Sunday's NFL Week 3 betting cheat sheet: Late action

Sep 21, 2013 |
Sunday's NFL Week 3 betting cheat sheet: Late action
Manuel has three TDs and just one pick through his first two NFL games.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Manuel has three TDs and just one pick through his first two NFL games.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-3, 45)

After being held to 17 points in the opener, Atlanta's offense rebounded against St. Louis but was still too one-dimensional. The Falcons had only 36 rushing yards and have to rely on backups Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling to improve upon that. The defense has given up big chunks of yards but has limited the damage on the scoreboard, although the rash of injuries on that side of the ball leave numerous questions going into Sunday.

Second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill appears to be maturing, as he recorded his second career 300-yard passing game in a 24-20 win against the Colts, leaning on receiver Mike Wallace (nine catches, 115 yards, TD) and tight end Charles Clay (five catches, 109 yards). The Dolphins still need more out of running backs Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas, neither of whom is averaging more than three yards per carry.

LINE: Miami opened -1, moved to -2.5 and is now -3. The total opened at 44 and moved to 45.
Falcons (-4.0) - Dolphins (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
Temperatures will be in the low-90s with a 20 percent chance of rain.

* The favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* The Under is 5-1 in Dolphins last six home games.
* The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
(-2.5, 40.5)

EJ Manuel has completed 68.2 percent of his passes and thrown for 446 yards with three TDs and one interception in his first two games. Wide receiver Stevie Johnson, who caught the winning scoring pass last week, has been his favorite target with 11 catches for 150 yards and two touchdowns while the two-pronged running attack of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson have combined to give Buffalo the league's fourth-best rushing attack at 142.5 yards per game.

Geno Smith guided New York to a last-second game-winning field goal in the season opener against Tampa Bay and had his team in position for a huge upset at New England before tossing three fourth-quarter interceptions. He is completing only 53.4 percent of his attempts and his 55.2 passer rating is next-to-last in the league. The tandem of Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell rushed for 100 yards versus the Patriots after combining for only 44 yards in the season opener, but the key to the game could hinge on New York's defense, which is tied for fourth in the league in allowing 59.5 yards on the ground.

LINE: The Jets opened as 1-point faves and are now -2.5. The total opened at 39 and is now 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bills (+5.0) - Jets (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -3.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with partly cloudy skies.

* The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New York.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-10, 46.5)

The move to snag Trent Richardson solidifies Indianapolis' commitment to the power-run game - a tactic first broached when the Colts acquired Ahmad Bradshaw in the offseason. Now, with a player head coach Chuck Pagano describes as a "rolling ball of butcher knives," Indianapolis believes it is poised to make a run at the AFC championship - and Richardson is a believer. "Playing against these guys twice, just seeing how they are around each other when they're on the sideline, it's been a big change," Richardson told reporters. "They're happy to come to work, and they're ready to go."

Teams are daring 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick to beat them through the air - and while that strategy backfired on Green Bay in Kaepernick's Week 1 explosion against the Green Bay Packers (412 passing yards, three TDs), the Seahawks proved to be far better at it. Running back Frank Gore has struggled the most, compiling just 60 yards on 30 carries against the Packers and Seahawks.

LINE: The 49ers opened as a 10-point fave. The total opened at 45.5 and has moved to 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Colts (+1.5) + 49ers (-7.5) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -12.0
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph.

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 7-0 in 49ers last seven home games.
* The Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. loss.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19, 39.5)

Chad Henne will again start at quarterback and has yet to be intercepted while completing 63.6 percent of his passes. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew (72 yards, 2.9 average) injured his left foot in the loss to Oakland and is questionable, which means Jordan Todman (nine yards on six carries) is in line for more playing time. Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny has a team-high 19 tackles for a defense allowing 316 yards per game. However, the unit has forced only one turnover and recorded just four sacks.

Seattle has a league-best seven takeaways (four fumbles, three interceptions) and is allowing a league-low 113 passing yards per game. Sherman has seven interceptions in his last seven home games and the pass defense figures to get even better if starting cornerback Brandon Browner (hamstring) is available for the first time this season. Quarterback Russell Wilson (462 yards, two touchdowns) is off to a pedestrian start and running back Marshawn Lynch (141 rushing yards) is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 20-point fave and is currently -19. The total opened at 41 and is 39.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jaguars (+9.0) + Seahawks (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -20
WEATHER: There is a 92 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow from the south at 14 mph toward the north end zone.

* Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Seahawks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 8-0 in Seahawks last eight games in September.

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 41)

Chicago is 20-7-1 in the all-time series, which includes a franchise-record 13-game winning streak from 1934-49. Devin Hester has shown no signs of slowing down, as he registered a team-record 249 yards on kick returns in Sunday's triumph over Minnesota. Running back Matt Forte is one of two players in the NFL with over 5,000 yards rushing and 2,000 receiving since joining the league in 2008.

Injuries have played a large role in Pittsburgh's struggles, with running back Le'Veon Bell (foot) and tight end Heath Miller (knee) missing each of the first two games and center Maurkice Pouncey (knee), running back LaRod Stephens-Howling (knee) and linebacker Larry Foote (bicep) suffering season-ending injuries in the opener. The Steelers have won five of their last six home meetings with the Bears dating back to 1967. Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery is two receptions shy of 400 for his career.

The Steelers opened +1. The total opened at 39.5 and has moved up to 41.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Bears (-2.0) + Steelers (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers +1.5
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.

* Over is 4-0 in Bears last four games overall.
* Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.

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