Doc, thought I started the season 3-0 on day 1, but NDSU couldn't get off the field on 4th & 10 with 3 minutes left in the game up 17-10. 2-1 and +1.18 units still a great way to start the year. Under was a solid play! Hope you grabbed it rather than the side. NDSU O-line couldn't get going early. Suspended Center maybe more of a factor than most realized.
Been meaning to comment on NMSU. The old man spent a season in Las Cruces so I can't help but view NMSU as a really, really tough job that's nearly impossible to sustain any positive movement in the right direction long term. Personally I will rarely back NMSU and really look for spots to fade them. Although I will say that HC Martin has done a great job and if there were a time to back them, it's probably early in the year before the O-line/D-line depth and really overall depth takes a toll as they get physically beat up by superior opponents. I thought about taking UTEP way back in May, but never did pull the string on them (around -3 / -3.5). Thought about it again last week, but the best I could find was -7.5, so I passed. Before RB Rose was downgraded I did see three solid guys on this site were backing/leaning toward NMSU. I definitely lean the other way, but I do respect the input of those three. UTEP new DC Coach Mase (Dad's DC at UNI one year) will likely play more of a Bend-Don't Break style to limit big plays given the talent level available to him at UTEP. Per Connelly, Hawaii was 93.9% Bend-Don't Break in 2015, while UTEP was only 4.7%. Hope that's right or this spreadsheet needs some tweaking.
Ready for team totals & 1st half stuff to be posted for a few Thursday games. Like App State TT Under and WKU TT Under as well (unpopular thought on this site) and will also consider Rice / WKU Under 31.5 or so for 1st half (again, probably against the masses). Probably a 0.75u play on App State and 0.5u on the other two.
Doc, thought I started the season 3-0 on day 1, but NDSU couldn't get off the field on 4th & 10 with 3 minutes left in the game up 17-10. 2-1 and +1.18 units still a great way to start the year. Under was a solid play! Hope you grabbed it rather than the side. NDSU O-line couldn't get going early. Suspended Center maybe more of a factor than most realized.
Been meaning to comment on NMSU. The old man spent a season in Las Cruces so I can't help but view NMSU as a really, really tough job that's nearly impossible to sustain any positive movement in the right direction long term. Personally I will rarely back NMSU and really look for spots to fade them. Although I will say that HC Martin has done a great job and if there were a time to back them, it's probably early in the year before the O-line/D-line depth and really overall depth takes a toll as they get physically beat up by superior opponents. I thought about taking UTEP way back in May, but never did pull the string on them (around -3 / -3.5). Thought about it again last week, but the best I could find was -7.5, so I passed. Before RB Rose was downgraded I did see three solid guys on this site were backing/leaning toward NMSU. I definitely lean the other way, but I do respect the input of those three. UTEP new DC Coach Mase (Dad's DC at UNI one year) will likely play more of a Bend-Don't Break style to limit big plays given the talent level available to him at UTEP. Per Connelly, Hawaii was 93.9% Bend-Don't Break in 2015, while UTEP was only 4.7%. Hope that's right or this spreadsheet needs some tweaking.
Ready for team totals & 1st half stuff to be posted for a few Thursday games. Like App State TT Under and WKU TT Under as well (unpopular thought on this site) and will also consider Rice / WKU Under 31.5 or so for 1st half (again, probably against the masses). Probably a 0.75u play on App State and 0.5u on the other two.
Will start with just the top 55 for tonight since I'm still tweaking some of the non-power 5 teams to consistently incorporate a talent factor for all 128 teams. Teams 5-11 really tough and close together. Will likely see some adjustments in September. Remember, these are baseline #s. Impossible to achieve one size fits all with one set of #s. Always look at the Matchup & Situational aspects of a game and adjust.
Will start with just the top 55 for tonight since I'm still tweaking some of the non-power 5 teams to consistently incorporate a talent factor for all 128 teams. Teams 5-11 really tough and close together. Will likely see some adjustments in September. Remember, these are baseline #s. Impossible to achieve one size fits all with one set of #s. Always look at the Matchup & Situational aspects of a game and adjust.
+28.5 would be nice but I'm mostly seeing 27.5 now. I'd drop down the units to 1 or 1.5u with +28 or better. Heck, I'm even tempted to try and middle a small amount at -27.5 since I bet this game back in May. Will hold off on that thought and see what in-game / 2nd half brings.
Idaho is up to -10.5 on 5dimes. -9.5 / -10 is about right. Montana State will be improved on defense and worse on offense (a lot of O-linemen graduated - FBS vs. FCS cappers often overlook the linemen). Anyway, Masseyratings total is like 81 (going from memory). If/when 5D posts a similar total, may be a play there on the Under. Any line value on Idaho appears gone for the moment. Will see what Sat am brings for FBS vs. FCS.
+28.5 would be nice but I'm mostly seeing 27.5 now. I'd drop down the units to 1 or 1.5u with +28 or better. Heck, I'm even tempted to try and middle a small amount at -27.5 since I bet this game back in May. Will hold off on that thought and see what in-game / 2nd half brings.
Idaho is up to -10.5 on 5dimes. -9.5 / -10 is about right. Montana State will be improved on defense and worse on offense (a lot of O-linemen graduated - FBS vs. FCS cappers often overlook the linemen). Anyway, Masseyratings total is like 81 (going from memory). If/when 5D posts a similar total, may be a play there on the Under. Any line value on Idaho appears gone for the moment. Will see what Sat am brings for FBS vs. FCS.
I'll say yes to NC A&T but no to JMU now -30 (9 points of line movement -- pretty impressive).
Regarding Northwestern State +47.... I'd say for sure if +49 or better. True line value is somewhere between 39 and 43 in my opinion, so if I had to pick a side I'd say go for it for a small play. Offshore limits will keep it small anyway.
I'll say yes to NC A&T but no to JMU now -30 (9 points of line movement -- pretty impressive).
Regarding Northwestern State +47.... I'd say for sure if +49 or better. True line value is somewhere between 39 and 43 in my opinion, so if I had to pick a side I'd say go for it for a small play. Offshore limits will keep it small anyway.
I'll be saving your PPR at least for 2 or 3 weeks. Of coarse in 3 weeks many will be different. Wish I knew who will change.
I had to dump NMSU on my plays. Way to much negative in that game.
I've always liked @UConn -27.5 Maine. Lots of pts. for a UCONN team but they seem to be trending up. Still have something on the defense this year. Offense will improve. Looks to me like they can score every possession. Just can't see a FCS cover here. Maine looks weak every where in comparison. I'll be surprised if UCONN doesn't easily get into the 40's in the 3rd quarter. Final score around 45-7 sounds likely to me. Only chance of loss is turnovers or special teams and both should be in UCONN's favor.
Glad you and Verne are around. Love getting feedback from guys who follow the other side of NCAAF. Let's just keep this goldmine between the few.
I'll be saving your PPR at least for 2 or 3 weeks. Of coarse in 3 weeks many will be different. Wish I knew who will change.
I had to dump NMSU on my plays. Way to much negative in that game.
I've always liked @UConn -27.5 Maine. Lots of pts. for a UCONN team but they seem to be trending up. Still have something on the defense this year. Offense will improve. Looks to me like they can score every possession. Just can't see a FCS cover here. Maine looks weak every where in comparison. I'll be surprised if UCONN doesn't easily get into the 40's in the 3rd quarter. Final score around 45-7 sounds likely to me. Only chance of loss is turnovers or special teams and both should be in UCONN's favor.
Glad you and Verne are around. Love getting feedback from guys who follow the other side of NCAAF. Let's just keep this goldmine between the few.
Will start with just the top 55 for tonight since I'm still tweaking some of the non-power 5 teams to consistently incorporate a talent factor for all 128 teams. Teams 5-11 really tough and close together. Will likely see some adjustments in September. Remember, these are baseline #s. Impossible to achieve one size fits all with one set of #s. Always look at the Matchup & Situational aspects of a game and adjust.
1. Alabama 97.0
T2. LSU 94.2
T2. Clemson 94.2
4. Florida State 90.0
5. Tennessee 89.2
6. Michigan 88.9
7. Oklahoma 88.7
T8. Ohio State 88.4
T8. Stanford 88.4
10. Mississippi 87.5
11. Washington 86.8
12. TCU 85.7
13. USC 85.6
14. Notre Dame 85.0
15. Louisville 84.5
16. Michigan State 83.7
17. Georgia 83.3
18. UCLA 82.5
19. Texas A&M 82.4
20. Texas 82.2
T21. Oklahoma State 82.0
T21. Oregon. 82.0
23. Iowa 81.8
24. Arkansas 81.7
25. Houston 81.5
26. Florida 81.4
T27. North Carolina 80.1
T27. Baylor 80.1
29. Auburn 79.6
30. Mississippi State 79.2
31. Wisconsin 79.1
T32. Penn State 78.7
T32. Boise State. 78.7
34. Nebraska 78.7
35. Virginia Tech 78.3
36. Washington State 78.2
37. Pittsburgh 77.9
38. Utah 77.8
39. BYU 77.2
40. Miami 77.0
41. San Diego State. 76.5
42. South Florida 76.4
43. Arizona State 76.0
44. Northwestern 75.2
45. Minnesota 74.5
46. Texas Tech 74.3
47. West Virginia 73.7
48. Missouri 73.0
T49. Arizona 72.8
T49. Marshall 72.8
T51. Kansas State 72.7
T51. Indiana 72.7
53. Colorado 71.5
T54. Toledo 71.1
T54. Georgia Tech 71.1
TD
Thank you for posting these
FANTASTIC TO SEE a respected Brothers #'s
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
Will start with just the top 55 for tonight since I'm still tweaking some of the non-power 5 teams to consistently incorporate a talent factor for all 128 teams. Teams 5-11 really tough and close together. Will likely see some adjustments in September. Remember, these are baseline #s. Impossible to achieve one size fits all with one set of #s. Always look at the Matchup & Situational aspects of a game and adjust.
how much did you have on USF to start with >>>?????
SOME OF THE TOTALS COULD BE REAL JUICY = PAYING -120 IS NO BIG DEAL WHEN U WIN
DoubleUp, no $ on USF. Always liked Towson here at the right number, but 5D opened at only +25.5 (Massey +30.5 -- pretty impressed really that they moved it that much on their own).
I did comment on this game in a couple of threads.... At least one was yours for Biggest Public plays. LOL. I posted when the line hit +28, said it would continue up. If you're locked in at -27.5 or better then maybe we'll both hit.
The other thread a guy said USF would score 65 and I politely said Towson is not that much of a doormat.
My #s have the line at about 26.5. Baseline #s: USF 76.4 and Towson 52.8.
And indeed juicy on the 5D FBS vs. FCS stuff, but don't mind when the line value is there.
how much did you have on USF to start with >>>?????
SOME OF THE TOTALS COULD BE REAL JUICY = PAYING -120 IS NO BIG DEAL WHEN U WIN
DoubleUp, no $ on USF. Always liked Towson here at the right number, but 5D opened at only +25.5 (Massey +30.5 -- pretty impressed really that they moved it that much on their own).
I did comment on this game in a couple of threads.... At least one was yours for Biggest Public plays. LOL. I posted when the line hit +28, said it would continue up. If you're locked in at -27.5 or better then maybe we'll both hit.
The other thread a guy said USF would score 65 and I politely said Towson is not that much of a doormat.
My #s have the line at about 26.5. Baseline #s: USF 76.4 and Towson 52.8.
And indeed juicy on the 5D FBS vs. FCS stuff, but don't mind when the line value is there.
1.5 units on florida atlantic -8?and 1 unit on iowa now at -27?
I'd still consider FAU at -8, but more like 0.5u to 0.75u. They've had a couple key injuries; starting OT Bain was all-conf and starting DT also out.
I would not play Iowa -27. I was just saying that since I'm locked in on Miami OH +31.5 for 3u and my next largest play is 2u, it was tempting in my case to maybe reduce it to 2.5 units with a chance to middle. Reduce risk a little. I didn't end up doing it, but it was an idea. Not a whole lot of value on the board now since many of these lines have been pushed around for months. ...... Unless you're willing to look into some FCS teams with lines moving. More value now than ever in Southern Utah, Tenn-Martin, Colgate, W&M, etc. I'm not playing those games, but they're practically daring you to take those types of teams.
1.5 units on florida atlantic -8?and 1 unit on iowa now at -27?
I'd still consider FAU at -8, but more like 0.5u to 0.75u. They've had a couple key injuries; starting OT Bain was all-conf and starting DT also out.
I would not play Iowa -27. I was just saying that since I'm locked in on Miami OH +31.5 for 3u and my next largest play is 2u, it was tempting in my case to maybe reduce it to 2.5 units with a chance to middle. Reduce risk a little. I didn't end up doing it, but it was an idea. Not a whole lot of value on the board now since many of these lines have been pushed around for months. ...... Unless you're willing to look into some FCS teams with lines moving. More value now than ever in Southern Utah, Tenn-Martin, Colgate, W&M, etc. I'm not playing those games, but they're practically daring you to take those types of teams.
DoubleUp, no $ on USF. Always liked Towson here at the right number, but 5D opened at only +25.5 (Massey +30.5 -- pretty impressed really that they moved it that much on their own).
I did comment on this game in a couple of threads.... At least one was yours for Biggest Public plays. LOL. I posted when the line hit +28, said it would continue up. If you're locked in at -27.5 or better then maybe we'll both hit.
The other thread a guy said USF would score 65 and I politely said Towson is not that much of a doormat.
My #s have the line at about 26.5. Baseline #s: USF 76.4 and Towson 52.8.
And indeed juicy on the 5D FBS vs. FCS stuff, but don't mind when the line value is there.
TD
THANK YOU BROTHER ''
I SUFFER FROM SHORT TERM MEMORY LOSS
Towson is NO doormat , My Numbers are just very high on USF entering this season
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
DoubleUp, no $ on USF. Always liked Towson here at the right number, but 5D opened at only +25.5 (Massey +30.5 -- pretty impressed really that they moved it that much on their own).
I did comment on this game in a couple of threads.... At least one was yours for Biggest Public plays. LOL. I posted when the line hit +28, said it would continue up. If you're locked in at -27.5 or better then maybe we'll both hit.
The other thread a guy said USF would score 65 and I politely said Towson is not that much of a doormat.
My #s have the line at about 26.5. Baseline #s: USF 76.4 and Towson 52.8.
And indeed juicy on the 5D FBS vs. FCS stuff, but don't mind when the line value is there.
TD
THANK YOU BROTHER ''
I SUFFER FROM SHORT TERM MEMORY LOSS
Towson is NO doormat , My Numbers are just very high on USF entering this season
TD, I'm with Double in liking USF this year but Towson is very tempting. Not sure about depth but looks like they return some quality off a decent team. Just wondering about this 4 star QB. Is this guy a problem child or does he not like rainy weather? Mahalak? I could and may just Google him but wanted to bump you up so I can find you if there are any TT's you like today.
TD, I'm with Double in liking USF this year but Towson is very tempting. Not sure about depth but looks like they return some quality off a decent team. Just wondering about this 4 star QB. Is this guy a problem child or does he not like rainy weather? Mahalak? I could and may just Google him but wanted to bump you up so I can find you if there are any TT's you like today.
Hit submit early on accident. Was going to say Mahalak only played 1 year at QB in HS. Probably not a true 4-star talent and was told he was at least 3rd on the depth chart.
Hit submit early on accident. Was going to say Mahalak only played 1 year at QB in HS. Probably not a true 4-star talent and was told he was at least 3rd on the depth chart.
TD, Yeh, I Googled him (Mahalak) and I guess we saw the same thing. Those stats his Sr. year wouldn't ... that was just pedestrian compared to the High School QB's around here. Against some of the best in the nation competition
I know you know what I'm talking about but some may jump in here saying stupid stuff about how good their H.S. teams are. They usually do.
Only worked his way to Scout team after 2 years and that was with injuries to 2 starters? Then gets a big hug from his coach as he's leaving. Kinda sounds like a don't let the door hit you in azz goodbye. Love ya but we really love you freeing up that scholarship.
I hope you cover and with those pts. you probably will but glad we dug a little deeper in to this. I'm out.
I decided to take Tulane -13.5 because any decent team can get 2 TD's these days. Next thing I know its -14. I'm taking it at -14 because it reminds me of a NDSU game last week which I'm already sorry I mentioned. That had to be brutal. Hope you didn't kick the dog or throw something valuable. Hey?? You know it'll happen again before the season is over. Of course your gonna win several of those games.
Got App. St. -19 underlined and leaning Oreg St. u21.5 and Charlotte u10.
TD, Yeh, I Googled him (Mahalak) and I guess we saw the same thing. Those stats his Sr. year wouldn't ... that was just pedestrian compared to the High School QB's around here. Against some of the best in the nation competition
I know you know what I'm talking about but some may jump in here saying stupid stuff about how good their H.S. teams are. They usually do.
Only worked his way to Scout team after 2 years and that was with injuries to 2 starters? Then gets a big hug from his coach as he's leaving. Kinda sounds like a don't let the door hit you in azz goodbye. Love ya but we really love you freeing up that scholarship.
I hope you cover and with those pts. you probably will but glad we dug a little deeper in to this. I'm out.
I decided to take Tulane -13.5 because any decent team can get 2 TD's these days. Next thing I know its -14. I'm taking it at -14 because it reminds me of a NDSU game last week which I'm already sorry I mentioned. That had to be brutal. Hope you didn't kick the dog or throw something valuable. Hey?? You know it'll happen again before the season is over. Of course your gonna win several of those games.
Got App. St. -19 underlined and leaning Oreg St. u21.5 and Charlotte u10.
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