You don't open these threads to find someone telling you to take the Spurs ML over the Bucks.
You want a game you are not certain of and have someone else do the research for you.
This is a challenging one but the more I thought about reasons for a side, the more confident I felt in that side.
I have thought about this game all night and lied in wait for this line to move .5 point in our favor. If I got the number I wanted, I would cap it. Lo and behold, I woke up and the line moved in our favor (and why wouldn't it given what I am about to say and how the public bets) and now is the time to pounce.
Take the Lakers +6 over the Knicks today.
You want a write-up? I got a write-up.
1. I said it before too many times, and here it is again: you cannot underestimate the way these Knicks will play in these early start times at home.
I had a thread on the Knicks playing early games several times already and the situation has presented itself again.
Typically, the Knicks play at 7:30pm at the Garden. The celebrities are out are out and the Knicks come to play!
Don't believe me? The New York Times just did a feature on celebrity row at the Garden!
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/22/sports/basketball/knicks-have-a-star-magnet-courtside-seats.html?_r=0
Wow! Whoopi Goldberg, Ben Stiller and even Phil Collins everybody! Remember he sang the song "Take me home"?
Take that song as an omen and don't take the Knicks at home today.
So what is the point of mentioning celebrity row at MSG? Well celebs usually don't turn out in full force unless it's a night game and unless it's vs. a prime opponent. The Lakers at 3:30pm on a Lazy Sunday afternoon without Kobe this year is not a hot ticket.
Do the Knicks play poorly in early games because the celebs don't show up in droves? Is it because they partied hard the night before?
Is it because their body clocks are just used to night games at primetime in the Garden?
I say who the hell cares! All we care about it that they play like shi* at home in early games.
Here are the past results this year:
11/10/2013 12:00PM start Spurs 120 Knicks 89
12/08/2013 12:00PM start Celtics 114 Knicks 73 (this the Celtics we are talking about here!)
12/21/2013 12:00PM start Memphis 95 Knicks 87 (they got outrebounded 56 to 30 in this game and Gasol didn't even play!)
You'd think they'd have some pride on MLK day at home? Nah, you'd be wrong if you did. You'd think the new year would bring about a resolution to play better in these early games? Wrong again if you thought that.
Last game I posted was Nets -1.5 over the Knicks 1/20/2014
Nets 103
Knicks 80
Folks they don't just lose these early games, they get embarrassed in them.
Today the books do a hand wave to this fact. It's 4 games as a sample and the Knicks have lost by a combined 103 points over the 4 (25.7 ppg loss avg!). We have some relevant correlation
here folks.
Now, the Knicks are LAYING 6 in the same situation, against, ANYONE.
Yes, I will take the points thanks.
Take the Lakers. This line does not account for this early game situation and is a bargain.
If this is the ONLY thing you knew about this game, you could play the Lakers +6.
But there are MANY more reasons to play them.