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Bet by the numbers: Super Bowl XLVI betting trends and stats

With two weeks to analyze and over-analyze every bit of statistical information connected to Super Bowl XLVI, bettors could go mad like Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind. So before you start writing stats and figures all over your windows, let Covers Expert Marc Lawrence do the heavy number crunching for the Big Game.

Take a quick look how New England and New York arrived to Super Bowl XLVI and at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. 

All results are ATS (against the spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.  

Common denominators

These two teams squared off against one another’s division in 2011 and the results were, for all intents and purposes, diametrically opposite. 

New England was 3-1 SU (straight up) but 1-3 ATS and 1-3 ITS (in the stats) in games against the NFC East while New York hit a grand slam against the AFC East, going 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS and 3-1 ITS.

Additionally, the Patriots’ opponents combined for an overall record of 141-157 (.473) this season while New York took on foes that ended up 176-139 (.559).

Advantage: Giants

The "R" word

Revenge has been a factor in Super Bowl games.

New York upset New England in Gillette Stadium as a 9-point underdog this season, despite being outgained by 77 yards in the contest. That set up a “double-revenge” incentive for Tom Brady’s bunch after seeing dreams of a perfect season ruined in a 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII.

Interestingly, teams playing with same-season loss revenge are 7-5 SU in Super Bowls, including 3-0 the last three games. 

Revenge has been a staple for the Patriots especially under the tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The Dynamic Duo is 43-13 SU and 36-17-3 ATS in games when avenging a loss, including 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS when playing off three or more wins in a row.

In addition, Belichick and Brady have lost five playoff games together. They are 2-0 SU during the postseason in playoff loss revenge games, defeating Denver and Baltimore this campaign

Advantage: Patriots

Faux favorites

The public loves backing favorites, and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy. 

The public today suffers from a bad case of diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-11 SU and 13-16-2 ATS record, including 5-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (read: New England) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-9 SU and 7-13-2 ATS.

The last sixteen favorites to score 30 or fewer points are 2-14-1 ATS, an interesting stat considering that Tom Coughlin’s teams have surrendered more than 28 points in only three of 15 postseason games while Bill Belichick’s troops have tallied more than 28 points in just six of 24 playoff contests.

Advantage: Giants

20/20 vision

Speaking of scoring, putting points on the scoreboard is obviously vital to succeeding in this game. 

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don’t, lose the game and their shirt. It’s just that simple.

And 20 points appears to be the cut-line.

That’s because, since 1977, teams that fail to score 20 points in the Super Bowl are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 30-11 SU and 27-11-3 ATS.

Ironically, the only team to score fewer than 20 points and win a Super Bowl in that span was New York in its 17-14 win over New England in Super Bowl XLII.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 26-1 SU and 23-3-1 ATS dating back to 1977.

Advantage: Even

Seed me

Sixteen top-seeded teams from the AFC have made it to the title game since 1977, but only four were crowned champions – the most recent being the 2003 New England Patriots.

No. 1 seeds are 6-12-1 ATS since 1990, including 2-8 SU and ATS the last 10. In fact, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No. 1 seed, was the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

And going back the last 16 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game, going an eye-opening 1-12-2 ATS following the Steelers failure against the Packers last year. 

Advantage: Giants

Conference call

Like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 20-11 SU and 19-10-2 ATS.

However, the NFC is only 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS of late in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the ninth time in 10 years the AFC opened as the favorite.

Advantage:
Even

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Posted by gfunk640
2 years ago

indoor game means no weather to affect score. two teams with high offenses....... just play the OVER!!!
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Posted by gfunk640
2 years ago

indoor game means no weather to affect score. two teams with high offenses....... just play the OVER!!!
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Posted by Chino3y3z
2 years ago

Giants fan....but NE is looking to even the score and just came off a bad game. Both those factors usually = big win.
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Posted by veronica27
2 years ago

could i really be missing the ly on my comp .. lol it is only thurs guys ! who wants to workout with the kid ? time to get motivated for the sb ! chest , arms and back . yall think i am trippin . haha
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Posted by veronica27
2 years ago

is it really on thurs ? we need a beach trip ! lol
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Posted by veronica27
2 years ago

omg , is it really on thurs .. i dont think i will make it to halftime to see madonna .. going with big blue to pull it out ! wow , lets not even count the bronco rvenge game , throw out the ravens one too since ravens really had em .. imo is ne wins my life is truly cursed . that woudl be sad .. maybe . lol
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Posted by SugeKnight
2 years ago

uhhhh the pats went 5-1, and 4-2 ATS against the afc east, whilst the giants went 3-3 both su and ATS, so therefore their combined common opponent records stand at 8-2, 5-5 ATS for the pats, and 7-3, 5-4-1 ATS for the giants...MARC i would love to see what you have to say about this....it just seems more even than "complete opposites"
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Posted by SugeKnight
2 years ago

*whilst the giants went 3-3 both su and ATS *IN THEIR DIVISION* pardon for the lack of a proofread
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Posted by SugeKnight
2 years ago

*whilst the giants went 3-3 both su and ATS *IN THEIR DIVISION* pardon for the lack of a proofread
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Posted by jerseyjohnny77
2 years ago

gimme 3.5 pts. all day and all night!
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Posted by jerseyjohnny77
2 years ago

tks. marki respect the revenge factor only slightly less than u do. therefore i'm going to double up on the giants-. adv. big blue- 3 above average receivers and better d. gl all.
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Posted by dagrad
2 years ago

Keep diluting yourself everybody. Giants are just a better overall team and much more battle tested than the Pats. Championship game: Giants beat the 49ers...who own the #1 defense. Pats beat a banged up and OLD Ravens D. Semi's: Pats didn't even break a sweat against the Broncos. Giants beat the defending champions..also the favorites. Taking the Giants to the bank.
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Posted by hangtyme
2 years ago

the spread have fell 1 point and three days probably down to a pick come kick-off time i am taking the under it has fell 1 point also so i am making my bet this saturday
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Posted by Mr_E
2 years ago

Love or hate the pats, we are witnessing history. Brady has a good 5 years maybe more left in him, and this future hall of fame quarterback will make this game interesting either way. I think the revenge factor is huge for the pats, BB and co. rarely lose to the same team twice in a season. Also Josh McDaniels wasn't there during the first meeting and I think he will have a positive impact for NE and will be burning for revenge like BB and Brady.
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Posted by madulamaximus
2 years ago

NO HOCUS POCUS HERE................PATS AND THE OVERS..............I GOT 10,000.00 DOLLAS................... REPEAT!!!!!...................10,0000.......DOLLAS.......ON A TWO PIC. There is no way im going against Bill,....................and Brady...........AND THE SYSTEM!!!!!!!!!!!!.......WHEN YOU GIVE THEM TIME TO STUDY.
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Posted by lmstudfosho
2 years ago

Get the Hell out of here!!!
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Posted by yaz
2 years ago

Neat stuff. Methinks it will be difficult shooting Brady down three in a row.
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Top Response

Posted by Mr_E
2 years ago

"Love or hate the pats, we are witnessing history. Brady has a good 5 years maybe more left in him, and this future hall of fame quarterback will make this game interesting either way. I think the revenge factor is huge for the pats, BB and co. rarely..."