You're not gonna make shiiitt trying to follow this. Unless you get the same number period. Buying points is only gonna kill you in the long run. Value already lost when the sharps move the line. Trust me I've learned the hard way. I've opened acts for the sharpest sharps in the world. The lines move instantly when it's played and the values gone. "this thread encourages methods to find line value on your own". That just a stupid statement. It's that easy huh. You better know how to run numbers with your super computer and algorithms.
Easy there bud. I think you're still missing the point. It's not about blindly trying to follow. It's about the process to arrive at plays on opening lines. Being prepared. Nobody said anything about buying points. And nobody said it's easy. But it can be done. If you don't think value exists beyond sharp initial plays, then why bet at all? And all of the plays listed in this thread are available at Betonline when they open at -110. BUT, you are correct that they don't last long.
You're not gonna make shiiitt trying to follow this. Unless you get the same number period. Buying points is only gonna kill you in the long run. Value already lost when the sharps move the line. Trust me I've learned the hard way. I've opened acts for the sharpest sharps in the world. The lines move instantly when it's played and the values gone. "this thread encourages methods to find line value on your own". That just a stupid statement. It's that easy huh. You better know how to run numbers with your super computer and algorithms.
Easy there bud. I think you're still missing the point. It's not about blindly trying to follow. It's about the process to arrive at plays on opening lines. Being prepared. Nobody said anything about buying points. And nobody said it's easy. But it can be done. If you don't think value exists beyond sharp initial plays, then why bet at all? And all of the plays listed in this thread are available at Betonline when they open at -110. BUT, you are correct that they don't last long.
By the way, happy Thanksgiving, BA. Sometimes i really like living in Dallas.
you too man thanks!......and BOL..... * I would hate living in Dallas much less than I do living in the mid-cities ha
I was checking out the HUGE effort / W....by Minn last week vs NW....season (kinda sorta)....sounded over ... *but wait.....one more on the road......Wisky just fartin' around L2 with Purdue and Illinois....needing a W...so I kinda like Wisky here......Minny tough on road and matches up well tho...
Wisky usually handles them OK....won L10 SU by 10+......maybe best to stay away.....or even to take Minny at 14'
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
By the way, happy Thanksgiving, BA. Sometimes i really like living in Dallas.
you too man thanks!......and BOL..... * I would hate living in Dallas much less than I do living in the mid-cities ha
I was checking out the HUGE effort / W....by Minn last week vs NW....season (kinda sorta)....sounded over ... *but wait.....one more on the road......Wisky just fartin' around L2 with Purdue and Illinois....needing a W...so I kinda like Wisky here......Minny tough on road and matches up well tho...
Wisky usually handles them OK....won L10 SU by 10+......maybe best to stay away.....or even to take Minny at 14'
Maybe Pesos. Post these plays the next time. A joke is someone who "claims" they are up when they are not
Haha no a joke is someone who goes through these forums every 5 minutes and tells people to do there own research WTF??? Like who has time to do that and wtf is the point of researching games BA is on he is money? I thought i outsmarted him a couple times and lost my behind. I post on a couple peoples threads plus do my own research? Ive been getting better as the season progresses because 1. Asking questions to intelligent people who have been capping this game for years 2. Doing research on my own/ cross referencing with legit cappers 3. Having the balls to the throw the cash and not look back. Urban I hit a 4 team parlay for 4k last weekend if you want the ticket I'm sure you will see this post in .01 seconds lol
Maybe Pesos. Post these plays the next time. A joke is someone who "claims" they are up when they are not
Haha no a joke is someone who goes through these forums every 5 minutes and tells people to do there own research WTF??? Like who has time to do that and wtf is the point of researching games BA is on he is money? I thought i outsmarted him a couple times and lost my behind. I post on a couple peoples threads plus do my own research? Ive been getting better as the season progresses because 1. Asking questions to intelligent people who have been capping this game for years 2. Doing research on my own/ cross referencing with legit cappers 3. Having the balls to the throw the cash and not look back. Urban I hit a 4 team parlay for 4k last weekend if you want the ticket I'm sure you will see this post in .01 seconds lol
Urban I'm 22 btw have a legit job in SF and I'm killing the bookie why you hating?
Not hating just stating a fact. The forum is about contributing and sharing information to help others as well as asking questions. The entire season you have made zero contributions but seem to think it is ok to ask 100 questions a week.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
Urban I'm 22 btw have a legit job in SF and I'm killing the bookie why you hating?
Not hating just stating a fact. The forum is about contributing and sharing information to help others as well as asking questions. The entire season you have made zero contributions but seem to think it is ok to ask 100 questions a week.
Haha no a joke is someone who goes through these forums every 5 minutes and tells people to do there own research WTF??? Like who has time to do that and wtf is the point of researching games BA is on he is money? I thought i outsmarted him a couple times and lost my behind. I post on a couple peoples threads plus do my own research? Ive been getting better as the season progresses because 1. Asking questions to intelligent people who have been capping this game for years 2. Doing research on my own/ cross referencing with legit cappers 3. Having the balls to the throw the cash and not look back. Urban I hit a 4 team parlay for 4k last weekend if you want the ticket I'm sure you will see this post in .01 seconds lol
Useless comments from a
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
Haha no a joke is someone who goes through these forums every 5 minutes and tells people to do there own research WTF??? Like who has time to do that and wtf is the point of researching games BA is on he is money? I thought i outsmarted him a couple times and lost my behind. I post on a couple peoples threads plus do my own research? Ive been getting better as the season progresses because 1. Asking questions to intelligent people who have been capping this game for years 2. Doing research on my own/ cross referencing with legit cappers 3. Having the balls to the throw the cash and not look back. Urban I hit a 4 team parlay for 4k last weekend if you want the ticket I'm sure you will see this post in .01 seconds lol
209 ARKANSAS ST -8' 8:00 p.m. 210 LOUISIANA * not adjusted
211 TENNESSEE -12 8:00 p.m. 212 VANDERBILT
213 MISSISSIPPI ST 8:00 p.m. 214 MISSISSIPPI -13
215 MICHIGAN 8:00 p.m. 216 OHIO STATE -8'
217 NOTRE DAME 8:30 p.m. 218 USC -14
219 SOUTH ALABAMA 9:00 p.m. 220 IDAHO -3
221 WYOMING 9:00 p.m. 222 NEW MEXICO P
223 COLORADO ST 9:00 p.m. CBSC 224 SAN DIEGO ST -15
225 UTAH ST 10:15 p.m. 226 BYU -17
227 MASSACHUSETTS 11:00 p.m. 228 HAWAII -8'
SUNDAY, Nov 27
251 SAN DIEGO 1:00 p.m. 252 HOUSTON
253 TENNESSEE 1:00 p.m. 254 CHICAGO
255 JACKSONVILLE 1:00 p.m. 256 BUFFALO
257 CINCINNATI 1:00 p.m. 258 BALTIMORE
259 ARIZONA 1:00 p.m. 260 ATLANTA
261 SAN FRANCISCO 1:00 p.m. 262 MIAMI
263 LOS ANGELES 1:00 p.m. 264 NEW ORLEANS
265 NY GIANTS 1:00 p.m. 266 CLEVELAND
267 SEATTLE 4:05 p.m. 268 TAMPA BAY
269 CAROLINA 4:25 p.m. 270 OAKLAND
271 KANSAS CITY 4:25 p.m. 272 DENVER
273 NEW ENGLAND 8:30 p.m. NBC 274 NY JETS
MONDAY, Nov 28
275 GREEN BAY 8:30 p.m. ESPN 276 PHILADELPHIA
I saw you liked Kentucky as a lean +26 (i can only get it at 25.5), but +15 1st half. Any input would be appreciated. Being from Louisville this is a huge game. Kentucky's slow start vs Austin Peay is what worries me about the 1st half play versus full game
209 ARKANSAS ST -8' 8:00 p.m. 210 LOUISIANA * not adjusted
211 TENNESSEE -12 8:00 p.m. 212 VANDERBILT
213 MISSISSIPPI ST 8:00 p.m. 214 MISSISSIPPI -13
215 MICHIGAN 8:00 p.m. 216 OHIO STATE -8'
217 NOTRE DAME 8:30 p.m. 218 USC -14
219 SOUTH ALABAMA 9:00 p.m. 220 IDAHO -3
221 WYOMING 9:00 p.m. 222 NEW MEXICO P
223 COLORADO ST 9:00 p.m. CBSC 224 SAN DIEGO ST -15
225 UTAH ST 10:15 p.m. 226 BYU -17
227 MASSACHUSETTS 11:00 p.m. 228 HAWAII -8'
SUNDAY, Nov 27
251 SAN DIEGO 1:00 p.m. 252 HOUSTON
253 TENNESSEE 1:00 p.m. 254 CHICAGO
255 JACKSONVILLE 1:00 p.m. 256 BUFFALO
257 CINCINNATI 1:00 p.m. 258 BALTIMORE
259 ARIZONA 1:00 p.m. 260 ATLANTA
261 SAN FRANCISCO 1:00 p.m. 262 MIAMI
263 LOS ANGELES 1:00 p.m. 264 NEW ORLEANS
265 NY GIANTS 1:00 p.m. 266 CLEVELAND
267 SEATTLE 4:05 p.m. 268 TAMPA BAY
269 CAROLINA 4:25 p.m. 270 OAKLAND
271 KANSAS CITY 4:25 p.m. 272 DENVER
273 NEW ENGLAND 8:30 p.m. NBC 274 NY JETS
MONDAY, Nov 28
275 GREEN BAY 8:30 p.m. ESPN 276 PHILADELPHIA
I saw you liked Kentucky as a lean +26 (i can only get it at 25.5), but +15 1st half. Any input would be appreciated. Being from Louisville this is a huge game. Kentucky's slow start vs Austin Peay is what worries me about the 1st half play versus full game
BA talk to me about USC. USC is deeper and playing well but it wont be an athletic mismatch. ND should be motivated against a big rival, and Keizer is capable enough at QB to score points. I believe Kelly is 2-1 at the collesium as well. Seems like too many points to lay but maybe I am missing something.
BA talk to me about USC. USC is deeper and playing well but it wont be an athletic mismatch. ND should be motivated against a big rival, and Keizer is capable enough at QB to score points. I believe Kelly is 2-1 at the collesium as well. Seems like too many points to lay but maybe I am missing something.
damn 20k last month, congrats... what's your standard wager?
I also took Texas, but unfortunately they still cant score in the red zone. .. I thought they would show up for Strong's last game, but was obviously wrong. I took under in the lsu game last night, I didnt think Trevor Knight, or Treyvon Williams were supposed to play but that game was going over regardless. I took LSU -6.5 in game so I still had a winning day, but not having a great day so far, well at least I wasnt, im starting to bounce back a little bit, with WMU/Toledo Over 34 2nd half, Iowa, T Tech, Tulsa/Cincy Over 62... That Air Force goal line stand really screwed my day up
damn 20k last month, congrats... what's your standard wager?
I also took Texas, but unfortunately they still cant score in the red zone. .. I thought they would show up for Strong's last game, but was obviously wrong. I took under in the lsu game last night, I didnt think Trevor Knight, or Treyvon Williams were supposed to play but that game was going over regardless. I took LSU -6.5 in game so I still had a winning day, but not having a great day so far, well at least I wasnt, im starting to bounce back a little bit, with WMU/Toledo Over 34 2nd half, Iowa, T Tech, Tulsa/Cincy Over 62... That Air Force goal line stand really screwed my day up
ORDINARILY......I would just figure .....you're just some lazy dumbshiit kinda guy.....but since most here don't know what's REALLY going on here I'm guessing .......I'll eggsplain
A. most don't move all that much.....I reckon each week there's less than 5 that are 'unplayable'....that leaves 7-10 plays for one to consider
B. SO....if all I did was post picks....you would be getting 5-10 SOLID picks each week....and maybe 3-4 later in the week
BUT.....
C. I tell you what the line 'should' be on FRIDAY or Sat morning....(A WEEK BEFORE THE DAMM GAMES HA).....THEN.....I come back and update these on Sunday morning....WITH NOTES AND LEANS...........telling you WHO I'm gonna play *SO.....here are MY PLAYS essentially......I don't really even need to post them do I..........WTF man...........
I might add one or two if I'm really surprised by a bad line....but if my leans offer line value I'll usually play them
note: as a few of you have figured out probably....my 'leans' often / usually......do better than my picks....as I'll back off if it's a bad number.....team still covers....usually not gonna recommend a bad number
eg. looking like a loser.....(got some back maybe in-game)
Tulsa was a lean > I told you they 'should be' favored by 21.........it opened at 16'.....(suggesting the line will go up / it closed at 22-23)..........THERE'S A PLAY......I don't need to SPOON FEED YOU.......any better than that do I ?.... note: IF you're Asian (and female).....I might come wipe your azz too
NOTE: with a few exceptions each week......I tell you WHICH WAY THE LINE IS GONNA GO....< this is valuable info *this year has been tougher than most note: the few that move the OTHER WAY.....many times are wrong anyway.....like Memphis / Hou.... (listed 3 / Tulsa as play > line went up).....movement was wrong
BUT....to be honest.....you guys (like my 'buddies') that sleep in on Sunday morning.....DO NO / little WORK.....pop in late in the week looking for picks with current odds.....ARE WAGERING IDIOTS * I don't mind helping cool idiots....but lazy / pain in the azz idiots?....>>> need to be sending me a whole lotta cash.....
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
ORDINARILY......I would just figure .....you're just some lazy dumbshiit kinda guy.....but since most here don't know what's REALLY going on here I'm guessing .......I'll eggsplain
A. most don't move all that much.....I reckon each week there's less than 5 that are 'unplayable'....that leaves 7-10 plays for one to consider
B. SO....if all I did was post picks....you would be getting 5-10 SOLID picks each week....and maybe 3-4 later in the week
BUT.....
C. I tell you what the line 'should' be on FRIDAY or Sat morning....(A WEEK BEFORE THE DAMM GAMES HA).....THEN.....I come back and update these on Sunday morning....WITH NOTES AND LEANS...........telling you WHO I'm gonna play *SO.....here are MY PLAYS essentially......I don't really even need to post them do I..........WTF man...........
I might add one or two if I'm really surprised by a bad line....but if my leans offer line value I'll usually play them
note: as a few of you have figured out probably....my 'leans' often / usually......do better than my picks....as I'll back off if it's a bad number.....team still covers....usually not gonna recommend a bad number
eg. looking like a loser.....(got some back maybe in-game)
Tulsa was a lean > I told you they 'should be' favored by 21.........it opened at 16'.....(suggesting the line will go up / it closed at 22-23)..........THERE'S A PLAY......I don't need to SPOON FEED YOU.......any better than that do I ?.... note: IF you're Asian (and female).....I might come wipe your azz too
NOTE: with a few exceptions each week......I tell you WHICH WAY THE LINE IS GONNA GO....< this is valuable info *this year has been tougher than most note: the few that move the OTHER WAY.....many times are wrong anyway.....like Memphis / Hou.... (listed 3 / Tulsa as play > line went up).....movement was wrong
BUT....to be honest.....you guys (like my 'buddies') that sleep in on Sunday morning.....DO NO / little WORK.....pop in late in the week looking for picks with current odds.....ARE WAGERING IDIOTS * I don't mind helping cool idiots....but lazy / pain in the azz idiots?....>>> need to be sending me a whole lotta cash.....
Forgot my own advice...... *just mentioned that AGAIN too....about the same time I was recommending Texas as a play.............
FOCUS........DURING THE WEEK OF PREPARATION....IS MOST IMPORTANT.....compared to being 'fired up'.....at game time *forgot who said it....somebody here posted ' "no way Horns are focused this week"......I thought.... oh crap he's right
SO.....although Texas no doubt REALLY wanted to win for Charlie / send him off a winner......their PRACTICES this week probably.....were USELESS......way too much going on *just showing up at game time > fired Up ready to kick some A .....wasn't enough.....vs a TCU team off a bad loss...that had GREAT practice time I'm guessing..........................
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
Forgot my own advice...... *just mentioned that AGAIN too....about the same time I was recommending Texas as a play.............
FOCUS........DURING THE WEEK OF PREPARATION....IS MOST IMPORTANT.....compared to being 'fired up'.....at game time *forgot who said it....somebody here posted ' "no way Horns are focused this week"......I thought.... oh crap he's right
SO.....although Texas no doubt REALLY wanted to win for Charlie / send him off a winner......their PRACTICES this week probably.....were USELESS......way too much going on *just showing up at game time > fired Up ready to kick some A .....wasn't enough.....vs a TCU team off a bad loss...that had GREAT practice time I'm guessing..........................
I saw you liked Kentucky as a lean +26 (i can only get it at 25.5), but +15 1st half. Any input would be appreciated. Being from Louisville this is a huge game. Kentucky's slow start vs Austin Peay is what worries me about the 1st half play versus full game
don't worry about those Governors rakeman................. *a good sign maybe......looking ahead to Louisville no doubt
Just think they can compete....I'm not one that feels Louisville is unbeatable......consider > *Duke....Virginia...Wake (mostly) were able to play with 'em.....Houston beat the crap outta them...believe they have beaten.....2 teams with a winning record ????? *Kentucky?......beat S Carolina....beat Mizzou...lost by 3 at Georgia...beat Vandy and Miss St.......gonna get blown out by Louisville ?......
NOW.....no play-offs.....no Heisman ? (shouldn't).....facing a confident Kentucky.....that has one of the nation's best D's at defending the BIG PLAY * #8 vs explosive plays....#10 on early downs / #29 late downs....#22 vs run / #34 vs pass (all vs big plays) note: Louisville tough in all areas....except making big plays on passing downs (#111) > UK D #29
Kentucky O #9 running game.....but struggle with short efficient passes.....can make big plays running (#18) and passing (#10)......early (#25).....and late (#9) downs *UL D not many weaknesses at all tho
Just looks like 25+ is too many.....tough to judge the mindset of Louisville.....since I think they'll be ready....small play only for me..............
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
I saw you liked Kentucky as a lean +26 (i can only get it at 25.5), but +15 1st half. Any input would be appreciated. Being from Louisville this is a huge game. Kentucky's slow start vs Austin Peay is what worries me about the 1st half play versus full game
don't worry about those Governors rakeman................. *a good sign maybe......looking ahead to Louisville no doubt
Just think they can compete....I'm not one that feels Louisville is unbeatable......consider > *Duke....Virginia...Wake (mostly) were able to play with 'em.....Houston beat the crap outta them...believe they have beaten.....2 teams with a winning record ????? *Kentucky?......beat S Carolina....beat Mizzou...lost by 3 at Georgia...beat Vandy and Miss St.......gonna get blown out by Louisville ?......
NOW.....no play-offs.....no Heisman ? (shouldn't).....facing a confident Kentucky.....that has one of the nation's best D's at defending the BIG PLAY * #8 vs explosive plays....#10 on early downs / #29 late downs....#22 vs run / #34 vs pass (all vs big plays) note: Louisville tough in all areas....except making big plays on passing downs (#111) > UK D #29
Kentucky O #9 running game.....but struggle with short efficient passes.....can make big plays running (#18) and passing (#10)......early (#25).....and late (#9) downs *UL D not many weaknesses at all tho
Just looks like 25+ is too many.....tough to judge the mindset of Louisville.....since I think they'll be ready....small play only for me..............
BA talk to me about USC. USC is deeper and playing well but it wont be an athletic mismatch. ND should be motivated against a big rival, and Keizer is capable enough at QB to score points. I believe Kelly is 2-1 at the collesium as well. Seems like too many points to lay but maybe I am missing something.
YES......you are......................
USC is one of the best teams in the nation.....the Irish stink
Take a glance at ND's schedule,,,,,who did they compete well against.....lately.........Army?...Canes were in a bad way then (ND off bye)....Syracuse?.....turns out they're terrible *blew a nice lead at home to VT....lost to Navy....NC St...4-7 Duke...3-8 Sparty.....now you trust them at USC vs one of....if not THE hottest team in the country....??......besides Temple ha
I didn't do a full match-up analysis....I had this one circled a few back....and determined I would play it at 17 or less....regardless *could be wrong you bet....I think this is a big statement game for USC.....while Irish CANNOT WAIT....for the season to end...IMO
BOL this weekend buddy..............
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
BA talk to me about USC. USC is deeper and playing well but it wont be an athletic mismatch. ND should be motivated against a big rival, and Keizer is capable enough at QB to score points. I believe Kelly is 2-1 at the collesium as well. Seems like too many points to lay but maybe I am missing something.
YES......you are......................
USC is one of the best teams in the nation.....the Irish stink
Take a glance at ND's schedule,,,,,who did they compete well against.....lately.........Army?...Canes were in a bad way then (ND off bye)....Syracuse?.....turns out they're terrible *blew a nice lead at home to VT....lost to Navy....NC St...4-7 Duke...3-8 Sparty.....now you trust them at USC vs one of....if not THE hottest team in the country....??......besides Temple ha
I didn't do a full match-up analysis....I had this one circled a few back....and determined I would play it at 17 or less....regardless *could be wrong you bet....I think this is a big statement game for USC.....while Irish CANNOT WAIT....for the season to end...IMO
damn 20k last month, congrats... what's your standard wager?
I also took Texas, but unfortunately they still cant score in the red zone. .. I thought they would show up for Strong's last game, but was obviously wrong. I took under in the lsu game last night, I didnt think Trevor Knight, or Treyvon Williams were supposed to play but that game was going over regardless. I took LSU -6.5 in game so I still had a winning day, but not having a great day so far, well at least I wasnt, im starting to bounce back a little bit, with WMU/Toledo Over 34 2nd half, Iowa, T Tech, Tulsa/Cincy Over 62... That Air Force goal line stand really screwed my day up
fine work you do here AL......read all your stuff.....post whatever you want here buddy ..............
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
damn 20k last month, congrats... what's your standard wager?
I also took Texas, but unfortunately they still cant score in the red zone. .. I thought they would show up for Strong's last game, but was obviously wrong. I took under in the lsu game last night, I didnt think Trevor Knight, or Treyvon Williams were supposed to play but that game was going over regardless. I took LSU -6.5 in game so I still had a winning day, but not having a great day so far, well at least I wasnt, im starting to bounce back a little bit, with WMU/Toledo Over 34 2nd half, Iowa, T Tech, Tulsa/Cincy Over 62... That Air Force goal line stand really screwed my day up
fine work you do here AL......read all your stuff.....post whatever you want here buddy ..............
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