Inside the stats: Northwestern, Utah leaking oil
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings. A Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.
Elevator Up Elevator Down
Season-ending finales in college football take on added significance for teams sitting on the bubble.
In this case, the ‘bubble’ is beneath any team currently one-game under .500 playing in its final game of the regular season. A win today puts them at .500, a loss sends them home a loser for the year. And in many cases these days, a .500 record is often rewarded with a post-season bowl bid.
According to our well-oiled database, these one-game under .500 teams stand a good chance of becoming a .500 team in these season-enders when they find themselves favored in a conference game, and conversely, a lousy chance if they are installed as an underdog in a conference game.
That’s because one-game under .500 conference favorites in season finales are 32-12 SU and 29-15 ATS. This week’s prospective favorites include: Central Michigan, Florida Atlantic and Troy.
Better yet, when favored against an opponent they defeated in a most recent meeting, they zoom to 20-4 SU and 18-5 ATS. Central Michigan will be out to clip the EMU Eagles’ wings this week.
On the flip side, one-game under .500 conference underdogs in season finales are just 17-59-1 SU and 30-44-3 ATS. This week’s dogs with a toothless bite are: La-Monroe, Mississippi State, San Jose State, Syracuse and Wyoming.
Put these same puppies up against a greater than .700 foe and they turn terribly tame, going 4-21 SU and 6-17-2 ATS. Worse, they pee all over the place at 0-16 SU and 1-13-2 ATS as dogs of more than 7 points when facing these same greater-than .700 conference opponents in these games. Both Louisiana-Monroe and San Jose State figure to be in need of potty-training this weekend.
So when choosing to ride any of these one-game under .500 teams in these pivotal contests this week, your success depends on selecting the right door when hopping aboard.
Your ride awaits.
Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites in this condition.
These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 22-27 ATS overall this season, including 17-19 in CFB and 5-8 in the NFL.
According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Houston, Northwestern, Ohio University, Tennessee, UAB and Utah on the college gridiron, along with Dallas and the NY Jets in the NFL.
Our NFL Totals Tipsheet keeps tabs throughout the season on Over/Under scoring tendencies in the NFL. And as reported in this column, the success of OVERS has been outstanding in non-conference games.
A 1-1 split last week moves the record on these, these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) to 39-13 OVER on season, including a jaw-dropping 17-3 OVER the last six weeks.
This week’s OVER achievers would be the Oakland-Dallas game on Thursday and Atlanta-Buffalo matchup on Sunday.
Stat Of The Week
The underdog in Arizona Wildcats’ games is 24-2 ATS during the regular season from Game Ten out.