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Been a tough stretch of games, Euros have been pretty unpredictable thus far
Wed picks, Van? Thx
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vanzack | 136 |
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Whatcha got for Mon morning, Van? Thx
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vanzack | 136 |
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Vanzack World Cup thread
Thanks again for all the hard work and keeping your word to come back in here and post your picks. I'll be tailing like many others in here. |
vanzack | 1042 |
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Bravo, Vanzack.
I pulled up Covers to check for this EXACT thread from you and, viola, here it is. I was watching the game with a group of people and I was screaming at the TV for the Falcons for go for 2 at that point (and ESPECIALLY after 2 offsides penalties by the Seahawks making the attempt even shorter) and they thought I was nuts. I kept bringing it up and by the end of the game they were asking me to manage their 401k accounts, lol. Another very interesting dynamic was Atlanta got EXTREMELY lucky that Seattle scored their TD with about :31 to go. At that point, they needed to let them score and preserve time to go along with their 2 timeouts remaining. I was half-expecting ATL to just stand up on defense on that play and let him score, but alas it didn't happen. As a counter to THAT, it would have almost behooved SEA to go down at the 1 foot line and try to get their TD with as little amount of time as possible. Although it could be argued that is playing with fire and you take the lead there no matter what. All in all, it was a fascinating game and ending strategy-wise.
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vanzack | 131 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo: baseball is going to be very hard to beat without matchbook in my opinion, this is beyond a nightmare... My sentiments exactly. I am pissed beyond words right now and don't know what my plans will be for bases going forward. Just got my Baseball Prospectus in the mail too... |
BrianLaverty | 168 |
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wow, I am surprised Dayton didn't make it onto you card somehow, nropp...
GL |
nropp11 | 972 |
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I think this game already moving above the 3 to 3.5 says quite a bit.
I am a Buckeye hater but tOSU -3 to the bank here GL |
DoTheD3w | 18 |
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One last thing and probably the most obvious: another part of the "art" aspect is of course watching the games and the "eyeball test" as a lot of people like to say.
DU4L: I don't know how you can have weekly ratings versus overall ratings... please explain. Also, I have no idea how you can assign over 10 points of HFA in some games. 6 or 6.5 would seem like the absolute max to me - and only for teams like Boise, VT, Oregon, Florida |
lineguesser | 38 |
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Quote Originally Posted by VegasMaxx: I'd be impressed if you could tell me how you arrive at those numbersand what kind of math you use. I've met so many people that just look at 3 or 4 different websites with power ratings and call themself a handicapper Actually I put quite a bit of time and effort into it. Every Sunday morning I'll go through all of the box scores from the previous day. I'm looking at a lot of different factors; it is part art and part science. The final score of the game rarely tells you how the two teams played or what went on in the game, so you have to dig deeper. The main stats I'll look at are yardage differential, TO's, TOP, ypp (yards per point which measures effeciency), and the drive charts to see how the flow of the game went. Once I'm done with this, I'll drop, improve, or leave each of the two teams alone. Sometimes teams get dropped when they win and sometimes they go up for "good losses" where they outplayed their opponent or if say a 28 point dog loses by only 7. I try not to move teams up or down by more than 3 points (my avg team is about a 75.5 with the best teams in the mid to high 90's) as I feel that is overreacting and the biggest flaw of the betting public - see my ECU/VT example above). This takes 3 or 4 hours depending on how deep I want to get into things. Then I'll go check the injury reports and adjust again for injuries to mainly the key players. As far as using other websites, I may look at Sagarin when I am done to make sure I'm not totally off on something. Also, like Apocalypse was saying, I'll "readjust" a few teams during the course of the season if I feel they are off or I have been assessing them incorrectly (by looking at season-long stats like MoV, yardage differential, etc.) I've been doing these for about 3 years and when you begin them you kind of do start from scratch but you learn a ton doing them. |
lineguesser | 38 |
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For those of you who know who Kenny White is (former head oddsmaker at LVSC), here is his weekly power poll that he uses to set the lines:
Link Now, LVSC isn't all that great or accurate IMO, but White is pretty sharp and I listen to him on local radio every week talk about how they would only shift a line a point or two to shade for public perception. BTW, GAM was being facetious you guys, c'mon now |
lineguesser | 38 |
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Thanks Apocalypse... I know they have to line for public perception as well, especially in the "big games".
But let me tell you this, if they end up making TCU a TD+ dog to anybody, the books will end up taking some of the bigger bets they've ever seen on the underdog from some big dick players who know what they're doing. The same could be said for Boise if it would've ended up being them instead. |
lineguesser | 38 |
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replied to
Do you hate CBS football announcers Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson as much as I do?
in Movies & Television
Verne calling football:
Verne calling The Masters: Hole #16 Gary Danielson opening his mouth ever |
WahooS | 20 |
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sorry, bad formatting:
1. Oregon 97 2. TCU 96.5 3. Ohio St. 96 3. Stanford 96 5. Boise St. 94.5 6. Auburn 94 7. Alabama 93.5 8. Oklahoma 93 9. Wisconsin 92 10. Virginia Tech 91.5 |
lineguesser | 38 |
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And if anyone is interested, here is my top 10, the difference in points is what that team would be favored over any other on a neutral:
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lineguesser | 38 |
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I feel compelled to bring this up as I have been seeing a bevy of "what would you favor team A over team B by in (fill in the blank) BCS bowl" over the past couple of days.
I've been seeing opinions from the board all over the place: - Auburn being favored by over 10 over TCU - People wanting to take Mig St over tOSU on a neutral - Wisconsin being suggested as over a FD favorite over TCU - People suggesting that Boise isn't a top 10 team Well, all of the above are absurd suggestions to myself personally. Keep in mind, PR's are totally different from rankings and the polls. Some of the numbers I've been seeing are so out of whack, that I just wanted to see what people's approach is when they see some of these lines. Case in point, after VT had their 0-2 start, some were suggesting they should have been a mere -3 over ECU, when the line came out VT -18 or so. Doesn't that sound a bit ridiculous now? If you do use PR's feel free to list your top 5 or 10 teams as I'm curious to how others are rating these teams. GAM, you don't need to answer, I know yours. |
lineguesser | 38 |
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TCU -6
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Grinder360 | 91 |
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how about the fact that he just plain blows
the second kick was obviously overcompensating for pushing the first kick |
Syddigs | 48 |
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anyone who thinks that TCU would be over +3 is dreaming
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kidvegas03 | 26 |
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my PR's would have it TCU -2
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kidvegas03 | 26 |
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notice that Zoubek wasn't even there until he was in there air... what's he supposed to do, manipulate gravity to avoid him?
block all the way fucking awful call |
bibendi23 | 29 |
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