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If it was a million dollars on a TV game show, I would not risk it at a +EV proposition for another million.
If I was on "Who wants to be a millionaire" and had $32,000 with a 50-50, I would take a wild guess because I'm risking $16K to win an additional $32K at 50-50. But if I was at $64K, I would not take the 50-50 wild guess even though I'd be risking only $48K to win an additional $61K. This time, potentially reducing what was like a $3600 SU wager was not ideal for me, in fact, I almost loaded up an additional thousand on the Over. But then my cashout date would just get pushed another 7 days. |
flopme | 102 |
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To everyone telling me I should have hedged, please stop. I have no regret whatsoever for not hedging. It's a stupid bet that's crazy -EV.
You would start betting like me and plan ahead of time. I made that parlay for $300 and a 6-gamer for $100. I needed that $7K. If hedging was a question, I could have made a 4-gamer for a fraction and the whole parlay for the rest. But then comes the question about hedging the final leg of a 4-gamer. $1000 or $2000 would not have made the difference for me. |
flopme | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by TheRiddler: glad to see you are ok flopme don't let this get the best of you I won't be following, watching or betting the rest of the season, or ever for that matter. Any that $300 bet was actually derived from a $200 deposit on which I got a $200 bonus and $100 was placed on a 6-teamer, technically already hedged. I lost my shirt on the worst Poker run of my life and this parlay would have come in handy. |
flopme | 102 |
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By the way folks, I will not be killing myself. The game went Under by 21 points, wasn't even close and had no chance with Arizona and the refs betting the Under.
At least I learned that every game is 50-50 and rigged games cannot be analyzed. I can't play anymore because betting the usual $500 or so per game / short parlays won't provide me with nearly enough brain dope after losing $7600 on a final leg. It was all the teams that made me money in the regular season on the Overs... Tulsa, Dallas, Indy, ECU, Okie-St. |
flopme | 102 |
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True odds on a game is 1-to-1, you are getting 0.909-to-1.
With these odds, a 5-game parlay pays out (1.909^5 -1 ) to 1, not 20 to 1. Plus with a bonus if I hit, mathematically, a 5-team parlay is the same as betting each same SU, only running the entire proceeds on the next game at a little less than -107 per game. |
flopme | 102 |
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Look at this shit. At 65.5 that FG would have been huge. But of course he had no intention of making it.
The last 10 plays were THE worst sequence on plays in my entire life of watching football. And they had to happen on the biggest and last game I will ever gamble on. I'm probably already in hell anyways. |
flopme | 102 |
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3rd down and 16 and he hands it over and runs like a fucking box.
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flopme | 102 |
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I wish I was at that game. At least I would shoot that POS AZ QB before I shoot myself.
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flopme | 102 |
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3 minutes and 15 seconds and they move 2 yards
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flopme | 102 |
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Or worst. Let's bring in 4 downs and milk 3 minutes for every 10 yards and milk the entire play clock on every fucking down.
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flopme | 102 |
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As long as they don't go '3 yards - 2 yards - 3 yards' on every fucking down, over should come in.
But they'll do just that. |
flopme | 102 |
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If that TD was not denied I was right on pace for the point needed in the 2nd half.
Of all the fucking points the refs shaved all those years, they just had to shave this one. |
flopme | 102 |
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Actually I think I will do it now. Can't stand watching these kneel downs by Arizona down by 23.
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flopme | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by chazutx:
You have a 5-game parlay...which will win roughly ~$7k if you hit. You've hit 4 of the 5. Last one has to hit and you'll win....so you take some profits off the top and guarantee yourself say half by betting the under on the ok st. game. If you'd have bet say $3000 on the ok st. under....you lose out on $3300 should it not hit but you'll hit your 5-game parlay....grossing roughly $3500. Should your parlay not hit you're out $300 for your parlay risk and win the ok st. under bet of $3k. You guarantee yourself $3k in profit either way. I'd take that any day over risking that last game to win $7k. GL on the over.... OK. I got what you were trying to say. I never hedge. Let me explain. If I had bet each one of those games SU, running all the proceeds on the next game, I would have about $3600 at the end of the 4th game. I would still shove the entire $3600 on the final game because $3600 or a "guaranteed" profit of 2k or whatever does not allow me to live at this point in time. Got 17 minutes (or less), do I lock my door, any evidence to destroy? |
flopme | 102 |
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Ref got the Under
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flopme | 102 |
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Under review
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flopme | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by chazutx:
Clearly you didn't understand the word "hedge" in my post with taking the under. Nevermind...I won't even try to explain it. BOL man!
Please do. |
flopme | 102 |
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Are you kidding me? 5 games starting on different times, I could have bet the first 4 for $100 and all five for $200 or whatever.
Why should I pay double juice? I'm already down 8k over my head for December. This will get me close to even and out of debt. 1k wouldn't do shit for me. |
flopme | 102 |
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I meant 24 minutes.
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flopme | 102 |
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9 points in the last 21 minutes of play
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flopme | 102 |
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