THANK YOU FOR YOUR POST
With that, I'm definitely taking notes on what has happenned here in the "betting" world on this game. Believe me, I've been open-minded to your ideas and opinions. I DEFINITELY didn't believe in a "system" to always play AGAINST the public.
I've read into David's forum topic of it and personally, NOT ME to try and set up a system of ALWAYS betting against the public and "squares".
Can sumbody like LawDog see sumthing like this spread of -4 for the #1 team in the nation, against a team that has struggled to MEET EXPECTATIONS and have learned his lesson before? And say to himself, "Stay away!"
Betting can, and should be a learning experience. MUCH LIKE LIFE. If I see a line that is "too good to be true", I'm sure I will at least look DEEPER than I did for this game.
I looked at that line and said, "I usually post big write-ups of bets that I really think are good" (sumthing like that, not really an exact quote, but I've definitely said that about this game). I figured it was "over-thinking" to dig too deep into this "unbelievable" line.
I'm sure I'll AT LEAST think before I start "putting my finger on the trigger of my mouse" for when the line immediately comes out.
One thing that stuck out to me today, and I know that the game is getting closer than it was,....but I noticed that there was ONE sportsbook that KEPT a -3.5 line that ended up getting POSITIVE "juice" or what ever it is. I swear I saw a -3.5 (+130 sumthing) on the board in Covers.com.
NOW, I COULD DEFINITELY UNDERSTAND ONE BOOK ACCEPTING A BIG BET FROM A "SHARP" AND HAVING TO WILLINGLY CHASE TO COVER THE OTHERSIDE OF THE BET.
Hence a -3.5 (+130 sumthing).....(UNBELIEVEABLE TO THE "PUBLIC", hence ALOT of money coming in on it)
All the other sportsbooks were moving to 5, then 6, sum 6.5.
THE ONLY THING THAT I WON'T UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME IS,.....The big "sharps" may put ALOT of money on one side, BUT what does that mean?
DO THEY WIN ALL THE TIME? Do they know something that we don't? What happens to all the other sportsbooks? (I know the answer to that one,...I saw what happened to them,...they were "normal")
The other books were being businesses and keeping the money coming in even on both sides.
Even the book that had a BIG "sharp" bet, they did what they had to do to try and get money to come in on the other side,...REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME.
WHAT DOES EVERYONE THINK HERE?
I LOVE PHILOSOPHIZING. THAT'S WHAT "OPEN-MINDEDNESS" IS.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR POST
With that, I'm definitely taking notes on what has happenned here in the "betting" world on this game. Believe me, I've been open-minded to your ideas and opinions. I DEFINITELY didn't believe in a "system" to always play AGAINST the public.
I've read into David's forum topic of it and personally, NOT ME to try and set up a system of ALWAYS betting against the public and "squares".
Can sumbody like LawDog see sumthing like this spread of -4 for the #1 team in the nation, against a team that has struggled to MEET EXPECTATIONS and have learned his lesson before? And say to himself, "Stay away!"
Betting can, and should be a learning experience. MUCH LIKE LIFE. If I see a line that is "too good to be true", I'm sure I will at least look DEEPER than I did for this game.
I looked at that line and said, "I usually post big write-ups of bets that I really think are good" (sumthing like that, not really an exact quote, but I've definitely said that about this game). I figured it was "over-thinking" to dig too deep into this "unbelievable" line.
I'm sure I'll AT LEAST think before I start "putting my finger on the trigger of my mouse" for when the line immediately comes out.
One thing that stuck out to me today, and I know that the game is getting closer than it was,....but I noticed that there was ONE sportsbook that KEPT a -3.5 line that ended up getting POSITIVE "juice" or what ever it is. I swear I saw a -3.5 (+130 sumthing) on the board in Covers.com.
NOW, I COULD DEFINITELY UNDERSTAND ONE BOOK ACCEPTING A BIG BET FROM A "SHARP" AND HAVING TO WILLINGLY CHASE TO COVER THE OTHERSIDE OF THE BET.
Hence a -3.5 (+130 sumthing).....(UNBELIEVEABLE TO THE "PUBLIC", hence ALOT of money coming in on it)
All the other sportsbooks were moving to 5, then 6, sum 6.5.
THE ONLY THING THAT I WON'T UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME IS,.....The big "sharps" may put ALOT of money on one side, BUT what does that mean?
DO THEY WIN ALL THE TIME? Do they know something that we don't? What happens to all the other sportsbooks? (I know the answer to that one,...I saw what happened to them,...they were "normal")
The other books were being businesses and keeping the money coming in even on both sides.
Even the book that had a BIG "sharp" bet, they did what they had to do to try and get money to come in on the other side,...REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME.
WHAT DOES EVERYONE THINK HERE?
I LOVE PHILOSOPHIZING. THAT'S WHAT "OPEN-MINDEDNESS" IS.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR POST
With that, I'm definitely taking notes on what has happenned here in the "betting" world on this game. Believe me, I've been open-minded to your ideas and opinions. I DEFINITELY didn't believe in a "system" to always play AGAINST the public.
I've read into David's forum topic of it and personally, NOT ME to try and set up a system of ALWAYS betting against the public and "squares".
Can sumbody like LawDog see sumthing like this spread of -4 for the #1 team in the nation, against a team that has struggled to MEET EXPECTATIONS and have learned his lesson before? And say to himself, "Stay away!"
Betting can, and should be a learning experience. MUCH LIKE LIFE. If I see a line that is "too good to be true", I'm sure I will at least look DEEPER than I did for this game.
I looked at that line and said, "I usually post big write-ups of bets that I really think are good" (sumthing like that, not really an exact quote, but I've definitely said that about this game). I figured it was "over-thinking" to dig too deep into this "unbelievable" line.
I'm sure I'll AT LEAST think before I start "putting my finger on the trigger of my mouse" for when the line immediately comes out.
One thing that stuck out to me today, and I know that the game is getting closer than it was,....but I noticed that there was ONE sportsbook that KEPT a -3.5 line that ended up getting POSITIVE "juice" or what ever it is. I swear I saw a -3.5 (+130 sumthing) on the board in Covers.com.
NOW, I COULD DEFINITELY UNDERSTAND ONE BOOK ACCEPTING A BIG BET FROM A "SHARP" AND HAVING TO WILLINGLY CHASE TO COVER THE OTHERSIDE OF THE BET.
Hence a -3.5 (+130 sumthing).....(UNBELIEVEABLE TO THE "PUBLIC", hence ALOT of money coming in on it)
All the other sportsbooks were moving to 5, then 6, sum 6.5.
THE ONLY THING THAT I WON'T UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME IS,.....The big "sharps" may put ALOT of money on one side, BUT what does that mean?
DO THEY WIN ALL THE TIME? Do they know something that we don't? What happens to all the other sportsbooks? (I know the answer to that one,...I saw what happened to them,...they were "normal")
The other books were being businesses and keeping the money coming in even on both sides.
Even the book that had a BIG "sharp" bet, they did what they had to do to try and get money to come in on the other side,...REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME.
WHAT DOES EVERYONE THINK HERE?
I LOVE PHILOSOPHIZING. THAT'S WHAT "OPEN-MINDEDNESS" IS.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR POST
With that, I'm definitely taking notes on what has happenned here in the "betting" world on this game. Believe me, I've been open-minded to your ideas and opinions. I DEFINITELY didn't believe in a "system" to always play AGAINST the public.
I've read into David's forum topic of it and personally, NOT ME to try and set up a system of ALWAYS betting against the public and "squares".
Can sumbody like LawDog see sumthing like this spread of -4 for the #1 team in the nation, against a team that has struggled to MEET EXPECTATIONS and have learned his lesson before? And say to himself, "Stay away!"
Betting can, and should be a learning experience. MUCH LIKE LIFE. If I see a line that is "too good to be true", I'm sure I will at least look DEEPER than I did for this game.
I looked at that line and said, "I usually post big write-ups of bets that I really think are good" (sumthing like that, not really an exact quote, but I've definitely said that about this game). I figured it was "over-thinking" to dig too deep into this "unbelievable" line.
I'm sure I'll AT LEAST think before I start "putting my finger on the trigger of my mouse" for when the line immediately comes out.
One thing that stuck out to me today, and I know that the game is getting closer than it was,....but I noticed that there was ONE sportsbook that KEPT a -3.5 line that ended up getting POSITIVE "juice" or what ever it is. I swear I saw a -3.5 (+130 sumthing) on the board in Covers.com.
NOW, I COULD DEFINITELY UNDERSTAND ONE BOOK ACCEPTING A BIG BET FROM A "SHARP" AND HAVING TO WILLINGLY CHASE TO COVER THE OTHERSIDE OF THE BET.
Hence a -3.5 (+130 sumthing).....(UNBELIEVEABLE TO THE "PUBLIC", hence ALOT of money coming in on it)
All the other sportsbooks were moving to 5, then 6, sum 6.5.
THE ONLY THING THAT I WON'T UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME IS,.....The big "sharps" may put ALOT of money on one side, BUT what does that mean?
DO THEY WIN ALL THE TIME? Do they know something that we don't? What happens to all the other sportsbooks? (I know the answer to that one,...I saw what happened to them,...they were "normal")
The other books were being businesses and keeping the money coming in even on both sides.
Even the book that had a BIG "sharp" bet, they did what they had to do to try and get money to come in on the other side,...REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME.
WHAT DOES EVERYONE THINK HERE?
I LOVE PHILOSOPHIZING. THAT'S WHAT "OPEN-MINDEDNESS" IS.
Now, David, do you just go against the public when it is WAY out of control? or do you follow a "sharp"? What's the deal?
I understand the game is not over, but watching K-State play this first half, THAT WAS NOT THE TEAM THAT I SAW ON PAPER and that was not the team that I saw on screen before this game.
Now, David, do you just go against the public when it is WAY out of control? or do you follow a "sharp"? What's the deal?
I understand the game is not over, but watching K-State play this first half, THAT WAS NOT THE TEAM THAT I SAW ON PAPER and that was not the team that I saw on screen before this game.
Example : I split my time between the sportsbooks and the poker table. Occasionally, Gus Hansen or Annie Duke show up in the poker room and play a bit. They are professional poker players and would I suppose, be the definition of a "sharp" in terms of their poker standings. I've never been in the sportsbook and seen a guy that everyone watches when he rolls in (besides pretty boy Floyd, who you can find at the Suncoast book (of all places) on NFL Sundays).
Also, anyone claiming to win tons of money sports gambling has an alterior motive. In the case of the gentlemen you mentioned, they just want to sell you there books. It's similar to those idiots that claim they can throw 7s in craps with the right training, another buy my book scam. Sorry to disappoint you. Unlike poker where everyone can clearly identify the winner of a tournament or high stakes game, all you have to judge sportsbook bettors is their word.
Example : I split my time between the sportsbooks and the poker table. Occasionally, Gus Hansen or Annie Duke show up in the poker room and play a bit. They are professional poker players and would I suppose, be the definition of a "sharp" in terms of their poker standings. I've never been in the sportsbook and seen a guy that everyone watches when he rolls in (besides pretty boy Floyd, who you can find at the Suncoast book (of all places) on NFL Sundays).
Also, anyone claiming to win tons of money sports gambling has an alterior motive. In the case of the gentlemen you mentioned, they just want to sell you there books. It's similar to those idiots that claim they can throw 7s in craps with the right training, another buy my book scam. Sorry to disappoint you. Unlike poker where everyone can clearly identify the winner of a tournament or high stakes game, all you have to judge sportsbook bettors is their word.
I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THIS CONCEPT OF ALWAYS bet against the public, stick with the sharps.
(I understand sharps and squares a bit more now)
But WHAT says that you will win MORE of these "trap" bets than lose these games.
And how can you spot them.
Is it the "it's too good to believe" that I should stay away from?
Is it that I saw ONE sportsbook trying to make up for ONE big bet?
PLEASE INLIGHTEN ME INSTEAD OF PUT ME DOWN FOR NOT KNOWING
I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THIS CONCEPT OF ALWAYS bet against the public, stick with the sharps.
(I understand sharps and squares a bit more now)
But WHAT says that you will win MORE of these "trap" bets than lose these games.
And how can you spot them.
Is it the "it's too good to believe" that I should stay away from?
Is it that I saw ONE sportsbook trying to make up for ONE big bet?
PLEASE INLIGHTEN ME INSTEAD OF PUT ME DOWN FOR NOT KNOWING
Now, David, do you just go against the public when it is WAY out of control? or do you follow a "sharp"? What's the deal?
I understand the game is not over, but watching K-State play this first half, THAT WAS NOT THE TEAM THAT I SAW ON PAPER and that was not the team that I saw on screen before this game.
Now, David, do you just go against the public when it is WAY out of control? or do you follow a "sharp"? What's the deal?
I understand the game is not over, but watching K-State play this first half, THAT WAS NOT THE TEAM THAT I SAW ON PAPER and that was not the team that I saw on screen before this game.
Hope that last quote wasn't directed toward me. I didn't post it.
Plus YOU calling a person a MORAN makes you LESS credible and much of what you just called them.
Be an adult and TEACH us something, instead of degrading us, EVEN THOUGH THE GAME ISN'T OVER AND YOU HAVEN'T WON.
Be careful what you say
Hope that last quote wasn't directed toward me. I didn't post it.
Plus YOU calling a person a MORAN makes you LESS credible and much of what you just called them.
Be an adult and TEACH us something, instead of degrading us, EVEN THOUGH THE GAME ISN'T OVER AND YOU HAVEN'T WON.
Be careful what you say
It's an example of people who actually turn peoples heads when they walk into a poker room, knucklehead. You can ID real poker players whether it's Tom Dwan or D. Negranu. I just haven't seen those particular guys personally.
NOBODY uses runners anymore after that kid got robbed and killed back in 2002, you can just call your bet in now. Shows what you know.
It's an example of people who actually turn peoples heads when they walk into a poker room, knucklehead. You can ID real poker players whether it's Tom Dwan or D. Negranu. I just haven't seen those particular guys personally.
NOBODY uses runners anymore after that kid got robbed and killed back in 2002, you can just call your bet in now. Shows what you know.
Now I DID VISIT ONE OF YOUR FORUM TOPICS THAT YOU STARTED ABOUT YOUR "TRAP SYSTEM". Does that mean that you have a system that figures these games out that you are successful with?!?!?
And if so,...do you win more, or lose more?
OR should I go with a strategy, that someone has posted recently, of "if it is too good to be true, just stay away".
Or should I do like you posted in your "trap system" strategy?!?!?
Now I DID VISIT ONE OF YOUR FORUM TOPICS THAT YOU STARTED ABOUT YOUR "TRAP SYSTEM". Does that mean that you have a system that figures these games out that you are successful with?!?!?
And if so,...do you win more, or lose more?
OR should I go with a strategy, that someone has posted recently, of "if it is too good to be true, just stay away".
Or should I do like you posted in your "trap system" strategy?!?!?
Now I DID VISIT ONE OF YOUR FORUM TOPICS THAT YOU STARTED ABOUT YOUR "TRAP SYSTEM". Does that mean that you have a system that figures these games out that you are successful with?!?!?
And if so,...do you win more, or lose more?
OR should I go with a strategy, that someone has posted recently, of "if it is too good to be true, just stay away".
Or should I do like you posted in your "trap system" strategy?!?!?
Now I DID VISIT ONE OF YOUR FORUM TOPICS THAT YOU STARTED ABOUT YOUR "TRAP SYSTEM". Does that mean that you have a system that figures these games out that you are successful with?!?!?
And if so,...do you win more, or lose more?
OR should I go with a strategy, that someone has posted recently, of "if it is too good to be true, just stay away".
Or should I do like you posted in your "trap system" strategy?!?!?
THANKS FOR THE INPUT. I WILL HAVE TO TRY TO KEEP AN EYE TO YOUR "TRAP SYSTEM" FORUM TOPICS TO SEE HOW YOU DO. I'm really interested in seeing how it works.
You've taught me a bit about why the almighty Vegas comes out with "way-off" lines, but what I REALLY need an explanation to is HOW WELL PEOPLE DO BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC.
I WILL DEFINITELY SLOW MY REACTION-TIME TIME DOWN ON PULLING THE TRIGGER ON "OH MY GOD" BETS, but still need some clarification as to wether the "sharps" win more than not.
THEY CAN'T WIN ALL THE TIME.
But they could win more often than not.
THANKS FOR THE INPUT. I WILL HAVE TO TRY TO KEEP AN EYE TO YOUR "TRAP SYSTEM" FORUM TOPICS TO SEE HOW YOU DO. I'm really interested in seeing how it works.
You've taught me a bit about why the almighty Vegas comes out with "way-off" lines, but what I REALLY need an explanation to is HOW WELL PEOPLE DO BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC.
I WILL DEFINITELY SLOW MY REACTION-TIME TIME DOWN ON PULLING THE TRIGGER ON "OH MY GOD" BETS, but still need some clarification as to wether the "sharps" win more than not.
THEY CAN'T WIN ALL THE TIME.
But they could win more often than not.
Public %'s should be checked before a play is ever put in by anyone. 78%+ was on Kansas tonight. K-St was the only way to go. If it's 70-75% on a team...it's either no one or the other side for me.
GL. Seems like you're trying to learn and I hope you do. If you want 1 piece of advice from somebody who has learned every lesson, there's one in the paragraph above.
Public %'s should be checked before a play is ever put in by anyone. 78%+ was on Kansas tonight. K-St was the only way to go. If it's 70-75% on a team...it's either no one or the other side for me.
GL. Seems like you're trying to learn and I hope you do. If you want 1 piece of advice from somebody who has learned every lesson, there's one in the paragraph above.
Now, David, do you just go against the public when it is WAY out of control? or do you follow a "sharp"? What's the deal?
I understand the game is not over, but watching K-State play this first half, THAT WAS NOT THE TEAM THAT I SAW ON PAPER and that was not the team that I saw on screen before this game.
I'm not the most seasoned gambler and I know I'm stating the obvious here. But paper is just one piece to the puzzle when looking at a game. Paper & stats are one thing. Revenge factor, atmosphere, injuries, recent form, schedule spot, recent matchups, home court, line movement, and the list goes on. We're all going to win some and lose some. Even the almighty Vegas. But like David said when we see a line that doesn't make any sense take a step back and think "why". Because I promise you they have a very good reason for putting the line where they do. If not we'd all be driving a Brinks truck and there wouldn't be a place like Vegas or our beloved online sportsbooks.
Now, David, do you just go against the public when it is WAY out of control? or do you follow a "sharp"? What's the deal?
I understand the game is not over, but watching K-State play this first half, THAT WAS NOT THE TEAM THAT I SAW ON PAPER and that was not the team that I saw on screen before this game.
I'm not the most seasoned gambler and I know I'm stating the obvious here. But paper is just one piece to the puzzle when looking at a game. Paper & stats are one thing. Revenge factor, atmosphere, injuries, recent form, schedule spot, recent matchups, home court, line movement, and the list goes on. We're all going to win some and lose some. Even the almighty Vegas. But like David said when we see a line that doesn't make any sense take a step back and think "why". Because I promise you they have a very good reason for putting the line where they do. If not we'd all be driving a Brinks truck and there wouldn't be a place like Vegas or our beloved online sportsbooks.
Thanks for your insight and amazingly thorough input to the game.
HAVE YOU EVEN POSTED UP UNTIL NOW?!?!?
That's great that you bet against the public.
That's great that you might win.
But if you need to gloat to bring your low self-esteem of yourself up,....I'm here for you buddy. It doesn't bother me.
K-State is shooting "lights out".
I'm guessing you "sharps" knew that.
Once again,...thanks for all your helpful insight, info, and gay-ass emoticons.
Thanks for your insight and amazingly thorough input to the game.
HAVE YOU EVEN POSTED UP UNTIL NOW?!?!?
That's great that you bet against the public.
That's great that you might win.
But if you need to gloat to bring your low self-esteem of yourself up,....I'm here for you buddy. It doesn't bother me.
K-State is shooting "lights out".
I'm guessing you "sharps" knew that.
Once again,...thanks for all your helpful insight, info, and gay-ass emoticons.
I'm not the most seasoned gambler and I know I'm stating the obvious here. But paper is just one piece to the puzzle when looking at a game. Paper & stats are one thing. Revenge factor, atmosphere, injuries, recent form, schedule spot, recent matchups, home court, line movement, and the list goes on. We're all going to win some and lose some. Even the almighty Vegas. But like David said when we see a line that doesn't make any sense take a step back and think "why". Because I promise you they have a very good reason for putting the line where they do. If not we'd all be driving a Brinks truck and there wouldn't be a place like Vegas or our beloved online sportsbooks.
Woa, woa, woa....the almighty Vegas DOESN'T LOOSE, UNLESS the amount of money is NOT even and the WRONG (for Vegas) team LOSES.
That accounts for less than 5% of the time.
This last SuperBowl was the 2nd LOWEST amount that Vegas made over the years.
TO ME, IMO, it looks like they "gambled within their means".
By that I mean "Vegas" and the ALL the sportsbooks AVERAGED a SMALL amount of profit. That means that the amounts of money on each side were "lopsided with in their TAX" that they charge and the WRONG team (the team that they favored to win and pushed a bit more money that way) won.
I know I might be losing people trying to explain that, but "VEGAS" could have pushed the LINES (O/U also) to EVEN the balances of money out, BUT THEY DIDN'T.
So they either WIN ALOT (Steelers & Under) or win a little (Packers & OVER)
I speak all this "Vegas keeps it even on both sides" because on BIG events like the SuperBowl, they DEFINITELY could have kept the amount of money on each side EVEN, but they didn't....THEY GAMBLED.
Still won, but not as much.
I'm not the most seasoned gambler and I know I'm stating the obvious here. But paper is just one piece to the puzzle when looking at a game. Paper & stats are one thing. Revenge factor, atmosphere, injuries, recent form, schedule spot, recent matchups, home court, line movement, and the list goes on. We're all going to win some and lose some. Even the almighty Vegas. But like David said when we see a line that doesn't make any sense take a step back and think "why". Because I promise you they have a very good reason for putting the line where they do. If not we'd all be driving a Brinks truck and there wouldn't be a place like Vegas or our beloved online sportsbooks.
Woa, woa, woa....the almighty Vegas DOESN'T LOOSE, UNLESS the amount of money is NOT even and the WRONG (for Vegas) team LOSES.
That accounts for less than 5% of the time.
This last SuperBowl was the 2nd LOWEST amount that Vegas made over the years.
TO ME, IMO, it looks like they "gambled within their means".
By that I mean "Vegas" and the ALL the sportsbooks AVERAGED a SMALL amount of profit. That means that the amounts of money on each side were "lopsided with in their TAX" that they charge and the WRONG team (the team that they favored to win and pushed a bit more money that way) won.
I know I might be losing people trying to explain that, but "VEGAS" could have pushed the LINES (O/U also) to EVEN the balances of money out, BUT THEY DIDN'T.
So they either WIN ALOT (Steelers & Under) or win a little (Packers & OVER)
I speak all this "Vegas keeps it even on both sides" because on BIG events like the SuperBowl, they DEFINITELY could have kept the amount of money on each side EVEN, but they didn't....THEY GAMBLED.
Still won, but not as much.
Public %'s should be checked before a play is ever put in by anyone. 78%+ was on Kansas tonight. K-St was the only way to go. If it's 70-75% on a team...it's either no one or the other side for me.
GL. Seems like you're trying to learn and I hope you do. If you want 1 piece of advice from somebody who has learned every lesson, there's one in the paragraph above.
THANK YOU, I DO APPRECIATE THAT POST.
RESPECT AND HELPFUL
Public %'s should be checked before a play is ever put in by anyone. 78%+ was on Kansas tonight. K-St was the only way to go. If it's 70-75% on a team...it's either no one or the other side for me.
GL. Seems like you're trying to learn and I hope you do. If you want 1 piece of advice from somebody who has learned every lesson, there's one in the paragraph above.
THANK YOU, I DO APPRECIATE THAT POST.
RESPECT AND HELPFUL
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