Quote Originally Posted by WestHamUnited:
Try not being a sheep and making your own picks. Once you do this you will be able to then judge whether another persons picks are any good or not and use your instincts to determine whether or not to follow. Its hard to make money gambling you need to have some skin in the game and not just be a sheep.
Sheeps get led to slaughter.
Agree with this 100%. Here are a few other things I look for in other's picks/write ups/thoughts. But just for the record, I never straight tail or fade anyone, but might use someone else's perspective to back up my initial lean or thoughts
1) Ignore the homers. If someone starts off a write up with "I'm a huge fan of Team X" I basically ignore their entire write up, unless they have some breaking injury news or something. Betting with, or against your heart is never a good thing. Take the emotion out of it. That's not to say that some "fans" can't be objective about their team, but more times than not on this board, that is not the case, so be careful. You'll have to carefully follow the "fans" of certain teams to figure out who knows their $hit, and who is just trying to build up the team they love!
2) Be leery of write-up content in general. Anyone can take the numbers and what-not and spin a write-up to sound like they know what they are talking about. HeII, almost everyone is guilty of it at some point, myself included. Take things for what they are worth, and do your own research and due diligence when you are considering anyone's thoughts or analysis. People give wrong info on here all the time, most times in complete error, but still. I mean, how many times have you read a write-up where one of the main points is that Team X is 7-1 at home, and they game is at a neutral site? Mistakes happen, so always double check every angle you are looking at. Honestly, over-thinking things is another common mistake, and long drawn out write-ups that are just regurgitating info everyone has (including the BOOKS) can be ignored. That's not to say the info is wrong, or the pick won't win, but if you don't have anything really insightful to say, what's the point. I prefer a short write-up, maybe a sentence or two as to why I'm making a pick. I think a lot of posters are actually trying to convince THEMSELVES their pick is solid with a long write up, and not really looking at it objectively.
3) Watch games. Watch as many games as you can. Watch them live, on reruns, DVR, etc. If you are really new to it, maybe pick a few conferences that get coverage in your area and really focus there. But in all seriousness, the first 1-5 weeks, just watch games. By then, you should know about where the lines will be, and know the teams well enough to make an educated guess at the winner without pouring over stats and results.
4) Ignore anyone with GOY's or POY's, blah blah blah. Anyone on here just blabbling about "locks" and "easy money" are just looking for attention, and usually don't give a $hit about sharing winners or good info.
5) Ask questions. To yourself, and others. There are a lot of posters here that have specific knowledge of certain teams and players and that can be invaluable.
6) Usually a good idea to me to tread lightly on the smaller conferences and weaker teams. The more the talent level goes down, the more the variance goes up. There are still good angles sometimes with those games, but the quality of play is so poor sometimes, it's difficult to cap.
7) Don't cry about games/play calling/coaching/mistakes/whatever in the 1st half. Everyone loses. EVERYONE. Sometimes we lose on the last play, sometimes in the first quarter. I recommend briefly reanalyzing what went wrong, store that info for future reference and move on. If you are getting really upset when a game isn't going your way, you should definitely think about how much you are wagering per game, as it might be too high.
Anyway, sorry for the long post. You can take my advice and ignore it due to length if you want. I am typing a lot of it for my good, to remind myself of the basic rules I like to use. I'm certainly no expert on the matters, and in the world of gambling, things can be fluid at times, rules can be bent, and things change from week to week.
BOL everyone........really looking forward to getting this season underway and make some $$$$$.