the only thing holding me back is i don't get the line. i really didn't get Cincy -2.5 last week. i kind of get this one. people think TB is going to be good from day one because they added some nice free agents and had a good draft. and no one likes chicago. but 7 seems high. it doesn't appear to be moving now, so i'll wait (and probably pay -125 or so again on friday ).
Everyone thinking about Bucs stompin Chicago last year in Tampa, on top of what you mentioned. That line is a bit funny though, going from a 2.5 on the Cutler led Dolphins to a 7 on Cutler-less Bears who stayed with a good Atlanta squad. I am ready to jump on the Texans if/when it hits 7 just on principle, neither team could possibly be as bad as they looked last week but no way should a ginger ever be laying a td to anyone, ever. Watson gets the start for Texas, and thats a good thing since he will be running for his life all night because their o-line cant block pop warner kids. Which brings me to he can just throw it! Wait theres the 3 TEs on concussion protocol and also Ellington a WR. So right about now is where i would normally be ready to fade except the Bengals are just as bad, and will find a way to win something like 19-15
the only thing holding me back is i don't get the line. i really didn't get Cincy -2.5 last week. i kind of get this one. people think TB is going to be good from day one because they added some nice free agents and had a good draft. and no one likes chicago. but 7 seems high. it doesn't appear to be moving now, so i'll wait (and probably pay -125 or so again on friday ).
Everyone thinking about Bucs stompin Chicago last year in Tampa, on top of what you mentioned. That line is a bit funny though, going from a 2.5 on the Cutler led Dolphins to a 7 on Cutler-less Bears who stayed with a good Atlanta squad. I am ready to jump on the Texans if/when it hits 7 just on principle, neither team could possibly be as bad as they looked last week but no way should a ginger ever be laying a td to anyone, ever. Watson gets the start for Texas, and thats a good thing since he will be running for his life all night because their o-line cant block pop warner kids. Which brings me to he can just throw it! Wait theres the 3 TEs on concussion protocol and also Ellington a WR. So right about now is where i would normally be ready to fade except the Bengals are just as bad, and will find a way to win something like 19-15
AZ @ Indy +7.5 indy sucks. we've been saying that for a couple of years. they really suck without luck who doesn't appear to be playing this week. if i were him, i'd milk that injury until management gets some decent players. anyway, to lose that badly to the rams is really bad. it's going to be hard to bet this team until they show something. but then again, everyone will be thinking that so expect some inflated lines. looks like brissett will be starting this week and that could be enough to make indy competitive against some teams. brissett has to be better than tolzien and might be a decent backup.
AZ is ok but palmer is about done. he should not be throwing 3 int's against detroit. add a lost fumble by johnson and AZ loses the turnover battle 4-1 to detroit. yet, they were still winning in the 4th quarter. but now johnson is out and that puts more pressure on palmer. so, you can't take AZ as big road favorite. they might destroy indy but i think you need to see AZ play well before you give a lot of points with them, especially on the road. but can you take indy. AZ has a decent defense. at some point, stafford will put points on you, but can you say that about indy? probably not.
two strong, competing angles. this spread is right to me, but it's too many points to give with AZ. but the colts are horrible. how do you let goff throw for 300+ yards and no int's? no opinion yet.
Philly @ KC -4.5 again, i'm not going to spend much time thinking about KC's win against new england. they looked great but i don't see that happening often. smith's and hunt's numbers were just ridiculous. i still see KC as a 7-8 win team. they did lose berry who is one of the top 3 players on the team, in my opinion and probably their team leader if that means anything.
Philly is a team we said to watch because they are supposed to have top level offensive and defensive lines. cox is a monster and had a field day against washington. he can do that any week. and they shut down washington's running game. i don't know who rob kelley is but washington usually has a pretty solid running game. and then when cousins needs to take the game over, we see what usually happens. philly was solid on offense. wentz was mostly good. i don't like philly's running game. when blount is your leader rusher, that's usually a problem. that guy is slower than shrimp with ankle weights carrying extra large burritos in both hands. they didn't need a running game against washington but probably will this week.
essentially, i like philly and think they are the better team. plus, i was looking for an inflated line after that beating of new england and i think i got it at 4.5. it's still 4.5 so we haven't lost anything with the early bet but no one seems to be jumping on this analysis. 5, 5.5 those ren;t key numbers and this isn't like to see 6 so if you want to bet philly, i'd do it before it moves against you.
Pretty much, they will still be good, but not video game numbers. Heres a chart showing where they stacked up...
AZ @ Indy +7.5 indy sucks. we've been saying that for a couple of years. they really suck without luck who doesn't appear to be playing this week. if i were him, i'd milk that injury until management gets some decent players. anyway, to lose that badly to the rams is really bad. it's going to be hard to bet this team until they show something. but then again, everyone will be thinking that so expect some inflated lines. looks like brissett will be starting this week and that could be enough to make indy competitive against some teams. brissett has to be better than tolzien and might be a decent backup.
AZ is ok but palmer is about done. he should not be throwing 3 int's against detroit. add a lost fumble by johnson and AZ loses the turnover battle 4-1 to detroit. yet, they were still winning in the 4th quarter. but now johnson is out and that puts more pressure on palmer. so, you can't take AZ as big road favorite. they might destroy indy but i think you need to see AZ play well before you give a lot of points with them, especially on the road. but can you take indy. AZ has a decent defense. at some point, stafford will put points on you, but can you say that about indy? probably not.
two strong, competing angles. this spread is right to me, but it's too many points to give with AZ. but the colts are horrible. how do you let goff throw for 300+ yards and no int's? no opinion yet.
Philly @ KC -4.5 again, i'm not going to spend much time thinking about KC's win against new england. they looked great but i don't see that happening often. smith's and hunt's numbers were just ridiculous. i still see KC as a 7-8 win team. they did lose berry who is one of the top 3 players on the team, in my opinion and probably their team leader if that means anything.
Philly is a team we said to watch because they are supposed to have top level offensive and defensive lines. cox is a monster and had a field day against washington. he can do that any week. and they shut down washington's running game. i don't know who rob kelley is but washington usually has a pretty solid running game. and then when cousins needs to take the game over, we see what usually happens. philly was solid on offense. wentz was mostly good. i don't like philly's running game. when blount is your leader rusher, that's usually a problem. that guy is slower than shrimp with ankle weights carrying extra large burritos in both hands. they didn't need a running game against washington but probably will this week.
essentially, i like philly and think they are the better team. plus, i was looking for an inflated line after that beating of new england and i think i got it at 4.5. it's still 4.5 so we haven't lost anything with the early bet but no one seems to be jumping on this analysis. 5, 5.5 those ren;t key numbers and this isn't like to see 6 so if you want to bet philly, i'd do it before it moves against you.
Pretty much, they will still be good, but not video game numbers. Heres a chart showing where they stacked up...
the only thing holding me back is i don't get the line. i really didn't get Cincy -2.5 last week. i kind of get this one. people think TB is going to be good from day one because they added some nice free agents and had a good draft. and no one likes chicago. but 7 seems high. it doesn't appear to be moving now, so i'll wait (and probably pay -125 or so again on friday ). like one of the talking heads said the other day, Tamps starters because of lack of action could find their timing off. Hope thats not the case for Miami.
the only thing holding me back is i don't get the line. i really didn't get Cincy -2.5 last week. i kind of get this one. people think TB is going to be good from day one because they added some nice free agents and had a good draft. and no one likes chicago. but 7 seems high. it doesn't appear to be moving now, so i'll wait (and probably pay -125 or so again on friday ). like one of the talking heads said the other day, Tamps starters because of lack of action could find their timing off. Hope thats not the case for Miami.
Everyone thinking about Bucs stompin Chicago last year in Tampa, on top of what you mentioned. That line is a bit funny though, going from a 2.5 on the Cutler led Dolphins to a 7 on Cutler-less Bears who stayed with a good Atlanta squad. I am ready to jump on the Texans if/when it hits 7 just on principle, neither team could possibly be as bad as they looked last week but no way should a ginger ever be laying a td to anyone, ever. Watson gets the start for Texas, and thats a good thing since he will be running for his life all night because their o-line cant block pop warner kids. Which brings me to he can just throw it! Wait theres the 3 TEs on concussion protocol and also Ellington a WR. So right about now is where i would normally be ready to fade except the Bengals are just as bad, and will find a way to win something like 19-15
you can get houston at 6.5 at about -115 right now. at some point, i have to middle this, don't i? what's holding me back is all of these injuries and other problems houston is having. not a good week for that. if it hits 7, that's clearly an overreaction and i will force myself to middle it. houston still has some great players on defense and cincy showed last week what can happen if that offense can't protect dalton. i'm sticking with the -3 for now, but will watch the line.
Everyone thinking about Bucs stompin Chicago last year in Tampa, on top of what you mentioned. That line is a bit funny though, going from a 2.5 on the Cutler led Dolphins to a 7 on Cutler-less Bears who stayed with a good Atlanta squad. I am ready to jump on the Texans if/when it hits 7 just on principle, neither team could possibly be as bad as they looked last week but no way should a ginger ever be laying a td to anyone, ever. Watson gets the start for Texas, and thats a good thing since he will be running for his life all night because their o-line cant block pop warner kids. Which brings me to he can just throw it! Wait theres the 3 TEs on concussion protocol and also Ellington a WR. So right about now is where i would normally be ready to fade except the Bengals are just as bad, and will find a way to win something like 19-15
you can get houston at 6.5 at about -115 right now. at some point, i have to middle this, don't i? what's holding me back is all of these injuries and other problems houston is having. not a good week for that. if it hits 7, that's clearly an overreaction and i will force myself to middle it. houston still has some great players on defense and cincy showed last week what can happen if that offense can't protect dalton. i'm sticking with the -3 for now, but will watch the line.
I think Philly will keep this game close and Reid should be back to normal, 21-17
KC is up to 6. i certainly didn't see coming. i guess people are really excited about KC beating the patriots. everyone saw it. people aren't so excited about philly. it'll be interesting to see what happens in this one.
I think Philly will keep this game close and Reid should be back to normal, 21-17
KC is up to 6. i certainly didn't see coming. i guess people are really excited about KC beating the patriots. everyone saw it. people aren't so excited about philly. it'll be interesting to see what happens in this one.
you can get houston at 6.5 at about -115 right now. at some point, i have to middle this, don't i? what's holding me back is all of these injuries and other problems houston is having. not a good week for that. if it hits 7, that's clearly an overreaction and i will force myself to middle it. houston still has some great players on defense and cincy showed last week what can happen if that offense can't protect dalton. i'm sticking with the -3 for now, but will watch the line.
Your 3 even was a good grab, looks like they are getting buyback now. Line down to 6 and last night when l looked at it, no way I was gonna pay -125 to take it to 7. i will either wait for ingame or pass. I am seeing quite a few good spots for teasers though. Cards down to 7, Browns up to 8. Might do some 6pt 2 team combos of Bengals pk, Skins +8.5, Browns +14, Cards -1, Broncos +8.5, Eagles +11.5 I think tonights game might be good all 4 sides of the tease as well
you can get houston at 6.5 at about -115 right now. at some point, i have to middle this, don't i? what's holding me back is all of these injuries and other problems houston is having. not a good week for that. if it hits 7, that's clearly an overreaction and i will force myself to middle it. houston still has some great players on defense and cincy showed last week what can happen if that offense can't protect dalton. i'm sticking with the -3 for now, but will watch the line.
Your 3 even was a good grab, looks like they are getting buyback now. Line down to 6 and last night when l looked at it, no way I was gonna pay -125 to take it to 7. i will either wait for ingame or pass. I am seeing quite a few good spots for teasers though. Cards down to 7, Browns up to 8. Might do some 6pt 2 team combos of Bengals pk, Skins +8.5, Browns +14, Cards -1, Broncos +8.5, Eagles +11.5 I think tonights game might be good all 4 sides of the tease as well
you can get houston at 6.5 at about -115 right now. at some point, i have to middle this, don't i? what's holding me back is all of these injuries and other problems houston is having. not a good week for that. if it hits 7, that's clearly an overreaction and i will force myself to middle it. houston still has some great players on defense and cincy showed last week what can happen if that offense can't protect dalton. i'm sticking with the -3 for now, but will watch the line.
you can get houston at 6.5 at about -115 right now. at some point, i have to middle this, don't i? what's holding me back is all of these injuries and other problems houston is having. not a good week for that. if it hits 7, that's clearly an overreaction and i will force myself to middle it. houston still has some great players on defense and cincy showed last week what can happen if that offense can't protect dalton. i'm sticking with the -3 for now, but will watch the line.
damn, was that one ugly last night. houston had the right gameplan. new Qb and a lot of injuries and they figured they'd be as conservative as possible and rely on their defense. no turnovers and it worked. you could see what cincy's plan was. they got beat up so badly by the shrimp defense the week before that they were scared to even test their OL and throw downfield more than once in the first half. they figured they could be as conservative as possible and houston couldn't score with all of their problems. one turnover and one big play and they were done. really embarrassing coaching. basically, they didn't even try in the first half because they figured they didn't need to with all of houston's problems.
betting on shitty teams as a favorite and betting on the thursday night games are two things i rarely do. i figured cincy could handle that one last night at -3. lesson learned.
but, i wouldn't be quick to write off cincy. yes, their coaching staff is abysmal. yes, dalton is a mess most of the time. but, green is an all-star, eifert is great and mixon looks good. jones is very good on defense (it's not fair to put a guy on hopkins one on one all night but he did welll) and burfict will be back soon. cincy won't play top defenses every week. they just played two of the best. the schedule will ease up soon and the offense will look much better. the coaching staff will still suck though.
damn, was that one ugly last night. houston had the right gameplan. new Qb and a lot of injuries and they figured they'd be as conservative as possible and rely on their defense. no turnovers and it worked. you could see what cincy's plan was. they got beat up so badly by the shrimp defense the week before that they were scared to even test their OL and throw downfield more than once in the first half. they figured they could be as conservative as possible and houston couldn't score with all of their problems. one turnover and one big play and they were done. really embarrassing coaching. basically, they didn't even try in the first half because they figured they didn't need to with all of houston's problems.
betting on shitty teams as a favorite and betting on the thursday night games are two things i rarely do. i figured cincy could handle that one last night at -3. lesson learned.
but, i wouldn't be quick to write off cincy. yes, their coaching staff is abysmal. yes, dalton is a mess most of the time. but, green is an all-star, eifert is great and mixon looks good. jones is very good on defense (it's not fair to put a guy on hopkins one on one all night but he did welll) and burfict will be back soon. cincy won't play top defenses every week. they just played two of the best. the schedule will ease up soon and the offense will look much better. the coaching staff will still suck though.
as i look at this set of games more, i think i'm going to switch gears and focus on bad or flawed teams giving a lot of points, kind of like week one. and like what HJS is doing this week. still need to limit these plays. that manes i'm coming off one or two of these. TN sort of fits the theme of a flawed team giving poijnts on the road (maybe no running game up against maybe a very good defense) so i'll probably come off of that with a 2 point line move in my favor.
still like washington at 3. still like KC. can't come off at 6 anyway. atlanta is up to 3 where it should be, if not 3.5. might come off or see about a live play. that game should be back and forth.
so, this means i'll be on some ugly teams but that's how we do it here at CDS
Adding:
NYJ +14 -120 Indy +7
oakland has a bad defense and questionable running game. they might win by 28 but ultimately, i have to take these kinds of points against a team with a bad defense. might as well just pencil us in for betting the jets every week as they go 1-5 straight up and 3-13 ats.
arizona's issues are obvious. and losing johnson is a big deal when your qb should have retired two years ago. indy is f*cking horrible. not sure being at home matters. they should lose this one by 21. i'll take the 7 though.
also interested to see what that NO team total is. at 6.5/56, it should be around 24.5. i might play that if the books will ever f*cking show it, especially if i can get 24.
as i look at this set of games more, i think i'm going to switch gears and focus on bad or flawed teams giving a lot of points, kind of like week one. and like what HJS is doing this week. still need to limit these plays. that manes i'm coming off one or two of these. TN sort of fits the theme of a flawed team giving poijnts on the road (maybe no running game up against maybe a very good defense) so i'll probably come off of that with a 2 point line move in my favor.
still like washington at 3. still like KC. can't come off at 6 anyway. atlanta is up to 3 where it should be, if not 3.5. might come off or see about a live play. that game should be back and forth.
so, this means i'll be on some ugly teams but that's how we do it here at CDS
Adding:
NYJ +14 -120 Indy +7
oakland has a bad defense and questionable running game. they might win by 28 but ultimately, i have to take these kinds of points against a team with a bad defense. might as well just pencil us in for betting the jets every week as they go 1-5 straight up and 3-13 ats.
arizona's issues are obvious. and losing johnson is a big deal when your qb should have retired two years ago. indy is f*cking horrible. not sure being at home matters. they should lose this one by 21. i'll take the 7 though.
also interested to see what that NO team total is. at 6.5/56, it should be around 24.5. i might play that if the books will ever f*cking show it, especially if i can get 24.
What the heck did I just watch last night? The NFL or NASL? Cincy needed to change the stale coaching environment there before the window of opportunity closed, but now it's too late.
General Covers FYI: This player is presently 4-19-1 (17%) in the NFL contest. His plays for this weekend are now up. Fade away:
GB +3, SEA -12.5, LAR -2.5 and O46, OAK -13.5, TB -6.5, AZ -7.5, CAR -7, KC -5, TN -1.5, BLT -7.5.
What the heck did I just watch last night? The NFL or NASL? Cincy needed to change the stale coaching environment there before the window of opportunity closed, but now it's too late.
General Covers FYI: This player is presently 4-19-1 (17%) in the NFL contest. His plays for this weekend are now up. Fade away:
GB +3, SEA -12.5, LAR -2.5 and O46, OAK -13.5, TB -6.5, AZ -7.5, CAR -7, KC -5, TN -1.5, BLT -7.5.
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