical tout fashion, he always finds the angles to make himself sound like a winning capper (example: "In week 9, during a tornado, with a spread of 20 or more, I am an amazing 5-0!!!") when in reality he's about a 53% capper. First, this was not about Sharp, it was about the preseason trend report. But if you want to discuss Sharp: Not sure where you get "1 good year": 1. In 2007 all computer plays were were posted online and hit 66%. In 2008 all personal plays thru week 9 were posted online and hit 72%. 2. 2009 the computer hit 56% and all plays together hit 54%. Not too stellar. But when you have 4 terrible weeks, that's what you get. 3. Because all plays hit 54% for 1 year that makes Sharp a "53% capper" for life? 4. Clever way to ignore the fact that for 4 straight years, the computer program hit 65% across over 425+ plays, something I've personally never seen another program do anywhere, EVER! 5. Also for 3 straight years the total of all personal plays are at 59%. 6. All of that includes the fact that last year hit 54% and lowered percentages. If you can't grasp that every capper won't hit 67% every single year, you haven't bee in this business very long. If a 54% year is the worst year on record that a service has ever had, I'd say they are damn good. Over half the services out there don't beat 54% on their best year. And that was Sharp's worst. You get off though if you can name one other program that any other service uses that legitimately has hit 65% for 4 straight years... |
puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions
Thanks guys - not my work but I'm pleased to share it - give it the occasional bump to the top because I think it has some really good info here.
Europa - I've got a new college football totals system and will be posting those totals here each week, but it does not start until week 5. Other than that, I'll try to share some NFL info and/or a play from time to time. Take care. |
puffdawg | 39 |
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created a topic
Preseason Trend Report - a great read for anyone betting the preseason
in Website Promotions
This is Tony Stoffo's report. One of the better preseason reports out
there - it breaks down each team and gives QB rotations and trends. I
noticed at least one QB rotation is off but they look good for the most
part. Here it is organized by team with quick links, so you can jump
around team by team. I'm not sure how his trends fared last year but it
is well worth a quick read.
Here's the LINK. |
puffdawg | 39 |
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replied to
Super Bowl: 10+ Wagers (Side/Total/Teaser/Props) for less than $20 - 89% Playoffs Wagerline Champion
in Website Promotions
Went 7-3 (70%) on the day, winning big on Pit ML, Ari+14/Under 53.5 teaser, +285 Russell to score a TD and +100 H.Miller over 3.5 catches, in addition to 3 other Prop bet wins.
I am now out until next NFL season, as that is the sport I dominate. 120 plays released this year during the regular season (sides and totals) and went exactly 80-40 (67%). That's an average of 7 plays per week and a 67% win percentage. Not one other NFL service can claim that record. None! In the playoffs, I had solid winning weekends on 3 of the 4 weekends, with 2 of the weekends hitting 70% or better on 4 or more plays each weekend. I had only 1 weekend that was .500 or below. A terrific season and one that my clients will remember, but only until next year, because these results are nothing new for me and my system. I've been well over 60% for years now: https://sharpfootballanalysis.com/records.html |
puffdawg | 3 |
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replied to
Super Bowl: 10+ Wagers (Side/Total/Teaser/Props) for less than $20 - 89% Playoffs Wagerline Champion
in Website Promotions
Additional Plays have been added! Less than $20!
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puffdawg | 3 |
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created a topic
Super Bowl: 10+ Wagers (Side/Total/Teaser/Props) for less than $20 - 89% Playoffs Wagerline Champion
in Website Promotions I won the Wagerline NFL
Playoff Championship 3 years ago, hitting 89% of my NFL plays (16-2). No Wagerline champion (any sport, any year) has had a winning percentage as high as mine.
I will be adding a side, a
teaser, and additional props. There will be 10 or more total plays, all for less
than $20!! https://sharpfootballanalysis.com/Purchase_Playoff_Packages.html |
puffdawg | 3 |
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replied to
32-8 (80%) L3 Yrs NFL Playoffs Documented Wagerline Champ - Div Round Winners Here
in Website Promotions
Two Personal Plays are Posted NOW!!!
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puffdawg | 2 |
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created a topic
32-8 (80%) L3 Yrs NFL Playoffs Documented Wagerline Champ - Div Round Winners Here
in Website Promotions
I went 2-0 (100%) on my Wild Card Personal Plays last week and 3-1 (75%) in all plays last week.
I am now 5-0 (100%) in my last 5 Personal Plays. Looking back from 2005-2007, in the Postseason, I compiled a 32-8 (80%) record for those 3 years in the Playoffs, all of which is fully documented online at a combination of Wagerline (16-2, 89% documented there) and other messageboards. I am back for a Divisional Round which I already have studied and broken down and feel optimistic about several plays. No one in the industry delivers a better and more detailed write-up and analysis to accompany their plays than I do. My Divisional write-ups that I am preparing are going to provide even more analysis and detail into how I "handicap" games than these Wild Card write-ups, but to view my write-ups for my Wild Card Personal Plays (Ari+1 & Bal-3) go here: https://sharpfootballanalysis.com/Wild_Card_Writeups.html Here is the link to purchase my Divisional Plays: https://sharpfootballanalysis.com/Purchase_Playoff_Packages.html |
puffdawg | 2 |
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replied to
32-8 (80%) Last 3 NFL Playoffs inc 16-2 as Wagerline Champion (Link)- WILDCARD INSIDE!
in Website Promotions
2-0 (100%) Personal Plays Wild Card Round and
3-1 (75%) All Recommended Plays Wild Card Round 3 Wins covered by an avg of 11 pts each and 1 Loss by just 1 point (missed extra point) Ari+1 (Pers Play, W 30-24) ... Bal-3 (Pers Play, W 27-9) ... SD/Ind Under 51 (W Tot 40) ... Bal/Mia Over 37 (L Tot 36) Click to Purchase Plays for Divisional Round Now! |
puffdawg | 4 |
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replied to
32-8 (80%) Last 3 NFL Playoffs inc 16-2 as Wagerline Champion (Link)- WILDCARD INSIDE!
in Website Promotions
My "Strong Lean" on the Under 51 for SD/Ind was an easy winner tonight.
So Wildcard Saturday ends w/ a 2-0 record and I produced winners on both games. |
puffdawg | 4 |
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