Hi everyone,
This is from Dmon:
Despite the four Ivy games on the board tonight, my favorite play today might actually be ODU +3.5. As I mentioned briefly in my last email, I really like this spot for them. Below is my writeup on the game, and feel free to throw this in my Ivy thread if you want even though it's not an Ivy game.
UNI, which is coming off of a blowout of Creighton to clinch the MVC regular season title. While you could say that the national spotlight of a Bracket Buster game would mitigate any potential letdown factor, I'm not sure I agree. The fact is they clinched the MVC regular season crown the other night and in doing so accomplished their primary goal for the regular season. I'm sure they're saying all the right things and doing all the right things to prepare for this game, but their hearts can't possibly be in it as much as they might like because they're really not playing for anything at all (any suggestion that they haven't already "clinched" an at-large is just silly). And the fact that they've lost their last two BB games the past two years has me thinking a little that these players don't realllly value this game the same way they do their big conference home games. ODU, on the other hand, should be a little bit hungrier in this game (although they're also in pretty good shape to get an at-large, albeit not as great as UNI). And ODU is certainly battle-tested on the road this year. And for what it's worth, ODU has a tremendous BB history, winning their games the past few years.
Now let's take a look at the effect Eglseder suspension. While UNI really rallied around each other last game and overcame his absence with some ridiculous three point shooting, I think this game they'll really miss him. Eglseder is the centerpiece of their offense when he's in the game, as he has one of the highest usage rates in the entire country (31.5%, good for 16th in the nation). Last game they really focused on the three ball a lot more than they normally do, and were hitting like crazy and so his absence didn't hurt them too much. But with ODU one of the best teams in the country at defender the perimeter and the three-ball specifically, the lack of their go-to big man could be a huge issue. He's also a big piece of their D, as he's their lane-clogger and only shot-blocker. And against an ODU team that doesn't shoot from the outside that much (they get the second highest proportion of their points from 2-pt FGs in the country), it's the interior D that matters most and that's where his absence will hurt them on that end.
I really don't see ODU getting beat handily tonight against a team they match up so well against (that happens to be in a prime let-down spot). Most likely, ODU either wins this game or it comes down to the wire. I'll take the better team in the better spot with the better matchups. Give me ODU and the points.
Hi everyone,
This is from Dmon:
Despite the four Ivy games on the board tonight, my favorite play today might actually be ODU +3.5. As I mentioned briefly in my last email, I really like this spot for them. Below is my writeup on the game, and feel free to throw this in my Ivy thread if you want even though it's not an Ivy game.
UNI, which is coming off of a blowout of Creighton to clinch the MVC regular season title. While you could say that the national spotlight of a Bracket Buster game would mitigate any potential letdown factor, I'm not sure I agree. The fact is they clinched the MVC regular season crown the other night and in doing so accomplished their primary goal for the regular season. I'm sure they're saying all the right things and doing all the right things to prepare for this game, but their hearts can't possibly be in it as much as they might like because they're really not playing for anything at all (any suggestion that they haven't already "clinched" an at-large is just silly). And the fact that they've lost their last two BB games the past two years has me thinking a little that these players don't realllly value this game the same way they do their big conference home games. ODU, on the other hand, should be a little bit hungrier in this game (although they're also in pretty good shape to get an at-large, albeit not as great as UNI). And ODU is certainly battle-tested on the road this year. And for what it's worth, ODU has a tremendous BB history, winning their games the past few years.
Now let's take a look at the effect Eglseder suspension. While UNI really rallied around each other last game and overcame his absence with some ridiculous three point shooting, I think this game they'll really miss him. Eglseder is the centerpiece of their offense when he's in the game, as he has one of the highest usage rates in the entire country (31.5%, good for 16th in the nation). Last game they really focused on the three ball a lot more than they normally do, and were hitting like crazy and so his absence didn't hurt them too much. But with ODU one of the best teams in the country at defender the perimeter and the three-ball specifically, the lack of their go-to big man could be a huge issue. He's also a big piece of their D, as he's their lane-clogger and only shot-blocker. And against an ODU team that doesn't shoot from the outside that much (they get the second highest proportion of their points from 2-pt FGs in the country), it's the interior D that matters most and that's where his absence will hurt them on that end.
I really don't see ODU getting beat handily tonight against a team they match up so well against (that happens to be in a prime let-down spot). Most likely, ODU either wins this game or it comes down to the wire. I'll take the better team in the better spot with the better matchups. Give me ODU and the points.
Not the case dmon, last week's game there were 18 pts scored in the last 1:05 and the under still hit by 5 pts. It was my 2nd biggest play of the year. The Harvard/Cornell games vs Penn where everyone shot lights out are really skewing the total here. Against Harvard/Cornell, 2 of the fastest paced teams in the IVY, they averaged 60 possessions. That all those 3's went down for those teams was fluky, otherwise under would have hit easily. Brown/Penn are 2 teams that should be around 1.00 pts/possession and there shouldn't be more than 63-64 possessions in this game (max I'd think)
Not the case dmon, last week's game there were 18 pts scored in the last 1:05 and the under still hit by 5 pts. It was my 2nd biggest play of the year. The Harvard/Cornell games vs Penn where everyone shot lights out are really skewing the total here. Against Harvard/Cornell, 2 of the fastest paced teams in the IVY, they averaged 60 possessions. That all those 3's went down for those teams was fluky, otherwise under would have hit easily. Brown/Penn are 2 teams that should be around 1.00 pts/possession and there shouldn't be more than 63-64 possessions in this game (max I'd think)
Not the case dmon, last week's game there were 18 pts scored in the last 1:05 and the under still hit by 5 pts. It was my 2nd biggest play of the year. The Harvard/Cornell games vs Penn where everyone shot lights out are really skewing the total here. Against Harvard/Cornell, 2 of the fastest paced teams in the IVY, they averaged 60 possessions. That all those 3's went down for those teams was fluky, otherwise under would have hit easily. Brown/Penn are 2 teams that should be around 1.00 pts/possession and there shouldn't be more than 63-64 possessions in this game (max I'd think)
Not the case dmon, last week's game there were 18 pts scored in the last 1:05 and the under still hit by 5 pts. It was my 2nd biggest play of the year. The Harvard/Cornell games vs Penn where everyone shot lights out are really skewing the total here. Against Harvard/Cornell, 2 of the fastest paced teams in the IVY, they averaged 60 possessions. That all those 3's went down for those teams was fluky, otherwise under would have hit easily. Brown/Penn are 2 teams that should be around 1.00 pts/possession and there shouldn't be more than 63-64 possessions in this game (max I'd think)
The Penn/Princeton pace was high b/c of the last minute. It would have ended at 55-57 if not for all the shit in the final minute. Average last minute I think sees 4.5 possessions. I think there were 8.5 in last minute of the Penn/Princeton game.
The Penn/Princeton pace was high b/c of the last minute. It would have ended at 55-57 if not for all the shit in the final minute. Average last minute I think sees 4.5 possessions. I think there were 8.5 in last minute of the Penn/Princeton game.
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