[Quote: Originally Posted by theclaw] NFL WEEK 1 ..............................2017
We have 2 regression methods , neither has produced a losing record week 1.
Win Improvements........................................................
We fade Raiders, Giants and Cowboys, since the Giants and Boys play each other we fade the ATS winner in week 2.
We back Bengal, Zona and Panthers.
Bengals -3 over Ravens --- 5.5 units
Zona -1.5 over Lions --- 5.5 units
Panthers -5.5 over 9ers --- 5.5 units
Titans -1.5 over Raiders --- 5.5 units
TOP 2 MISMATCHES IN 3 REGRESSION METHODS..................
Win Improvements.......,,,,,,,,,,,,,top 2 .. 21-7 (75%) 2005-2016
All teams not just top 2 ---- 6-8 game difference --- 18-9 (66.7%)
SWEET SPOT - 9 game diff or better --- 15-2 ATS (88.2%)
Top 2 .... Bengals -3 over Ravens by 8.5 --- 5.5 units
Zona -1.5 over Lions by 7.5 --- 5.5 units
teams over 6..... Panthers by 6 over 9ers, Bears by 6 over Falcons
Expected Wins.......................top 2-- 17-8 ATS (68%) 2005-2016
All teams not just top 2.....2-2.8 diff ... 11-9 ATS
SWEET SPOT ---2.9 -3.9 --- 15-3 (83.3%)
4 or better --- 1-3 ATS
top 2, Jags +5.5 over Texans by 5.4 --- 5.5 unit
Browns +9 (-115) over Steelers by 3.6 --- 5.5 units
teams in the sweet spot of 2.9-3.9 , Zona by 3.2 over Lions
Close Wins .......................top 2 --- 16-12 ATS (57.1%) 2005-2016
all teams not just top 2 --- 4-7 game diff --- 24-21
SWEET SPOT ---8 or better --- 10-3 ATS (76.9)
Top 2--- Browns +9 (-115) over Steelers by 7 --- 5.75 units
Jags +5.5 over Texans by 7 --- 5.5 units
no teams over 8
Basically you can finish with a winning record in each method by backing these teams, if a team comes up twice then you need to back them twice, Jags and Browns come up twice in the TOP 2 MISMATCH METHOD so we need to back them twice .
TEAMS IN THE SWEET SPOT are Browns and Zona both between 2.9-3.9 in expected wins. The other 2 methods did not have a team in the sweet spot.
Little to no downside risk backing these 2 teams, at least a 1-1 record should be had with a great chance to go 2-0.
I'll be back with my Westgate Super Contest picks and Super Bowl winners- The year Before ............untill then best of luck ..........
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Son of a gun, the first method lost for the first time in the very many years I been using it. But hey, would have to lose eventually.
1-3 ATS, lost 11.5 units
However, we still have a fade on Dallas who covered VS Giants, both teams being fade teams and can get another win next week.
We back Broncos over Boys ---- 5.5 units.....waitout the line, we'll try for +3
The 2cd method...........................
Win improvements....0-2
Expected wins ......2-0
Close wins.............2-0
we went 4-2 ATS with this method had you as recommended backed Browns and Jags in both methods making 2 plays on them.
Just think, it was lowly Browns and Jags saved the day for us , that is why we ...stay the course with the info...............
4-2 ATS, won 11 units
OVERALL .......5-5 ATS, lost .5 units
We did not have the big start we hope for but hey, we did not get buried either, if the worst case is going to happen we go 5-5 and lose only a half unit , well, we can live with that.
We still have a great chance to finish with a winning record backing Broncos next week
I'll be away and will try to post but may not make it back so Broncos is our official play but let's see if we can get to +3 before we make the play.