Let’s talk about what this forum is named for. 2 years ago was a very good night for me, I faded Rasmussen polls and wound up running the table. With all of the polls out lately, I thought it would be interesting to see what the betting lines look like. Source is 5 Dimes.
Here are Senate lines: AK– Begich +120, Sullivan -160 AR– Pryor +170, Cotton -230 CO– Udall -380, Gardner +260 GA– Nunn +325, Perdue -475 IA– Braley -185, Ernst +145 KS– Orman +180, Roberts -260 KY– ALG +650, McConnell -1,350 LA– Landrieu +200, Cassidy -280 MI– Peters -1,200, Land +600 NC– Hagan -350, Tillis +250 NH– Shaheen -900, Brown +500 Being a Dem I think that Udall and Braley look like good value bets as favorites and Orman looks like an underdog value. Orman is nearly a 2:1 underdog but this appears to be a year where voters seem inclined to punish all Kansas Republicans, so I’m not sure if the attack of Orman being a “liberal” will work (he’s running as an independent). I’d have to say that Tillis presents a nice opportunity as an underdog if the environment gets worse for national Dems. I also think that Sullivan in Alaska represents pretty good value. I think that Cotton and Cassidy are a bit inflated right now.
Anyone see Governor’s lines or other bets up yet? Anyone have any leans?
Let’s talk about what this forum is named for. 2 years ago was a very good night for me, I faded Rasmussen polls and wound up running the table. With all of the polls out lately, I thought it would be interesting to see what the betting lines look like. Source is 5 Dimes.
Here are Senate lines: AK– Begich +120, Sullivan -160 AR– Pryor +170, Cotton -230 CO– Udall -380, Gardner +260 GA– Nunn +325, Perdue -475 IA– Braley -185, Ernst +145 KS– Orman +180, Roberts -260 KY– ALG +650, McConnell -1,350 LA– Landrieu +200, Cassidy -280 MI– Peters -1,200, Land +600 NC– Hagan -350, Tillis +250 NH– Shaheen -900, Brown +500 Being a Dem I think that Udall and Braley look like good value bets as favorites and Orman looks like an underdog value. Orman is nearly a 2:1 underdog but this appears to be a year where voters seem inclined to punish all Kansas Republicans, so I’m not sure if the attack of Orman being a “liberal” will work (he’s running as an independent). I’d have to say that Tillis presents a nice opportunity as an underdog if the environment gets worse for national Dems. I also think that Sullivan in Alaska represents pretty good value. I think that Cotton and Cassidy are a bit inflated right now.
Anyone see Governor’s lines or other bets up yet? Anyone have any leans?
The I in Kansas is gaining lots of support. He's pretty moderate and Roberts is really unpopular.
Canovsp can talk more but I think Cassidy in LA is a great bet. Obama is insanely unpopular there and I see no chance for her.
Brown in NH has gained no footing.
This is because of the trvel money thing she apologized for? Before all of that I thought she only trailed Cassidy by 2-3 points? He has pulled away in polls now?
The I in Kansas is gaining lots of support. He's pretty moderate and Roberts is really unpopular.
Canovsp can talk more but I think Cassidy in LA is a great bet. Obama is insanely unpopular there and I see no chance for her.
Brown in NH has gained no footing.
This is because of the trvel money thing she apologized for? Before all of that I thought she only trailed Cassidy by 2-3 points? He has pulled away in polls now?
I do think that Cassidy wins in LA but Landrieu is a multi-term incumbent who has won against the odds in the past (2002 for example) which is my hesitation at betting -280. I’d say about -200 sounds about right.
For reference Real Clear Politics has the following aggregates which include Rassmussen polls:
Regarding Georgia I don’t see how Nunn wins. For starters in GA (and LA for that matter) a winner has to have 50% of the vote. So Dems can’t win with 47-46 with 7% going to the Libertarian candidate. If they don’t hit 50% then a run-off happens with the top 2 vote getters. She’ll get around 44-47% but getting that extra several percent doesn’t seem likely to me. I think the odds for Perdue are low given that dynamic of Nunn needing to hit 50%.
I do think that Cassidy wins in LA but Landrieu is a multi-term incumbent who has won against the odds in the past (2002 for example) which is my hesitation at betting -280. I’d say about -200 sounds about right.
For reference Real Clear Politics has the following aggregates which include Rassmussen polls:
Regarding Georgia I don’t see how Nunn wins. For starters in GA (and LA for that matter) a winner has to have 50% of the vote. So Dems can’t win with 47-46 with 7% going to the Libertarian candidate. If they don’t hit 50% then a run-off happens with the top 2 vote getters. She’ll get around 44-47% but getting that extra several percent doesn’t seem likely to me. I think the odds for Perdue are low given that dynamic of Nunn needing to hit 50%.
I do think that Cassidy wins in LA but Landrieu is a multi-term incumbent who has won against the odds in the past (2002 for example) which is my hesitation at betting -280. I’d say about -200 sounds about right.
For reference Real Clear Politics has the following aggregates which include Rassmussen polls:
Regarding Georgia I don’t see how Nunn wins. For starters in GA (and LA for that matter) a winner has to have 50% of the vote. So Dems can’t win with 47-46 with 7% going to the Libertarian candidate. If they don’t hit 50% then a run-off happens with the top 2 vote getters. She’ll get around 44-47% but getting that extra several percent doesn’t seem likely to me. I think the odds for Perdue are low given that dynamic of Nunn needing to hit 50%.
Doesn't Perdue need 50% also or are you thinking Liberatarians pull more votes from dems?
I think this stuff with Landrieu came early enough it may blow over.
I don't think, or hope they win, but I could see it---especially, if as everyone thingks---it is the time for the woman president. maybe this be a prequel.
I will take your word for what odds should be--I have no clue.
I do think that Cassidy wins in LA but Landrieu is a multi-term incumbent who has won against the odds in the past (2002 for example) which is my hesitation at betting -280. I’d say about -200 sounds about right.
For reference Real Clear Politics has the following aggregates which include Rassmussen polls:
Regarding Georgia I don’t see how Nunn wins. For starters in GA (and LA for that matter) a winner has to have 50% of the vote. So Dems can’t win with 47-46 with 7% going to the Libertarian candidate. If they don’t hit 50% then a run-off happens with the top 2 vote getters. She’ll get around 44-47% but getting that extra several percent doesn’t seem likely to me. I think the odds for Perdue are low given that dynamic of Nunn needing to hit 50%.
Doesn't Perdue need 50% also or are you thinking Liberatarians pull more votes from dems?
I think this stuff with Landrieu came early enough it may blow over.
I don't think, or hope they win, but I could see it---especially, if as everyone thingks---it is the time for the woman president. maybe this be a prequel.
I will take your word for what odds should be--I have no clue.
The I in Kansas is gaining lots of support. He's pretty moderate and Roberts is really unpopular.
Canovsp can talk more but I think Cassidy in LA is a great bet. Obama is insanely unpopular there and I see no chance for her.
Brown in NH has gained no footing.
The Landrieu's are a powerful political family. She'll carry New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Cassidy will carry the other parts of the state but NOLA and Baton Rouge are the two biggest cities.
Since I don't live in Louisiana anymore my finger isn't exactly on the pulse of the local polls but I am following from afar. I actually thought Landrieu had a slight lead.
The I in Kansas is gaining lots of support. He's pretty moderate and Roberts is really unpopular.
Canovsp can talk more but I think Cassidy in LA is a great bet. Obama is insanely unpopular there and I see no chance for her.
Brown in NH has gained no footing.
The Landrieu's are a powerful political family. She'll carry New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Cassidy will carry the other parts of the state but NOLA and Baton Rouge are the two biggest cities.
Since I don't live in Louisiana anymore my finger isn't exactly on the pulse of the local polls but I am following from afar. I actually thought Landrieu had a slight lead.
The Landrieu's are a powerful political family. She'll carry New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Cassidy will carry the other parts of the state but NOLA and Baton Rouge are the two biggest cities.
Since I don't live in Louisiana anymore my finger isn't exactly on the pulse of the local polls but I am following from afar. I actually thought Landrieu had a slight lead.
3 down I think---but don't know if travel thing hurt her or not.
The Landrieu's are a powerful political family. She'll carry New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Cassidy will carry the other parts of the state but NOLA and Baton Rouge are the two biggest cities.
Since I don't live in Louisiana anymore my finger isn't exactly on the pulse of the local polls but I am following from afar. I actually thought Landrieu had a slight lead.
3 down I think---but don't know if travel thing hurt her or not.
Typically libertarians take more votes away from Republicans then Democrats. That's why Dems are happy to have them on the ballot. Same for the green party being the reverse. I think a good example is the Montana Senate Race in 2012; Dem 48.5, GOP 44.5 and Libertarian took 6.5%. Without the Libertarian the Dem probably gets to 50% but they were happy to have him on the ballot.
The Landrieu residency stuff is nothing. It only becomes a big deal when voters perceive that you aren't around and have lost touch which isn't the case with her. With Pat Roberts in Kansas it is partly that (he is rarely in Kansas and his address in Kansas is a timeshare) and voters absolutely hate Sam Brownback the Governor of Kansas. He cut a ton of services that people use and they are ticked off (even though he basically did what he said he was going to do if elected). Kansas may very well be a GOP wipeout this year based on voters hating Brownback.
I'm curious to see Governor's lines in WI, FL and MI when they come out.
Typically libertarians take more votes away from Republicans then Democrats. That's why Dems are happy to have them on the ballot. Same for the green party being the reverse. I think a good example is the Montana Senate Race in 2012; Dem 48.5, GOP 44.5 and Libertarian took 6.5%. Without the Libertarian the Dem probably gets to 50% but they were happy to have him on the ballot.
The Landrieu residency stuff is nothing. It only becomes a big deal when voters perceive that you aren't around and have lost touch which isn't the case with her. With Pat Roberts in Kansas it is partly that (he is rarely in Kansas and his address in Kansas is a timeshare) and voters absolutely hate Sam Brownback the Governor of Kansas. He cut a ton of services that people use and they are ticked off (even though he basically did what he said he was going to do if elected). Kansas may very well be a GOP wipeout this year based on voters hating Brownback.
I'm curious to see Governor's lines in WI, FL and MI when they come out.
The Landrieu's are a powerful political family. She'll carry New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Cassidy will carry the other parts of the state but NOLA and Baton Rouge are the two biggest cities.
Since I don't live in Louisiana anymore my finger isn't exactly on the pulse of the local polls but I am following from afar. I actually thought Landrieu had a slight lead.
I agree with all this which is why I think she is vulnerable. She has plateaued. She is not going to pick up really any more undecideds because they already know her and because Obama's unpopularity there is going to break them towards the R.
The Landrieu's are a powerful political family. She'll carry New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Cassidy will carry the other parts of the state but NOLA and Baton Rouge are the two biggest cities.
Since I don't live in Louisiana anymore my finger isn't exactly on the pulse of the local polls but I am following from afar. I actually thought Landrieu had a slight lead.
I agree with all this which is why I think she is vulnerable. She has plateaued. She is not going to pick up really any more undecideds because they already know her and because Obama's unpopularity there is going to break them towards the R.
Typically libertarians take more votes away from Republicans then Democrats. That's why Dems are happy to have them on the ballot. Same for the green party being the reverse. I think a good example is the Montana Senate Race in 2012; Dem 48.5, GOP 44.5 and Libertarian took 6.5%. Without the Libertarian the Dem probably gets to 50% but they were happy to have him on the ballot.
The Landrieu residency stuff is nothing. It only becomes a big deal when voters perceive that you aren't around and have lost touch which isn't the case with her. With Pat Roberts in Kansas it is partly that (he is rarely in Kansas and his address in Kansas is a timeshare) and voters absolutely hate Sam Brownback the Governor of Kansas. He cut a ton of services that people use and they are ticked off (even though he basically did what he said he was going to do if elected). Kansas may very well be a GOP wipeout this year based on voters hating Brownback.
I'm curious to see Governor's lines in WI, FL and MI when they come out.
Was referring to Nunn residency. And the fact that she is helped by Libertarian taking votes from Republican.
Typically libertarians take more votes away from Republicans then Democrats. That's why Dems are happy to have them on the ballot. Same for the green party being the reverse. I think a good example is the Montana Senate Race in 2012; Dem 48.5, GOP 44.5 and Libertarian took 6.5%. Without the Libertarian the Dem probably gets to 50% but they were happy to have him on the ballot.
The Landrieu residency stuff is nothing. It only becomes a big deal when voters perceive that you aren't around and have lost touch which isn't the case with her. With Pat Roberts in Kansas it is partly that (he is rarely in Kansas and his address in Kansas is a timeshare) and voters absolutely hate Sam Brownback the Governor of Kansas. He cut a ton of services that people use and they are ticked off (even though he basically did what he said he was going to do if elected). Kansas may very well be a GOP wipeout this year based on voters hating Brownback.
I'm curious to see Governor's lines in WI, FL and MI when they come out.
Was referring to Nunn residency. And the fact that she is helped by Libertarian taking votes from Republican.
I think the most likely scenario is 50/50 but Biden breaks the tie so the Dems would still hold the Senate.
Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are GOP slam dunks. I do think they win 2 of Arkansas, Alaska and Louisiana and then you have the 50/50 split.
If they do win 3 of those and the independent wins in Kansas then the GOP would still be at 50/50 as I don't see why the independent would caucus with the GOP.
I think the most likely scenario is 50/50 but Biden breaks the tie so the Dems would still hold the Senate.
Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are GOP slam dunks. I do think they win 2 of Arkansas, Alaska and Louisiana and then you have the 50/50 split.
If they do win 3 of those and the independent wins in Kansas then the GOP would still be at 50/50 as I don't see why the independent would caucus with the GOP.
Something is just a bit off about these midterms. And its a direct result of the pathetic and incompetent leadership within the GOP.
Republicans should be polling substantially better...I have doubts about them winning Arkansas. On paper, Cotton looks like a superstar, but listen to the guy and you understand why that race is close.. and races like NC showing Hagan ahead and Braley ahead in Iowa tell me something just ain't right...
even in SoDak the "slam dunk" has lost much ground, thanks to a third party former Senator, still a heavy favorite though
Polls are often wrong as we learned in 2012, so anything could happen and there is lots of time left, but I"m still sticking to my prediction last Spring the GOP comes up short, probably by a seat.
Something is just a bit off about these midterms. And its a direct result of the pathetic and incompetent leadership within the GOP.
Republicans should be polling substantially better...I have doubts about them winning Arkansas. On paper, Cotton looks like a superstar, but listen to the guy and you understand why that race is close.. and races like NC showing Hagan ahead and Braley ahead in Iowa tell me something just ain't right...
even in SoDak the "slam dunk" has lost much ground, thanks to a third party former Senator, still a heavy favorite though
Polls are often wrong as we learned in 2012, so anything could happen and there is lots of time left, but I"m still sticking to my prediction last Spring the GOP comes up short, probably by a seat.
Something is just a bit off about these midterms. And its a direct result of the pathetic and incompetent leadership within the GOP.
Republicans should be polling substantially better...I have doubts about them winning Arkansas. On paper, Cotton looks like a superstar, but listen to the guy and you understand why that race is close.. and races like NC showing Hagan ahead and Braley ahead in Iowa tell me something just ain't right...
even in SoDak the "slam dunk" has lost much ground, thanks to a third party former Senator, still a heavy favorite though
Polls are often wrong as we learned in 2012, so anything could happen and there is lots of time left, but I"m still sticking to my prediction last Spring the GOP comes up short, probably by a seat.
Pryor is a pretty good and popular guy which is helping him (and I agree on Cotton...he really doesn't do himself favors when he speaks). The issue in Ark will be voter turnout.
NC surprises me as well. I actually think Tillis wins and I like the +250.
The Kansas race is the most surprising. I think people are just drawn to anyone with an (I) right now.
Something is just a bit off about these midterms. And its a direct result of the pathetic and incompetent leadership within the GOP.
Republicans should be polling substantially better...I have doubts about them winning Arkansas. On paper, Cotton looks like a superstar, but listen to the guy and you understand why that race is close.. and races like NC showing Hagan ahead and Braley ahead in Iowa tell me something just ain't right...
even in SoDak the "slam dunk" has lost much ground, thanks to a third party former Senator, still a heavy favorite though
Polls are often wrong as we learned in 2012, so anything could happen and there is lots of time left, but I"m still sticking to my prediction last Spring the GOP comes up short, probably by a seat.
Pryor is a pretty good and popular guy which is helping him (and I agree on Cotton...he really doesn't do himself favors when he speaks). The issue in Ark will be voter turnout.
NC surprises me as well. I actually think Tillis wins and I like the +250.
The Kansas race is the most surprising. I think people are just drawn to anyone with an (I) right now.
Looks like Democrats in the mid-term are in even more trouble than Nate Sliver is saying they will be.........
Sunday during an interview with “60 Minutes” President Barack Obama said that he thinks Democrats can maintain control of the Senate .............KOD ?
Looks like Democrats in the mid-term are in even more trouble than Nate Sliver is saying they will be.........
Sunday during an interview with “60 Minutes” President Barack Obama said that he thinks Democrats can maintain control of the Senate .............KOD ?
I can see the Republicans picking up seats in Alaska, Montana, SD, Louisiana and WV. They have to get one more (Iowa?, Colo? NC?) while holding on in Kansas. I think they fall just short.
I can see the Republicans picking up seats in Alaska, Montana, SD, Louisiana and WV. They have to get one more (Iowa?, Colo? NC?) while holding on in Kansas. I think they fall just short.
Let’s talk about what this forum is named for. 2 years ago was a very good night for me, I faded Rasmussen polls and wound up running the table. With all of the polls out lately, I thought it would be interesting to see what the betting lines look like. Source is 5 Dimes.
Here are Senate lines: AK– Begich +120, Sullivan -160 AR– Pryor +170, Cotton -230 CO– Udall -380, Gardner +260 GA– Nunn +325, Perdue -475 IA– Braley -185, Ernst +145 KS– Orman +180, Roberts -260 KY– ALG +650, McConnell -1,350 LA– Landrieu +200, Cassidy -280 MI– Peters -1,200, Land +600 NC– Hagan -350, Tillis +250 NH– Shaheen -900, Brown +500 Being a Dem I think that Udall and Braley look like good value bets as favorites and Orman looks like an underdog value. Orman is nearly a 2:1 underdog but this appears to be a year where voters seem inclined to punish all Kansas Republicans, so I’m not sure if the attack of Orman being a “liberal” will work (he’s running as an independent). I’d have to say that Tillis presents a nice opportunity as an underdog if the environment gets worse for national Dems. I also think that Sullivan in Alaska represents pretty good value. I think that Cotton and Cassidy are a bit inflated right now.
Anyone see Governor’s lines or other bets up yet? Anyone have any leans?
I'll put 2 uits on Brown in NH and Charlie Baker MA governor.
Let’s talk about what this forum is named for. 2 years ago was a very good night for me, I faded Rasmussen polls and wound up running the table. With all of the polls out lately, I thought it would be interesting to see what the betting lines look like. Source is 5 Dimes.
Here are Senate lines: AK– Begich +120, Sullivan -160 AR– Pryor +170, Cotton -230 CO– Udall -380, Gardner +260 GA– Nunn +325, Perdue -475 IA– Braley -185, Ernst +145 KS– Orman +180, Roberts -260 KY– ALG +650, McConnell -1,350 LA– Landrieu +200, Cassidy -280 MI– Peters -1,200, Land +600 NC– Hagan -350, Tillis +250 NH– Shaheen -900, Brown +500 Being a Dem I think that Udall and Braley look like good value bets as favorites and Orman looks like an underdog value. Orman is nearly a 2:1 underdog but this appears to be a year where voters seem inclined to punish all Kansas Republicans, so I’m not sure if the attack of Orman being a “liberal” will work (he’s running as an independent). I’d have to say that Tillis presents a nice opportunity as an underdog if the environment gets worse for national Dems. I also think that Sullivan in Alaska represents pretty good value. I think that Cotton and Cassidy are a bit inflated right now.
Anyone see Governor’s lines or other bets up yet? Anyone have any leans?
I'll put 2 uits on Brown in NH and Charlie Baker MA governor.
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