Handicapping the headlines: Betting this week's biggest stories

Bettors are behind Russell Wilson and the Seahawks in Week 1.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Aug 27, 2012 • 03:03 ET
Photo By - US PRESSWIRE
There is so much information out there these days, it’s tough for sports bettors to see the forest through the trees – or the good info from the bad info.

Some stories hitting your favorite media sources may seem like they’d have a huge impact on the odds for those teams involved. However, most of the time, these stories don’t register a blip on oddsmakers’ radars.

Here are three big stories from this week in sports, their impact on the odds, and how bettors should treat them when sizing up those teams’ matchups:

Story: Dodgers' deal with Red Sox brings Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford to L.A.

Odds: The Dodgers moved from 6-1 to 4-1 to win the World Series at the MGM Mirage, which opened Los Angeles at 50-1 to start the season. Most books are cheering against the Dodgers with a lot of futures money tied up in the team.

Reaction: Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage, says the deal puts Los Angeles head and shoulders above the rest of the National League West – on paper. “That’s an American League lineup in the weak-hitting NL West,” he told Covers. The Dodgers are currently two games behind the Giants in the division and four games back of the NL Wildcard lead.

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Story: The Seattle Seahawks have named rookie QB Russell Wilson their Week 1 starter versus the Arizona Cardinals.

Odds: Seattle opened as a 2.5-point road underdog at Arizona in Week 1 but is now as big as a 2.5-point favorite in Las Vegas.

Reaction: According to Stoneback, the line move has everything to do with public money pounding the Seahawks in Week 1. Books didn’t make any initial adjustments to the Wilson announcement have been forced to pump up Seattle’s spread due to the consistent flood of action over the preseason. Stoneback says a lot of that has to do with the Cardinals’ troubles at QB this preseason.

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Story: Notre Dame suspends starting tailback Cierre Wood for the first two games of the season for violating team rules.

Odds: The Fighting Irish are 16.5-point favorites versus Navy for their Week 1 meeting in Dublin, Ireland. The early total is sitting at 57 points.

Reaction: Oddsmakers didn’t want to overact to the news of Wood’s suspension and didn’t budge on the spread despite the fact that not only will Notre Dame be without its top returning rusher but also its starting QB, Tommy Rees, who was suspended for the opener last month. “They’re a much better team and who knows if (Wood) would have even played three quarters. It would be different if (Notre Dame) was playing LSU or USC or someone like that,” says Stoneback. The total, however, has dropped from 58.5 to 57 at some online markets.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600. His best advice for bettors new and old is; Handicapping isn't a one size fits all process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.

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