Where the action is: Sharps moving Warriors-Spurs odds

May 10, 2013 |
After a one-day hiatus, NBA playoff action is back with two games Friday night. The Miami Heat flexed their muscles in Game 2 and come to Chitown looking to make a statement. The Golden State Warriors stunned the San Antonio Spurs and could easily be up 2-0 with this series swinging to the Bay Area.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the action and betting patterns heading into tonight’s pair of postseason matchups.

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
– Open: +6.5, Move: +7.5

Miami shut the Bulls up with a blowout win in Game 2 and come to Chicago as sizable road favorites. According to Stewart, 80 percent of the early action is on the Heat heading into Game 3 Friday.

“We've gone from +7 to +7.5 and if money keeps showing on the Heat, I believe we'll close this game Heat -8,” Stewart tells Covers.

As for the total for Game 3, the number opened at 188 and has dropped as low as 187 at some markets. The Heat and Bulls have split the over/under in the two games this series, with Game 2 topping the 186.5-point total.

“So far, slightly more money has come on the under but definitely not enough to move off our number,” says Stewart.

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors
– Open:  -1.5, Move: -3.5, Move: -3

The Warriors could be up 2-0 after losing Game 1 in double overtime and stunning the Spurs in San Antonio in Game 2.

Golden State has covered in all eight games this postseason and is riding an 11-game ATS streak going back to the regular season. Early money pounded the Warriors and pushed the spread as high as -3.5 at CarbonSports.ag.

All the early money, as well as sharp money, was bet on the Warriors,” says Stewart. “We pretty much bypassed -2.5 and went straight to Warriors -3, a decent size move for an NBA playoff game.”

Stewart says they upped the spread to -3.5 to attract some Spurs action and took wiseguy wagers and public money buying back the road underdog, dropping the spread back to Golden State -3.

“Since going back to -3 again, we’ve taken lots of Warriors action at that number,” he says. “I believe we will eventually go back to -3.5 before this game goes off tonight. Roughly 70 percent of the action so far is on the Warriors.”

The total for Game 3 of this Western Conference semifinal has moved from 204 to as low as 202 points at some books, with sharp action pushing the number.

“We opened 204 and took a sharp bet under that number and went to 203.5, a short move off sharp action but we're anticipating the public coming in on the over,” says Stewart. “Currently, we're split on the total, but again I see this game being bet over and us needing it under when it's all said and done.”

The Spurs and Warriors have split the over/under in the first two games of this series, with Game 2 playing under the 205-point number.

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