NFL Power Rankings: Week 4

By Teddy Covers - Covers Expert

There are a few interesting developments in our NFL Power Rankings right now. We have a 1-2 team ranked at the top of our list and we have several unbeaten teams ranked well down on our Power Rating scale. Trust the system, things will sort themselves out.

NFL Power Rankings

Rank Last Week Change Team W-L-T (ATS) Power Rating Team Comments
1 1 same 1-2-0
-5 Carolina
I’m not thrilled about installing a 1-2 team at the very top of my NFL Power Ratings, but there isn’t a single team ranked below the Panthers who grades out ahead of them.
2 5 up 3 3-0-0
-4.5 Denver
The defending Super Bowl champs haven’t missed a beat in the post-Peyton era, winning by margin at Cinci last week despite a lowly 2.3 yards per rush average.
3 2 down 1 2-1-0
-4.5 Green Bay
Defensive injuries are a problem for the Packers heading into their bye, with Clay Matthews, Morgan Burnett, Sam Shields, Datone Jones and Letroy Guion all hurt.
4 3 down 1 2-1-0
-4 Pittsburgh
Mike Tomlin’s squad was as flat as a pancake in a nasty sandwich spot against the Eagles, coming off a big divisional win with Sunday Night Football vs. KC on deck.
5 4 down 1 1-2-0
-3.5 Arizona
Carson Palmer was sacked five times and threw four interceptions at Buffalo, looking just as bad as he did in his ugly NFC Championship Game performance at Carolina last January.
6 6 same 2-1-0
-3.5 Kansas City
The Chiefs defense scored two touchdowns in their win over the Jets. The offense has managed to put up only one TD in their last two ballgames combined.
7 7 same 2-1-0
-3.5 Seattle
Doug Baldwin showed no ill effects from his knee injury and Jimmy Graham had his best game since last October in the Seahawks offensive breakout against the Niners.
8 9 up 1 3-0-0
-3 Minnesota
The betting markets continue to look at the Vikings as a second tier squad without Bridgewater and Peterson. I look at Minnesota as a legit Super Bowl contender.
9 8 down 1 1-2-0
-2 Cincinnati
Since averaging more than 12 yards per pass in the opener against the Jets, Andy Dalton has been held below seven yards per attempt, with only one TD in two games.
10 11 up 1 2-1-0
-2 Dallas
With their win against the Bears on Sunday Night Football Dallas only needs one more home win in their final six home games to exceed last year’s total.
11 10 down 1 1-2-0
-1.5 N.Y. Jets
The Jets are in the midst of a truly nasty scheduling stretch, with the Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and undefeated Ravens on tap over the next four weeks.
12 13 up 1 3-0-0
-1 New England
When Tom Brady returns, the Pats power rating will take a big jump. With third string QB Jacoby Brissett dealing with a bum thumb, the Patriots can only be considered ‘above average’
13 14 up 1 3-0-0
-0.5 Baltimore
Yes, the Ravens are 3-0. But they’ve won their three games by a combined margin of only 13 points against a trio of teams that are a combined 1-8 so far this season.
14 12 down 2 2-1-0
-0.5 Houston
Brock Osweiler failed his first road test with the Texans pretty badly. Perhaps there’s a reason that the Broncos braintrust – who knew him best – let him walk away.
15 17 up 2 2-1-0
0 Oakland
The Raiders offense was not sharp on Sunday, but a trio of key penalty calls (two flagged, one not flagged) in the final minute at Tennessee all went in their favor.
16 16 same 2-1-0
0.5 N.Y. Giants
Hilarious tweet from Sunday after Eli Manning threw his game ending interception: ‘Don’t worry about it Eli; you’re still penciled in for lunch with Peyton on Tuesday’
17 15 down 2 1-2-0
0.5 Tampa Bay
Up 20-10 late second quarter against LA, the Bucs fell apart on both sides of the football, letting a dormant offense march up and down the field against them.
18 19 up 1 2-1-0
1 Atlanta
We’re about to find out whether Atlanta’s 2-1 start is real. They’ve got games against the Panthers, Broncos, Seahawks and Packers over the next five weeks!
19 18 down 1 1-2-0
1.5 Detroit
Without the injured Ameer Abdullah, Lions running backs Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington have combined for only 161 rushing yards in three games.
20 22 up 2 2-1-0
1.5 Los Angeles
The Rams offense is still ranked dead last in the NFL, with only 788 total yards in three games. They did crack the 300 yard mark for the first time in the win at Tampa.
21 26 up 5 3-0-0
1.5 Philadelphia
Here’s one (of many) differences between TV talking heads and Las Vegas. You’re not going to see Philly ranked as a Top 10 team anywhere in Sin City, despite their hot start.
22 21 down 1 1-2-0
2 Washington
The Redskins are allowing a whopping 6.6 yards per play on defense, and they just lost cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Bashaud Breeland to injuries.
23 24 up 1 1-2-0
2.5 Buffalo
One week after getting gashed by the Jets, Rex and Rob Ryan’s stop unit forced five turnovers in a much needed blowout win over Arizona.
24 25 up 1 1-2-0
2.5 Indianapolis
Andrew Luck gets credited for another ‘come-from-behind’ win in the fourth quarter against the Chargers, but it was mostly TY Hilton in an impressive ‘catch & run’ game winner.
25 20 down 5 1-2-0
2.5 San Diego
Injuries continue to mount for San Diego, with key defenders Manti Te’o and Jahleel Addae the latest to suffer from the injury bug.
26 23 down 3 1-2-0
3 Miami
The Dolphins have outgained their opponents by an impressive 0.6 yards per snap this season. Every team with an equal or greater differential has a winning record.
27 27 same 0-3-0
4 Chicago
John Fox had MUCH better talent in Carolina and Denver when he made his Year 2 runs to the Super Bowl with those squads. No Year 2 Super Bowl for Fox in Chicago!
28 29 up 1 0-3-0
4 New Orleans
The Saints are now 14-21 SU since the start of the 2014 season, with 14 outright losses coming in games where they were favored. Did Sean Payton really deserve a $45 million extension?
29 28 down 1 0-3-0
4.5 Jacksonville
On a list of NFL Coaching ‘Hot Seats’, Gus Bradley’s name must be at or near the top of the list. Jacksonville is 12-39 since he got there.
30 30 same 1-2-0
4.5 Tennessee
In back-to-back weeks, Marcus Mariota led his team down the field for the game tying or winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Last week, it got called back on a penalty.
31 31 same 1-2-0
5.5 San Francisco
Don’t be fooled by the final score or the box score. The 49ers trailed the Seahawks 37-3 before a pair of late TD drives made San Fran’s stats and losing margin more respectable.
32 32 same 0-3-0
7 Cleveland
Cursed? Cleveland just lost a game because their kicker got hurt in walk through on Friday and his replacement missed a pair of field goals, including the potential game winner.

Power Ratings compute offensive and defensive statistics into one number for each team, while accounting for factors like recent performances and strength of schedule. Power Ratings can be used as a baseline for relative spread index to compare current or future match-ups between two teams. The relative spread does not account for non-statistical factors like home-field advantage, recent injuries, game time decisions, rivalries, publicity, and weather.