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Anyone else take a look at this game? All opinions welcome. Northwestern is just straight up bad. Last year they probably averaged less than 10 points a game, and only won against Rutgers. This year seems like things are continuing. They played at Rutgers last week and lost 24-7. A breakdown of the stats from that game include: 13 first downs, 22 rushes for 12 yds, 189 passing yards. I believe if you take a look at the play by play, Northwestern being down 24-0, they controlled the ball for the last 6 minutes or so and scored their only touchdown. In that last 6 minutes or so, they had 53 passing yards, 18 rushing yards, and around 7 first downs. That means, for the whole game, other than the last 6 minutes, they had only 6 first downs, negative rushing yards, and around 130 or so passing yards... On the other hand we have UTEP.... they should be able to control the game with their rushing offense and they typically dominate the time of possession. Their defense seems to be pretty decent, but they do seem like at times they do not want to win. their penalties are horrible as well. that being said, utep has the better offense and defense. i see a 24-10 or 24-14 type of game at worst. |
peanut_smuggler | 1 |
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Fat. Its a shame to be losing yet another great capper as yourself. Wish you all the best in the future. Friend Request sent. Hope to talk and see you posting again in the future. |
fat italian | 3356 |
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did i miss something? 2nd and 5 after 2 minute warning on the 36 yd line. sea with 2 timeouts left…. why all of a sudden decide to throw the ball? |
peanut_smuggler | 1 |
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havent posted much over the years but it is good to see a quality contributer like yourself still around. |
Redlad | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by peter10:
You haven't watched Akron , BG may not be the same team as last year but neither is Ball state or Ohio and they beat Akron easy peter- different quarterback the last two games. woodson threw 6 interceptions in the last two games. I believe Pohl should be back for this game. |
Al_Capone | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by haukiann:
If i lost 5,000 bet on Arkon tonight i will looking for you and pound on your face man.
no one is forcing you to make any bets dude. think for yourself and take responsibility for you own actions. win or lose, its not his fault. |
talesfromdcrypt | 30 |
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close to what I think as far as score. don't disagree with much of what else you said either. GL |
Al_Capone | 10 |
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wow this line is moving crazy against me... oh well. hopefully if I wait I can get 3. it's 3.5 right now for me and if in a little while it doesn't move ill just buy the half point and slam it. Goodluck all. |
peanut_smuggler | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by culinguru:
Not so fast! Waiting to hear about the QB? If he doesn't go--- No way are they the play sorry to hi jack your thread... according to an article from the 22nd, the starting QB Pohl was ready to go last week against ball state but didn't play. I do not know why they wouldn't play him this week if he's healthy and been eager to play for over a week. |
talesfromdcrypt | 30 |
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where's cooler? my good luck charm
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peanut_smuggler | 12 |
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talesfromdcrypt | 30 |
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ok here is what I found. kyle pohl (7 td, 3 int. 56.5% comp %) had a concussion against M-OH during the first half of the game and was later held out against OHIO (for safety) and then held out against ball state even though he was healthy and ready to play. Tommy woodson (5 td, 6 int. 52.6% comp. %) played instead. tommy woodson is a redshirt freshman and seriously plays like it. honestly, if this kid plays, which I have to assume he won't, akron will not win this game and will more than likely get blown out. in the last two games this kid threw 6 interceptions. the reason im assuming tommy woodson will not be playing is that prior to the concussion, Pohl was the starter for the last 18 games. Pohl has been suited up and practicing in full gear for over a week. If I make this assumption that Pohl is playing, and re analyze the statistics (basically throwing out the offensive stats for the last 2.5 games) I can get a better feel of the team. honestly, akron's passing game is a whole lot better. they go from a little better than avg. to pretty good. and this will go against a bad BG defense. also the turn the ball over significantly less. Defensive turnovers. Akron has 8 interceptions and 8 fumble recoveries on the year. Bowling green 4 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. On the year, akron is 9-6 with fumbles, and BG is 4-3. Akron should be able to throw the ball and play a safe game against BG. Bowling green will have to throw the ball as well as I do not see them having great success on the ground. If you just think about the information... this is what I come up with. If Pohl plays, we have akron with a better quarterback, better defense (both passing, rushing, and turnovers) offensively BG will have the advantage in the passing game. I'll wait til game time to hit this game because it seems like since last night the line is moving in my favor and honestly I was hoping the line would be more around 3 or 4. Either way, I know which side im on ... still AKRON. |
peanut_smuggler | 12 |
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tsw- thanks for the info. although BG's 3 rb avg at least 5 yds per carry, the teams rushing yds per game don't look good against any team they have played when comparing the opponents avg. defensive rushing yards allowed. and yes, the defense has played a little better in the recent games. but still not great. other things to note are that BG's quarterback is a sophomore with 10 TDs and 9 interceptions and has a 60% completion percentage. looking up the other side I found some usefull information... and did some digging. =) |
peanut_smuggler | 12 |
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hi guys, did some digging. bowling green can pass rather well but not run the ball very well. akron on defense defends the run but not is a little less than average when defending the pass. Bowling green will be throwing the ball. On the other hand, bowling greens defense sucks both ways.... badly. akron's offense is average at passing and subpar at running the ball. not sure which one has the edge but in my opinion when a horrible defense comes against an average offense. the offense tends to look pretty good. we will see if im wrong about this. turnover margin goes to akron. common opponent ohio. akron held it decently close and lost by a field goal in the final two minutes. first downs and yardage almost similar... you could say almost identical. 1 more turnover than opponent. bowling green won 31-13. people might look at that and think ... ah easy decision we should play bowling green but not so fast. ohio had 1 more turnover, dominated TOP as well as first downs and yardage. I did not personally see this game, but usually when I look at the stats and the results, and I see this, the game usually plays out where 1 team is controlling the game but either of two things... cannot convert and has to settle for field goals when the opponent gets touchdowns or the turnovers that did occur benefitted the opponent (shortened the field and helped them score). or both. basically ohio had 29 first downs to BG 19, 513 offensive yds to 355, and dominated TOP 39:21 to 20:39. its usually not good to compare teams to other teams but akron total off. rank is 77, ohios 90 bg 36. defense 43, 92, and 3rd from last is bowling green. will look at other stats later. as of right now im all over AKRON. |
peanut_smuggler | 12 |
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I enjoy looking for "fishy" lines and studying the game to see if I can see what the linesmakers see and what everyone else doesn't. I did my usualy stats on offense and defense. Minn avg defense both ways. Passing offense... bad. Rushing ... killer... or good at the least. Illinois avg to a little less than avg defense on both sides of the ball. worse in rushing defense. offensively they pass the ball well and don't run good at all. seems like a tale of 1 passing team against a running team. The numbers tell me that Minnesota WILL NOT be stopped running the ball. on the other side, Illinois should be able to pass decently. I feel like Minnesota opens this statistically and don't understand the line still. I used a comparison of Minnesota to Wisconsin who Illinois has just played. Difference being wisc is better in every aspect. So I looked at when they played and the results. Wisconsin won by 10 at home. This is interesting, but looking at the scoring summary, after the second quarter when they were tied, Wisconsin dominated the game until they were up 38-14 at the beginning of the 4th. Illinois stopped scoring and was down by 24. The 4th quarter they scored 14 pts to bring the final score to 38-28. I feel like Minnesota takes this, but I feel uneasy about this game... road chalk doesn't scare me so much... I feel more comfortable if the line had opened at 7 or something. so apparently the line did open at 7 and there has been RLM on this game to the point where the line is at 5.5. I think I'm laying off this game. The backdoor in this game is possible since Illinois is a passing team and since they will probably be down they will be passing. I just don't feel comfortable on this game. GL to whoever bets it. |
peanut_smuggler | 1 |
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what did I say, key to this game was the passing and the turnovers... not even end of first half and boise has 329 yds passing. crazy.
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peanut_smuggler | 26 |
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No One Loses! Troy backers have +14.5 and South Alabama people bought it to 14. What's the big deal. Brutal but not a loss. |
peanut_smuggler | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Crafty84:
Under all in
not looking good.... hope for your sake they slow it down |
peanut_smuggler | 26 |
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Good luck. may tail you on this.
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talesfromdcrypt | 14 |
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great start for boise. they look to be moving the ball pretty well, but the these penaltys... if they keep getting penalties it will slow and hinder them. Next game I'll also look at team penalties. Defense looks good.... but its still early. |
peanut_smuggler | 26 |
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