USA TODAY Sports

NFC Championship action report: Sharps on Seahawks, public loves 49ers

There are two huge conference championship matchups on the NFL board this Sunday, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos battling for the AFC title, and the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixing it up for the NFC crown.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in the NFC Championship Game, the early line moves, and where he sees the line landing coming kickoff.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -3, Move: -3.5

These NFC West rivals know each other all too well, having split their two games during the regular season. However, Seattle covered in both those contests and has drawn the early action in this battle of 11-5 ATS teams.

According to Stewart, sharp money first showed on the Seahawks and forced an extra half a point on the field-goal spread. However, since that adjustment, the public has piled on the underdog 49ers, who have won eight in a row, including two road playoff games.

“We’re seeing way more action on the dog than we are on the favorite,” Stewart tells Covers. “After going to 3.5, we saw a surge of 49ers money but this isn’t a game where we wanted to move the number and go back to -3, because as everyone knows, three is such a live number and we don’t want to get middled or sided.”

With about 70 percent of the handle sitting on the Niners, oddsmakers are juggling the juice, trying to stick to that 3.5-point spread. Sharp money hit the Seahawks again Wednesday morning, forcing a five cent adjustment to the vig from 49ers +3.5 (-125) to +3.5 (-120), with the Seahawks coming back at -3.5 (EVEN).

“This is a game where we’re seeing public money on the dog and sharp money on the favorite, and we kind of anticipated this scenario,” says Stewart. “Our bettors have been all over the 49ers in the playoffs. We’ve seen sharp money support the Seahawks at home all season and unlike last week, they’ve gotten the money more times than not. So this game and the line movement has been somewhat predictable.”

Stewart says the bulk of the action is still to come but they aren’t exposed with liability on either side so far and he doesn’t expect the spread to stray much farther than its current stand, offsetting money by dialing the juice up and down.

As for the total for the NFC Championship Game, the number opened at 41 points and immediately drew money from wiseguys on the Under Sunday evening. That trimmed the total to 40 but could stop action from sharps playing the Under. Their most recent move to 39.5 has finally coaxed Over bettors out of hibernation but it’s not enough to add to this number.

“We respect the Under money we booked so I don’t see us going back to 40 anytime soon,” says Stewart. “We really like where we’re at in this game, both on the side and total.”

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Posted by dimeplay28
9 months ago

Hasn't this been the case in the two previous 49er playoff games? Public on the 49ers and "sharps" against them.
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Posted by dimeplay28
9 months ago

Hasn't this been the case in the two previous 49er playoff games? Public on the 49ers and "sharps" against them.
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Posted by tomnolan
9 months ago

all a bunch of crap!! yesterday the Ucla game opened up at ucla-2. it went off at Ucla+1.5 so what does that tell you???????
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Posted by roastedpeanuts
9 months ago

Tim Towner they are betting numbers, they know will drive it up then they can comeback with the other side for more or the same,,have a huge middle or a nice hedge and the auburn middle was huge
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Posted by vegasgarlic
9 months ago

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Posted by bradyballs
9 months ago

Amazing what the hook can do caught me last week. Some reason trying to remember old ravens totals..superbowl goose was like 291/2? Kerry Collins and the giants scored what 7. Hard to beat the pass rush when youre waiting for the ball. I like the over, I really think these two kid qbs want to and will deliver a variety from runs to deep throws (crabtree boldin) and 3tds per half seems reasonable.
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Posted by shoch
9 months ago

SF ML+155
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Top Response

Posted by shoch
9 months ago

"SF ML+155"