Week 9 Plays:
Mia +3.5
Ten -4 (5 Dimes, CRIS or BetJM for -110)
Bal +1.5
Week 9 Comment:
My computer system has been doing quite well this season. Perhaps that is an understatement, but ATS it is hitting at 76% and went 4-1-1 ATS last weekend. All three plays from my Friday e-mail LAST Week were from my system and they went 2-0-1. This week, all three plays are also straight from my system.
I have a couple of additional plays on my radar and these will continue to be analyzed until Sunday morning. Good luck in your wagers this weekend!
Week 9 Writeups:
Mia+3.5
- Miami is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog when traveling to play vs. NFC or AFC West since 2002, though they did lose in Ari this season (but so did everyone this season, and Ari is 9-2 SU at home since 07)
- I have another trend that has had one losing season in the last 6 seasons, and is an underdog system in which the dogs have a propensity to win SU. It has gone 34-10-2 ATS since 2004 including 33-13 SU, and 21-6 SU and 22-5 ATS since 2006, and 10-2 SU and ATS in 2007.
- Denver is 1-12 ATS as home favorites on Sundays the last 3 seasons, failing to cover an by an average of 4 points.
- Underdogs of 3 to 5 points who have a worse record than favorites but are 2+ games better ATS than the favorite are 9-2 ATS since 2000 and also are 7-4 SU. On average, they have covered a 4 point line by 10 additional points and won SU by 6 points.
- After facing the Bills and being made an underdog, Miami is 5-2 ATS since 2003 and 4-3 SU. Their only ATS losses were to the 4-1 Bucs in 2005 and last year when they were 0-9 and traveled to Philly, losing by 10 on a +9.5 line.
- After beating the Bills, the Dolphins are 4-0 SU since 2001 and 3-1 ATS, winning both road games SU as an underdog.
- I have a very strong trend which is 18-3-1 ATS since 1994 and is 9-1 SU and ATS as a dog or a pickem.
- This trend looks at teams who are within 1 game of .500 who have just played in 2 home games and head out for one road game and then are back home for two home games. After winning that last home game and then heading for that one road game in over 5 weeks, they are 12-3 ATS as underdogs of 3+ points, and in fact, they are 10-5 SU since 1990. Since 1999, they are 8-1 SU and ATS, covering an average 4 point line by 12 points and winning SU by 8 points.
- Teams who lost by 17 or more prior to their bye and are favored the week after their bye are 8-21 ATS since 1990, including 1-2 ATS each of the last 2 seasons.
- Teams who lost on MNF by 7+ points and then had a bye were 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU as favorites the next week since 1998.
- Teams who lost on MNF by 14+ points and then had a bye were 0-3 SU and ATS in their next game since 1994, including 0-2 in 2007.
So when you look at Sunday afternoon, non-divisional games after a bye, you will find that Denver has not been a home favorite since 1998. Personally, I look at every situation and analyze each one differently. Lines are set based on perception and being made a road favorite vs. a home favorite is, indeed, a vastly different situation. Denver being made a -3 fav in Miami would instantly make people think something about the game which is different from Denver being made a -3 fav IN DENVER. A lot more needs to be proven from Denver's side than simply Shanahan's record after a bye, as impressive as it may be, considering they have not been home favorites on a Sunday afternoon (like they are this Sunday) since 1998, and their team, their abilities and their capability of winning and covering spreads has changed dramatically since then.
Based on my system as well as my research, as well as the fact that the AFC West is a dreadful 5-14 SU and 6-13 ATS in non-division competition this season (by far the worst in the NFL this season) and are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 (again, by far the worst in the NFL). So I will take the points and hope for the best when Miami travels to Sunny Denver, Colorado where gametime temps are currently predicted to be 74 degrees at kick and 67 degrees after 3 hours of play.