Both make good points because Van is right...doesnt matter how good a pitcher is if the line is too high...but also value doesnt do you any good unless you win...I'm ready for the bases...here is for a successful year!
Both make good points because Van is right...doesnt matter how good a pitcher is if the line is too high...but also value doesnt do you any good unless you win...I'm ready for the bases...here is for a successful year!
Matchbook is still the best single option out there for bettting MLB, even with their new commission structure.
They have taken out the reasonable ability to sell back bets, so this season I will be holding a lot more of my original wagers and not selling them.
BTW - Dont know if you saw - but they announced today .6% commission on MLB accepts, and .1% rebate on offers.
Matchbook is still the best single option out there for bettting MLB, even with their new commission structure.
They have taken out the reasonable ability to sell back bets, so this season I will be holding a lot more of my original wagers and not selling them.
BTW - Dont know if you saw - but they announced today .6% commission on MLB accepts, and .1% rebate on offers.
GH - I heard you talking about this same subject on that radio show - which btw I think you did a great job on.
If anyone wants someone to tail during MLB - GH is the best documented MLB poster at covers for the last several years - no arguments.
Im going to attempt to give a short primer on coming up with lines....
GH - I heard you talking about this same subject on that radio show - which btw I think you did a great job on.
If anyone wants someone to tail during MLB - GH is the best documented MLB poster at covers for the last several years - no arguments.
Im going to attempt to give a short primer on coming up with lines....
Im going to attempt to give a short primer on coming up with lines....
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ill see what i can do to get a few of these info threads stickied in the mlb forum
Im going to attempt to give a short primer on coming up with lines....
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ill see what i can do to get a few of these info threads stickied in the mlb forum
This can be as simple as looking at tomorrows games, and using gut to come up with lines, or as complicated as coming up with statistical algorithms that produce a line. There is no right or wrong way to get there - but it should be judged against results for accuracy.
Personally, I use a combination of gut and stats. I have a fairly simple statistical model to come up with a percentage of a given game. I also use "gut" to come up with a line for every game - literally spending about 15 minutes total going game by game and spending a minute or two on each and coming up with a line.
I then take my statistical percentage and convert that to a line, and then combine my statistical line with my gut line.
Now that I have a line, I compare it to the real line. If I am 7 -15 cents away from the real line, I bet 1 unit. 16-25 cents away from the real line, I bet 2 units. More than 25 cents away and I thoroughly re-evaluate my line to see if there are errors, and then bet 2 units if it is still a play.
And it is very important to look backwards at results. Tweak your formulas and your gut based on results. As simple as it sounds - I think this is the critical flaw of most gamblers - once a game is over they move on and dont learn anything. Compare how close your line is to the real results - and come up with some kind of analysis that will help tweak your process.
This can be as simple as looking at tomorrows games, and using gut to come up with lines, or as complicated as coming up with statistical algorithms that produce a line. There is no right or wrong way to get there - but it should be judged against results for accuracy.
Personally, I use a combination of gut and stats. I have a fairly simple statistical model to come up with a percentage of a given game. I also use "gut" to come up with a line for every game - literally spending about 15 minutes total going game by game and spending a minute or two on each and coming up with a line.
I then take my statistical percentage and convert that to a line, and then combine my statistical line with my gut line.
Now that I have a line, I compare it to the real line. If I am 7 -15 cents away from the real line, I bet 1 unit. 16-25 cents away from the real line, I bet 2 units. More than 25 cents away and I thoroughly re-evaluate my line to see if there are errors, and then bet 2 units if it is still a play.
And it is very important to look backwards at results. Tweak your formulas and your gut based on results. As simple as it sounds - I think this is the critical flaw of most gamblers - once a game is over they move on and dont learn anything. Compare how close your line is to the real results - and come up with some kind of analysis that will help tweak your process.
FYI - this is how percentages break in to lines:
Line Favorite Dog
300 75% 25%
280 74% 26%
240 71% 29%
220 69% 31%
210 68% 32%
200 67% 33%
195 66% 34%
190 66% 34%
185 65% 35%
180 64% 36%
175 64% 36%
170 63% 37%
165 62% 38%
160 62% 38%
155 61% 39%
150 60% 40%
145 59% 41%
140 58% 42%
135 57% 43%
130 57% 43%
125 56% 44%
120 55% 45%
115 53% 47%
110 52% 48%
105 51% 49%
100 50% 50%
Everyone should memorize that table.
FYI - this is how percentages break in to lines:
Line Favorite Dog
300 75% 25%
280 74% 26%
240 71% 29%
220 69% 31%
210 68% 32%
200 67% 33%
195 66% 34%
190 66% 34%
185 65% 35%
180 64% 36%
175 64% 36%
170 63% 37%
165 62% 38%
160 62% 38%
155 61% 39%
150 60% 40%
145 59% 41%
140 58% 42%
135 57% 43%
130 57% 43%
125 56% 44%
120 55% 45%
115 53% 47%
110 52% 48%
105 51% 49%
100 50% 50%
Everyone should memorize that table.
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