Summa, thanks for your extensive reply. I am not interested in winning any arguments, only arriving at a more objective view of this game. Summa seems to be a strong Jets fan so maybe a different perspective will be useful. Betting too much on one's favorite team (as well as failing to bet against one's favorite team) can be a huge problem bound up with cognitive illusions and overconfidence … for anyone who is interested I can recommend Thinking, Fast and Slow which has plenty that applies to the NFL. I disregard all opinion and speculation except possibly those of NFL coaches and GMs.
Offense
> Josh McCown should be a significantly better QB than Ryan Fitzpatrick? I don’t think so.
Well Summa, you simply voiced your opinion without any justification. Here's support for my statement: When free agency started the top QBs available were McCown, RF, Cassell and Hoyer. McCown was coveted by the Browns, by Rex at Buffalo and by the Bears’ new coaches. Cleveland won the bidding war. No one was clamoring for RF! I have to accept the actions of Pettine, Rex and the Bears' coaches which clearly say that they thought McCown was the best available. Pettine said the Browns coaches watched tape of every McCown play the past two years before offering him a nice contract — that’s a lot better basis for comparing McCown and RF than your opinion. You and other Jets' fans can spin things any way you like, but the fact is that the Jets' coaches had Geno as their starter and RF as the backup, so one must conclude that RF gives the Jets less of a chance to win than would Geno. To write that McCown is not significantly better than the Jets backup QB is without any basis.
> Do the Browns have a running game? I don’t think so. Going against one of the best run defenses in the league won’t help them.
Again, mere opinion. With SRich out what is your basis for saying the Jets have one of the best run defenses? The Browns ran well last year until Mack got hurt and have an excellent OLine. With SRich out L. Williams will probably be forced to play more than the Jets would like; Williams is a rookie who is still learning and can be expected to make mistakes in his first game, playing lots of snaps against the Browns seasoned OLine (four greens and a blue at PFF). Do the Jets have six capable guys on the DLine? Their starters may wear down in the heat playing lots of snaps.
> Do you think any DC is afraid of this unit?
I think any DC will be more worried about the Browns' offense than he will be worried about the Jets' offense! Cleveland's offense is significantly improved at QB, WR and RB (if Duke Johnson is available) from last year, when they scored 27+ ppg until Mack went down. And now they have WR Terrelle Pryor, a former NFL QB who at 6’4, 223 and running a 4.34 is a tough cover. He can run the read option at QB and is a threat on end-arounds to run or throw. I don't see anyone comparable to Pryor on the Jets.
I think you greatly undervalue the Cleveland WRs and overvalue what the Jets have. Hartline and Bowe are solid vets; Hartline was a good receiver for Miami until last season when throwing long to Mike Wallace didn't work. The Dolphins decided to throw shorter passes to Wallace, balls that previously were thrown to Hartline. This should not reflect badly on Brian. Hawkins and Gabriel had good years in 2014; Travis Benjamin has looked great in his second year back after an ACL injury in 2013 (4.25 speed); and I've already mentioned Pryor. This group is better than what the Jets have, especially since D. Smith is out. Marshall was obtained for a fifth-round draft pick and I believe the Jets also received a seventh-round pick. This shows the low value that the league placed on BM, hardly what a #1 wideout would bring. The Jets' offense will not scare the Cleveland defense or any DC. They have no home run threats, no trick play threats, an average OLine and are starting a backup QB.
Defense
> You are talking about Danny Shelton who got doubled and tripled against a Redskins o-line that looked poorly so far. In week one he will line up against Nick Mangold, a six-time Pro Bowl center, one of the best in the league and James Carpenter and Willie Colon next to him. How about that? This is completely different caliber compared to the Skins’ o-line.
The Browns have a very deep DLine with eight capable players. Colon and Carpenter are journeymen; Seattle, with its unsettled OLine, chose to let Carpenter walk as far as I know. Only Mangold rates better than average from PFF (which isn't infallible of course, but at least their ratings aren't just opinion and appear to be unbiased).
> “Losing SRich cancels out most or all of the gain with Revis” – are you serious ?? How can the absence of a d-liner, that got replaced by the best overall player in the draft by the way, cancel the gain Revis brings to this defense???
No way will Williams play like SRich in game one! Also, their DLine rotational depth will be hurt. This could easily be important in week one with temperatures predicted to be in the 80s, as rotating DLinemen will be essential or they will tire. Gaining a DB probowler and losing a DLine probowler has to be close to a wash. You appear to underestimate the importance of a probowl DLineman. One can make an argument that SRich is MORE important than Revis, because the offense can ignore Revis by throwing elsewhere or run a speed guy deep to take Revis out of the play and throw underneath, whereas it is more difficult to avoid a DLineman, especially with probowler Wilkerson on the other side and a good NT. Williams was drafted sixth so he is the presumptive sixth best player in the draft regardless of media hype. Your opinion is contradicted by the votes of five GMs.
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