Sunday's NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1, 40)

Pittsburgh is riding a resurgent Ben Roethlisberger, who was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 367 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Roethlisberger is 15-1 as a starter against the Browns and has 24 TDs and 10 interceptions against them. The defense has played inconsistently, holding six opponents under 300 total yards and giving up 393 or more in its other four games. 

Cleveland has won three of its last four home games but stumbled on the road last week, committing four turnovers in a 41-20 loss at Cincinnati. The defense has kept the Browns competitive, ranking fifth in total yards (306.5) and in the top eight against both the run and the pass. It's another story on offense, where Brandon Weeden's ineffectiveness and Brian Hoyer's knee injury have forced the Browns to turn to veteran Jason Campbell.

LINE: Cleveland opened -2 but has been bet down to -1. The total is down from 41.5 to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 40 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Cleveland (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -2

* Steelers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
* Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC foes.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5, 48.5)

While Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson leads the league in receiving yards (1,083) and touchdowns (11), Tampa Bay believes cornerback Darrelle Revis is more than up to the task of guarding him. The two All-Pros have tangled once before, with Revis limiting Johnson to one catch for 13 yards in a meeting four years ago. Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven appearances this season.

Reggie Bush fumbled twice - losing one - to find himself on the bench before receiving limited work when backup Joique Bell suffered an Achilles injury. Bush struggled on Sunday - as he has in all four of the team's losses - and has combined for at least 100 yards rushing and receiving in all of Detroit's wins. Bush, who still has the confidence of head coach Jim Schwartz, has since promised he won't fumble again this season.

LINE: Detroit opened -10 but has been bet down to -9.5. The total has held steady at 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+5.0) + Detroit (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -11

* Buccaneers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 17-8-1 in Detroit's previous 26 games following an ATS loss.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4, 43.5)

Wide receiver Greg Jennings (Achilles) returned to practice Thursday while running back Adrian Peterson (groin) sat out again, but coach Leslie Frazier said they both should be ready for the game. Peterson, who vowed to break the NFL's single-season rushing mark before the campaign began, won't come close to that mark as he has only 851 yards and nine touchdowns.

Green Bay players aren't afraid to call this a must-win as the Packers sit a game behind both Chicago and Detroit in the division race. Green Bay has won seven of the last eight matchups with Minnesota, including a 24-10 victory in last season's playoff opener at Lambeau Field. The Packers have lost tight end Jermichael Finley for the season and have to wait until Week 15 for the return of wide receiver Randall Cobb.

LINE: Green Bay opened -5 but has been bet down to -4. The total has dropped a half-point to 43.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+6.0) - Green Bay (+4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -4.5

* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 12.
* Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10, 43.5)

Leading tackler Paul Posluszny will be back after the middle linebacker missed last weekend's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a concussion. Jacksonville held the Cardinals to 14 rushing yards, prompting Posluszny (88 tackles) to joke that perhaps his presence isn’t all that important. The offense’s rushing abilities were just as meager as the Jaguars had a season-worst 32 rushing yards

Houston quarterback Case Keenum tossed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games but head coach Gary Kubiak didn’t like what he was seeing in the third quarter of the Oakland contest and pulled him in favor of Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson is 10 receptions away from becoming the 15th player in NFL history to reach 900, while defensive end J.J. Watt (8.5 sacks) heads the league’s top defense (286.1 yards per game).

LINE: Houston has dropped from a -10.5 open to -10. The total is up a half-point to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+9.0) - Houston (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -7

* Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Under is 10-3-1 in Jacksonville's last 14 games vs. the AFC South.

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1, 45)

McCown's emergence is in line with an emerging theme in Chicago - a number of key players have been lost to injury but Marc Trestman's squad remains in the thick of the playoff race. Star linebacker Lance Briggs remains out with a shoulder injury but defensive end Shea McClellin (hamstring) went through a full practice on Thursday. Fellow defensive linemen Jeremiah Ratliff and Stephen Paea are expected to miss Sunday's game.

The Rams still have faint hopes of getting into the wild-card mix, although they will need lots of help and some upsets in a stretch run that includes games at San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle and a home game against New Orleans. That makes the meeting with the Bears a virtual must-win, and to find success St. Louis may lean heavily on standout rookie running back Zac Stacy, who has averaged 107.7 yards in the last three games.

LINE: Game opened as a pick before being bet up to St. Louis -1. The total is down a half-point to 45.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + St. Louis (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5

* Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 39)

New York is the first team to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games of the season and is due for a victory if that pattern holds. The Jets have been outscored by 85 points - worse than every AFC team except the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars - and have recorded each of their five wins by a touchdown or fewer thanks to a strong running game on offense and a strong defense against the run on the other side.

Baltimore’s Super Bowl hangover is threatening to knock it out of the playoff hunt and tight losses have been the biggest concern. The Ravens dropped a 23-20 overtime decision at Chicago last week and their last five losses have come by an average of 3.4 points. Joe Flacco has much more experience than Jets counterpart Geno Smith, but he is looking just as lost recently with four interceptions in the last two games.

LINE: Ravens have held as 3.5-point faves. The total is down one point to 39.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.5) - Baltimore (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens -3.5

* Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight November games.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
* New York is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 42)

San Diego boasts the No. 7 offense (399.4 total yards) and the fourth-best passing game (287.9) as quarterback Philip Rivers has returned to form following two subpar seasons. Rivers leads the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has completed at least 30 passes to five different receivers. The offense has difficulty keeping pace with one of the league's most porous defenses, though, as the Chargers give up 389 total yards per contest.

Kansas City didn't have enough offensive firepower to keep pace with Denver. The Chiefs lean on Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in rushing yards (803) and receptions (49) with a combined eight touchdowns, but they need some other playmakers to step up down the stretch and in the postseason. The defense owns the best turnover margin in the league (plus-15), leads the AFC in scoring defense (13.8) and ranks second in the NFL in sacks (36).

LINE: Chiefs opened -5 but have dropped to -4. The total is up a half-point to 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s under sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+1.0) + Kansas City (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -7.5

* Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four November games.
* Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC West.
* Under is 13-3 in Kansas City's last 16 home games vs. teams with losing road records.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5, 41)

Carolina's defense has quietly had a terrific season, allowing 24 points or less in all 10 games and yielding 12.8 points on average during the six-game winning streak. That said, standout defensive end Charles Johnson got leg-whipped against the Patriots and could be unavailable for Sunday's contest. One player who will definitely be healthy is wideout Steve Smith, who has 257 yards and four touchdowns in his last two matchups with Miami.

Tannehill has not thrown for more than 270 yards in a game since early October and has only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game once this season. Signed to a five-year, $60 million deal during the offseason, Mike Wallace only has one touchdown on the year and has totaled eight catches for 54 yards over the last two weeks. Miami has allowed 18.3 points over its last three contests.

LINE: Panthers opened at -3.5 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is down a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 40 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 17 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (-4.5) + Miami (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Panthers -5

* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Carolina's last 10 games on grass.

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Posted by william82
3 years ago

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Posted by william82
3 years ago

"Miami. "